Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Americans Dislike How Trump Is Handling The Crises
Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm deal injury. It's been two weeks since George glory died after a Minneapolis police officer in yield on his knack for more than eight. And protests in big cities and small towns have continued to attract crowds across the country. President trump has so far exacerbated tensions and threatened to deploy the US military to quell protests by American citizens. Now his standing in the polls and with some high profile members of his own party are showings of weakness. So we're gonna talk about how trump is weathering the current crises politically. Also gonna take a look at the relationship between young protesters and the democratic pardon. Do they support the party nominee and already likely to vote this fall and here at meet to discuss that our editor in chief meets over any. Hey everybody. Also addressing a politics writer Clara Malone he choir. And managing editor Michael Collins and Mike and you know. So before we get to Trump's standing in the polls which. Seems like everyone's talking about Al watts of new polls coming out. We are still in the middle of a global and so let's take a minute to check in on the corona virus trends adds we've been doing these past an extra three months now. So there's some question as to whether these pro task. Were older activities that are kind of breaking our social distancing will lead to an uptick in keys. Knee what trends are we seeing generally and is it too early to tell if the protests are having any act. So what's her with a general question Omnia. In general there is a mix. Good news and more challenging news right Tom the good news is that we have pretty consistently seen a decrease. And the number of people that are dying. Report is dying each today. Has now fallen to an average of about 800 per day it's hired during the week ordered weakens that 802% and average. And that's down from around 2000. At the peak. The other metrics though our our maybe mourn a plaque token that the number of new cases it's more of a plateau. There are more tests being done so the positive test rate. Has fallen slightly but not by much on. And it's very regionally dependent. Where in general some regions it did not get hit hard but for worse of for example when state looks pretty bad right now is. Arizona didn't have a bad first wave to a call that the clearly. Casing to be increasing terrorism. The south for all the scrutiny. On the south in the media actually the south did not have very have been operational for urban CDC some states where. We're acting senior be growing you can get lots of debates about exactly which states are in which categories. But. If you take the region as a whole than. Cases are growing a bit positive gesture that posit histories constant but still some metrics like hospitals nations seem to be increasing in some states. So the problem it was all this data is. Backward looking bye. A period of a couple of weeks. And so now we don't really know yet. What effects the protest will have and the protests come a time when there are much broader. Re openings. I'm not sure on this podcasts or mimic Twitter feed I where people few weeks ago about him like. What Georgia and Florida are doing now is a few things are opening their not many customers yet people being very careful. We're now in a much deeper phase of reopening where many things are reopening people are trying to live like back to normal both in red states and Blue States to some extent. On top of that you have the protests. So you have a lot. Of stuff going on line people are now kind of trying to get back more toward normal. Even New York City is opening reopening in a very candid waited eight within two weeks I think restaurants New York McBeal and the city. So. So yes we are gonna. Get a lot of data. On how much different types of events affect transmission. But there seems to be more fatigue with social distancing. There's anecdotal accounts about the team with mask wearing even. So you know look if you're just really backward looking and ignore anything else happening but I doubt she might be somewhat optimistic but the problem is like. You know there's there's uncertainty here but the basic math is that if people are engaged in activities that don't involve. Distancing. And those are all threats it start increasing transmissions again. India. Are so. Again as we say often when we checked and on the trends in corona virus cases and doubts. You know rule keep documents and we'll see what happens going forward but a good marker to put down there except understand how all these things are factor yet. We have were more ingredient as a show that covers politics and covers the news. The mere fact. That all of a sudden. There. Is as much focus. On coded. Could also potentially. Affect people's behavior. You know I don't want to get too much in the politics of how kind of public health people of message to round of protests. But all of a sudden we're seeing him S to now about like harm reduction or balancing risks. And it's kind of different then. The distance this assistance very consistent message we've heard before or in the mere fact that. You know we're not talking as much about cove it could affect behavior to -- that people could just you know look. They're lot of countries around the world. Weird the US obviously connected agree job in her locked down phase. Their record is it to be be worse rookies were actually some growing and they are opening up also so it's just a matter of like people I think have decided that like we're doing two astronauts this and then. And they were kind of done but there's applicant fingers crossed nature business. The reaction to reopening on. The liberal end of the spectrum has obviously been acting more cautiously even if you like the Democrats right there. There are nervous about doing their convention where trumpets you know looking to leave Charlotte because he wants have an in person convention. And then obviously you know I think people on the left end of the spectrum are probably seemed more often at those these protests that are happening this week. And it is you see either real discomfort with public health experts. Giving a full throated like don't go out to these protests right. Because you have. In a eel have a lot of PP people of color who are in public health gored who are medical professionals who will say. Well I'm weighing the choice here and niceties that. The threats my safety is police violence and I understand that there's also this epidemic going on but that it's a really tough. Conversation to have the public health expert as a medical professional as a person going to the protests. And I'm not shared. How people are reconciling I think in some ways people are kind of saying. These hierarchies of tiny part this is this a higher give my needs and I think I'm in more danger from the place that I am from current Paris. It's also complicated by the fact that as we don't know. Coded as you know there higher rates of mortality from common among you know. Black communities the Latino community so that makes an album more complicated. I mean look I have. Heard a lot of criticism from public health people oh people should be playing. Armchair. Epidemiologist. I think there a lot of public health and we're playing armchair moral philosopher and armchair sociologist and armchair political scientist. And they would be better off. Just talking about. Were to the risks right. The risks are that if you go outdoors it's good art Hercules and spread at last some people are mostly wearing masks and that's good but screaming and shouting. Can cause issues some people are not wearing masks a few. Also some police activity like tear gas or whatever and potentially. Spread the fires I'm just concerned about misting that like that like now there's been some credibility. That has been lost. With we do have big second waves later on. And I don't know I mean look. I guess and on a little bit of a rain here but as someone who. He's evolved in politics. And involved in journalism. People like the four of us have liked pretty cute ears to picking up on when a message might come across. As partisan and win it right now right you kinda have to. As a journalist because you're navigating his ticket to their lots of debates and journals especially on issues like race right about what's it mean to be. Objective right there it doesn't you very sensitive to like. Listening carefully to messages and having some intuition is what's the art room bubble for like house will be perceived by the average American. And my tuition will be proven right or wrong remedy later on is that the average American will detect some inconsistency. In the message or the very least. Tech mixed messages and be a little bit confused by this and I think there could have been ways to phrase things we're you know what I actually don't care that much about your. Peeing about the protests. I want to know about public health risks right if you say they're not that bad piece of their way to reduced and then great right but like. I don't know I think the average American is Gannett. Gonna be a little bit less inclined to kind of view this advice is being nonpartisan. And and we minorities in reactions from politicians Republicans along those lines saying that mrs. conflicting so we'll see how much that does. And trickled monitor broader public opinion or effort or reader but. We have a lot to this customers so I want to move on. And talk about Trump's standing nationally it's a little less than five months until Election Day. And president trumpet is now struggling to address the pandemic and also anti police violence protests. Who Howell clear would you describe the president's standing native American. In one word. In one more. Tent yes. And you were a parent where at Michael what's your one board. Now go the last name but we're literally code named him nail over your royal Albert bit. Worsening. Tenuous rates that's the best word she won it's over. Michael afterward. And this is dead it worsening. Actually think tenuous understates. The has problems a little bit so violent day. How it's day. Crap. Crap. One way to dig a little bit deeper into how net does that excitement scale and we get nothing next. I been and. Why. Trump is. So do to look at polling numbers you know there. You tried to still I think performing better than I not say. Factors and had to do with who's better equipped to deal with the economic recovery rate things in that kind of column of about concerns. But in in what I would categorize as a guest like the leadership columns. Which I think a lot of people are worried about America right now. Trump does not do well so the idea of handling a pandemic crisis handling V. Racial police say crisis. Biden kind of gets better marks. And you know. The it fact that trump is receiving criticism has received criticism from members of his own party for things like. The. Clearing up the protesters the peaceful protesters off and square which allow happened last Monday I think it cut a few hours after we recorded this podcast we didn't actually talk about it. We trust you she pushed back from that from senators. You know or some of the senators did that thing where they say like oh I haven't heard about that fixing it for like forty hours afterwards would like they've heard about it you know because he are constantly watching TV. And happening if they're not going to put it either costly putting on their face and telling what's happening so. None of the Republicans wants to talk about Trump's leadership failure rate that kind is. Not at all subtle politics of hope I look at a church. You know I mean just really really clumsy. Photo ops and it's interesting because. I was talking with with someone about this theater. Week who's you know. A Republican and he said you know bases the Republicans are committed act. Image making right which is why I think this is so. Irritating to raise that that the Republican Party has been pretty definitely branding itself at at at making these. Plan. Photo op and murder these varied in each appeals to demographic groups and to trampling of the Bible and evangelicals is just kind of like. That's you that's your play. So at its frustration. With trap for his lack of leadership and partly that's kind of how I would put it down he still doing okay yeah economy parts stuff you know we're seeing a little evidence. Recovery there that's that's not too far. A little bit a comeback but. That's how I would kind of characterize it is that people lectured at stunned by his. Performance in the midst of really high pressure. Situations. America you set crappy. Yeah I mean I cannot act I agree with everything Claris. I think it's helpful to think about this question in in two different friends one is. Generally speaking how do Americans feel now trump and trump administration went to trump administration is doing I am. And choose the second frame is okay what does that mean for Trump's re election. Right. And I think when you. Put aside to re election part First Act and and then numbers are just not good for top you know he's always had pretty mediocre. Job approval. Numbers those have been. Atom. Trending towards the bottom and of that of a pretty hour range for the past years it's a narrow range but Seles. Turning to the bottom of of that range M. He gets negative marks for his handling. That pandemic which is one you know. Now that the one or two or three defining. Things of his presidency. Am. He gets narrower he gets negative marks for his handling of the protests. Which again vote vote likely end up being one of the defining stories of this presidency or at least his first term. In the only as Claire said the on the area which he gets. OK marts is the economy and if the economy doesn't. Improve. Foreigners for sustained amount of time. You would think that would that would change I don't know that well but when I am. Now does that mean. He's. Destined to lose in November no. You know because of the structural advantage trump is likely to get from the Electoral College. And because things can change. Then. Trump could win but like that fact you know top right now you know let's say. Trump first Bynum polls show. You know a few polls recently showed Biden out I've liked ten something right high quality phone phone polls right. If if this race possibly it's between like. Biden plus four and -- in plots fifteen. That would be reflective of a country and I'm not taking it well but that would be reflected that of a country in which trumpets net unpopular. And a lot of people think he's DeMint that job on a lot of things. But trump can still win at at Biden plots for right. Chuck and so we even out by the post five maybe six so it's like. And the. I mean can Chris is likely are different things and there is some evidence that like he can't agreed Nate -- just witness. Some of Biden's kids are actually with these kind of marginal white voters actually in that may be actually that might tend to close Electoral College cap a little bit I mean it's possible. Is there a world in which. Down from Lee's Cutler by five points and wins it electorate college. Yeah he be a pretty big underdog with a five point. Maarten. So I want to be pedantic here it. Yeah I mean. On top of that we also saw an. Holes come out this past week for example from NBC. The same on this at 80% of voters say things are out of control in the US. Might also showing that Biden needs by eight points in the battleground states. So it's not just like oh nationally and leading by ten or even double digits. Add but in the battleground it's still light or two or three point race it seems like the battleground states are also following this trend of Biden. Increasing. Race. Yeah that that battlegrounds Pope always followed but overall trend that is coming not to point the point is how out of whack are today. Width. With the the national trend. You know right now. You know we don't have our polling and polling averages up so right I don't wanna say it like what exact state of the races. But I still think it's a safe bet that. And that. Trump is but it but it just actually does make a truck may be. Maybe Biden has made gains for some of these groups to lessen the Electoral College advantage. I total totally buy that. I think it's more likely that the win Election Day happens trump will happen Electoral College advantage and Biden. Which is only to say that oftentimes I think when people talk about how Americans feel about trump. They do it in the context of the election and in the context of the election. Gassed used a conversation. Because. Likely voters are more right leaning ban. Registered voters were more bright meaning that adults and Electoral College we think is more right leaning even then likely voters overall right. So that's only plan it's making it's that to me the data is pretty on ambiguous that people. Mud amid charred in the country thinks it's out of control as he said. But that doesn't for close trump winning reelection. Doesn't seem like as people are asking. Is this a turning point does this high water mark for buy it and is it a new high water mark does show that he's picked up you know support from people kooky didn't necessarily have a few months ago. Like is this moment changing. Fundamentals of this general election. Well I think it's changing. Erase be seen what we'll say you know in late October but what that what the election has been out. But it seems like the election is starting to be about. Crisis. And how leadership handles crisis. So kind of the classic understanding of what a chief executive head of state is supposed to do it sort of the that's you know port storm. And pan. That could change me chop obviously wanted to be about. An economic recovery. We'll see what happens with that. I think you know obviously Brighton has to walk a line. Where he doesn't get painted as Biden doesn't want the economy to come back because he doesn't want trump to win right like acts which they could already see that coming out of that track him. But I do think fundamentally right now it is kind of it. A leadership election. Again it can change but it's interesting because like pattern I'm looking back at what 2016 was. It was kind of it was a race and gender election. And this election seems like it will also be it race. Election. Do you do you guys think that. So one thing it seems like the Danish his. There are. At least right now there are few were undecided voters show up in the polls. You know one reason trump won Friday it was undecided voters swung disproportionately. Hammond sixty. I am. There are fewer undecided voters in the Paul's and a bite in its polling at a higher. Forget his margin against trump he's pulling out a higher share of the vote. Ban that Clinton was at this point I think carried our friend Harry and that. Is that significant do we think do we think. Like army wants to say. But I think we've learned that Biden has a higher ceiling than Clinton said. May be cute is all this. Normal oil and crises hitting the country may be to gender. Time. But have we learned that. I mean. So yes I mean look I've I'm inherently. Worried that talks about ceilings ample hers and what that means. But it's definitely relevant that Biden. And trap if you were undecideds and Clinton and from patent when he sixteen was not just in the senate but we've policy and it. Terry Johnson was actually pretty sizable in some shall Stein vote. So. Yeah I mean having you know being ahead fifty to 43 is a lot different being had 44 to 37 which is kind of what we often sought with with Clinton. Yeah I'll look the general view would be that. Elections river toward the mean. It's a little hard to know what the media is in that country where. You know I think kind of objectively speaking there's a lot of disarray in the country right now right. So an economy although I actually got separately good jobs numbers on Friday. But still I don't know I mean look. If you're an election today evening. The polls a trumpet lose in a landslide right now the polls to be wrong. Although in this case in my mean wrong means that Biden wins barely enough landslide that buy into the Magid tsunami who knows right. But is a chance that by November. That things will it change strike just think about. You know I did not think. In on March 1. Action you're some. Where it corona virus then right to not think on photographers are going to be sitting here talking about something called corona virus. And the biggest kind of mass protests since 1968. Right. And so more things can change. Things can fade from the news cycle you know I'm not. In higher the actress likening Pearson changing attitudes around. Police in like actually pretty radical in some ways. Transformations about. How old white Americans in particular feel about racism and police force in mean the protesters should frankly like. Feel pretty excited by some of that data are and how much public opinion has shifted on these issues. With that said. There is example of like when you have some mass shooting where support for going control goes up for awhile. And then it kind of feeds and has a half life and kind of seats in the conversation. Over time right side I don't know that. That he's he's going to be completely top of mind for voters in. In November I mean you would think Covert would be this kind of because it doesn't seem like it just in an. Go away I know of no deputy ecological miles of disputed disappear spontaneously. Maybe kind of fades into the background in people frankly are used to. 800000 Americans died today in just kind of becomes part of the background noise select. Trip was already not doing great. And the two biggest issues or things that he it's very poor marks on and frankly I think he's kind of not handled it very well I understand why Americans don't like is covered response they understand why even before work. Anything else right there is already great sources about how trump would handle issues related to race relations or elect his worst polling issue pretty much. Yeah. So and el Amin. Well I just asked I guess last I want to ask lastly here before we move on and talk about the democratic party's relationships with younger protesters. Is we saw you know the bushes come out where a statement supporting. Essentially the protests we saw. A former secretary of defense madness criticized the president for his use of force for about Bible photo op. Are we saw Lisa Murkowski say she struggling with whether or not to vote for the president in the fall. Does trump a losing support from. You know some of these Republican leaders. Or even if they end up endorsing Biden. Does that change anything or you know didn't support him in 2016 so it doesn't make a difference a base apartment. But how big of a deal. I mean I bush isn't George W. Bush said he's not and a there's report that he's not gonna vote for trot but my question that is like. Does that give the current base of the Republican Party. The Republican Party at trapattoni Tony's very different in the Republican Party that bush you know won a primary and in 2000. Which would have won between sixteen primaries he ran his 2000 campaign. You know. So. Maybe twenty Tony is just kind of the final. Period where you know you're shaking out the dust and all the Republicans who may be. Should have left the party quote unquote in 2016 because they disagree with Trout are sort of like I had it this is the breaking point. Now do those people move. White college educated women even more so it might need the answers to its I doubt but I but I am kind of like. It's both surprising. That you know. Colin Powell's you know all these Ali is really high profile former GOP officials. Saying like now. He's not for me that's extraordinary but it's also varied. Logical. To meet because they represented completely different Republican Party. Yeah I think I think that's rate and I think it it's amazing in it and have a historical sweep sort of way am. I think there's a big difference between what we're seeing now. And what. It would take to really happened a big effect like I think actually this type but game. You know Republican Party elder statesman elder states women and and and you know even beyond even beyond like the usual suspects that you kind of expect. And not. Back trump you know the creeks a little more like Lisa Murkowski is a little more surprising than Colin Powell for example right. By. I think it's a big difference for example between. Voicing reservations about trumped. Saying you're not gonna vote for Tom. And saying you're gonna vote for by it and like we know that voters. To take political cues. From political leads. I don't think they take those cues when their super subtle bright and so you're saying. I mean just in there's also wing which it just doesn't stand right if you're saying hey trumpets this once in a lifetime threats democracy. But I'm not gonna vote for pie and I can't bring myself to do that then it's like. Well okay what what's really going on here right. They did the last announcement says like class absolutely right. That. You know Colin Powell Lisa Murkowski. Mitt Romney or not to move the Republican babies time. But the Republican base trump space is 3540%. Of the electorate. So it's more it's more question about you know those super thing. White women are other swing voters. Adam who I think they could move if it was a forceful things right. But they don't like to. Right but he's sorry just it just hop on her second like. These guys us. I mean for tick bullish he was got Republican president if any. Nady made publicly endorsed Biden and I'll eat my shorts but like this guy all also probably. Believes that you know four years from now. The party will have a very different nominee or that's like. You know that's his optimistic thing and he doesn't want people throwing back in the states like hey you endorse the Democrat last time. Like I think that meet that. There are people who believe that the truck that it viable Republican Party that looks different exist beyond trop. And I would say for her you know Republican not president might believe that and so. You can kind of understand the strategy of them not wanting to endorse bite. But also say people can get it people can read between the lines and say it like there's another choice. But I petite Claire with this kind of thing I don't think people to read between the lines I guess that's kind of my point is like when you're talking about trying to influence the masses. You know like beat groups of people. Stupid. People expect sort of seat like. There's huge big candidates I am not voting for one it's not seek to me it's night and about its Knight in about. But voters making that interpretation per say it's more about. How is the media covering this story what is like the general climate and I guess what I'm saying is to me it takes. To meet to me it would take like. You know when we start seeing like Diego. 42 point fine headlines across the Washington Post its say Republican Party attendance trump you know. If you're held the election. Two days after the Access Hollywood tape drop I think he I think Clinton went one right. That's not where we're seeing in a there's this New York Times article. Am. That was just night. You know far Republican leaders like former speaker's faulty Bryan and John Boehner won't say how they will vote and some Republicans were already did disinclined to support mr. trump. Are weighing whether to go beyond backing up third party contender to openly endorsed mr. Biden retired military leaders who have carted their private political views. Are increasingly voicing their unease about the president's leadership. But are unsure whether to embrace his opponent. On thing it's like that kind of candidate in this I don't think it's strong enough to happen be outlook Toro impact at least. Right that you would also think that if any of these leaders ever let's take George W for example if he did actually want to endorse art you would probably expect it in the fall may be. And so if he worked you heat and warm ups were to endorse Joseph buyer and Oakley is very unlikely. Does that make a difference. A full throated kind of like across the Washington Post New York Times says you know former President Bush endorses general part. Or is the Republican Party so different and media independent voters care so little about George W virus that. I mean I'm not suited to make any proclamations that out it. That did the result would be but like I think that there's also an argument be made perhaps that. Could also be interpreted as they'll stay home voters we'll stay home and kind of encouraging to stay home we'll voters staying home under certain demographic. Have an effect on Trump's pots I don't know. Maybe I mean it's kind of like that's kind of what. In it we talk a lot about. Black letter she stayed home in 2016. Could there be white voters stay home and 20/20 that are that an eyewitness bat for track I mean you kind of saw that I think. I think temple menace in Alabama in Taiwanese and team. Where where some more right with remarks on people like us protect Jones the Democrat. LA I'm not gonna vote because I don't vote for right more needy exit maybe that's faction of people at BP. You know Republicans and big names in the Republican Party. Either saying it they provide endorsing that there there could captain ray in you know right in their wife's name whenever. Maybe the fact. It's we're keeping in mind that. Republicans do have other incentives apart from trump. Being president right. If you're Meyer Republican. U2. Might white trump if he's gonna lose. To lose badly because then that will discredit in theory. His style politics going forward. You also have races for congress in both the house and the senate are content of this year and so. You could kind of like a Democrats for Nixon thing sees some Republicans. Break with prep as a way to. Save themselves and try to save. The senate or at least. Prevent Democrats meaning Titanic marked for the can do all the public policy stuff that Republicans really don't like. C could get to tipping point where. Trump is seen. As a lost cause and and they want to kind of keep pushing him to homeward. That's not that's not crazy I'm I don't like where there them now in. In June. Let's move on and talk about how young people are thinking about this fall's election. To these protests young people have been showing up to anti police violence protests Ian. Large number switches. Have been discussing a largely left leaning crowd. But former vice president Joseph Biden didn't do well what young martyrs during the primary and Democratic Party leaders like former President Obama to release urging protesters that they also have to vote if they want change. So kind of taking this. Some something up like a conflict or tension between. Biden's appeal whereas older voters and the more Alison part of the parties are moderate part of the party and all of this energy. Amongst the more progressive side of the younger part of the party you know how do young people right now. Viewed the Democratic Party and its presidential nominee Joseph. You think me. I think the youths. Our. Number one not thrilled with Joseph Biden and number two not to throw the Democratic Party as an institution mean let's not forget that. Into east scene and when he when he imposed years and each split was the most significant split in the party. Now the utes though are also. Not very big fans of president Donald Trump. And they are fans by and large. Anti racism in ending. Train and police brutality right and so I think in that way. The protests. From. Our may be helping to energize. The kind of multi. Racial coalition of younger liberals. And so you know part of the trick for Biden is. Can you harness that without. Taking positions that might not be as popular among kind of your independence or whatnot. But I mean Ian obviously years. If your Biden you know machinators NB seldom. Gigantic wave of enthusiasm from young voters were heightened by there's a lot of anti trap enthusiasm. And needled and that like and that he's an English class ferries from college building and that it. I mean Obama in twin the 2008 and sixteen Obama and two eight. Obama himself created a lot. Youth enthusiasm right that was kind of the big thing with the Obama campaign it let it got cool but it made it may be kids care about voting again. I don't think Biden's going to be that. Candidate but I do wonder if the protests themselves. Could be that Stanton. For like. Okay you're not enthused about Biden like. The protests are your candidate right and so you're gonna. You're gonna vote for the guy who's being the most proactive for the protests in at it like to the protest will be the end of beating force rather than the candidate it's himself. I see that happening I could see this being a year where. You know. I think the black eyes the moon for black lives has is ism where. It's Richardson's 2014. You know meet the kid. Patent it could help with registration or turnout efforts right like there's a lot of stuff that's it let's Kosovo act you. We don't actually know how November's election really outlook from the logistics of it. And there's a lot of hurdles to overcome. Without a vote by mail election Catholic act online organizing. But I could see the protest replacing the candidate in terms of wearing suits they're port and there. Then there's the VP pick as well potentially if you look at that America says they say there's a 70% chance of Biden will pick a African American woman. To be his running mate. Due I think to mean the youth of America were also not huge come Al Harris fans for example. But. That may echo potentially. You know both come Harrison dealt lemmings have kind of hit a background in law enforcement writes could also kind of say accurate deliberately kind of after waiting in saying this is an issue when it put front and center through Enron people about the protest too and remind people about. Trumps handling of those right. So you know you may see an echo in the VP panic. Yeah. I mean. What's responsible. For. This split. Between older and younger voters in the Democratic Party and you see it wants bowl. White voters and in particular black voters where I didn't really kind of while not primary performed really well in south Carolina at least based off large support from black voters. And largely older black borders but then you don't see younger black murderers as enthusiastic they were as enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton either. What's going on here like why why as the parties have split generational. The it's it's a super interesting question and much either you can spend. 200 hours. Transit pick apart. I I think that one of the premise of the year part part of the promise of your questions Ocalan has important which is like I do think it's it's mostly about the Democratic Party. And not about Biden and particular like Biden's basically running about where Clinton did it Cuba each side. HP's demand that rhetoric with with the older predators. To me one of one of the and and making Clinton regarding that but when it defining. Differences between. Between young burgers and older Brothers on the left is just a relationship to light. Institutions. And the establishment. And there's there's far less faith. In both of those things. And a mountain. Younger partners I mean think if your younger brother ray. He is now seeing establishment. You know. Depending on your page script the Iraq War. Scorer the Great Recession. Continually not respond. Again talking about young artist on the left there. Two gun violence. The news team and continuing not respond to police per adult brutality and vulnerable communities. Adam. And now you've seen. Chaotic response to. A pandemic. And the resulting. Recession you know it's in a lot of ways it's very understandable that they would. It would happen on a fate like Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer right. Said that I think his is one debate differences aside the young voters take it far less for granted. That the people in charge had any idea what their. Jack who compete complained them. And the fact that like you know you have. For younger people you don't have the income growth that you see right. And so it's it's. It's tricky. I mean people the right keep looking reading the stories about. Since like 20082009. Have been writing stories about public. The millennial generation and now I question the will never be able to build up the wealth of you know gen X lakers'. And let those those stories have been like a solid. John Herrera of media coverage fair the tired decade I've been median. Yeah so I mean is it fair to say that this is different like to young people always disengage from the voting process and might show up. Ian smaller numbers. To. Holes or is there something unique art artifacts hasn't happen. Four. I know I think it's pretty normal for for young people. A not turn out an epic numbers and also for them not to like. The establishment and you know thank goodness for that right imagine house their product yourself to be if hikes if young people was like oh yeah this in straight let's keep telling them right. You can tell so. So the most is that different it did kind of platinum way that you had. An usually large splits. With the democratic primary each the last two races it was kind of erratically around. Bernie Sanders who has no spring chicken himself. You know we should say to my. One difference in this first when he. Sixteen is is that Sanders. It seems to have a warmer relationship. With by many had with Clinton and has been. An ornery mitigate risks seem a little bit less equivocal. In kind of endorsing Biden and and supporting that it. Democratic nominee speaking out against trump and stuff like that and so that might be a factor at the margin as well. Sorry actually I I agree with Nate that for the most part young voters. You know not turning and out not turning out she. I agree with Nate that for the most part young voters not turning out at the rates that older groups do is is norm all and also young voters. Dick's trusting the establishment right atom is pretty normal that's at night. As Claire said it's beginning in this segment. Obama was really popular among young voters they still in turn out at super high res. But but of bomb or or Bill Clinton for example. Like it is different. To have. You know I think in the case of a bomb Clint and the last two democratic presidents. You hacked and it did democratic nominees. Was the botanic wet to very least was acceptable. And in some in some circles was the preferred choice a young Democrats as opposed Hillary Clinton Adam and Joseph eyes and so that's. I mean you know invite my mom we can we have a whole conversation about boomers vs millennial. Resentment in in clamor agents and don't you tell all the time. The fifth but I do think the fact that there has been in this kind is in the Democratic Party in particular this sort of boomer. Strangle hold off on who becomes the nominee you know obviously for that. This is not it is the Republicans are not meeting their young people but I think you know people say. At least they were giving you know move rubio and Ted Cruz yet they had they had gotten the hype for the four years leading up between sixteen went back out. But the idea that it addition to being very diverse this year's democratic primary fields with out you know. All things considered. And the Democrats accusing it says six I think I'd actually tool to be a boomer. So. Silent Generation. What is silent on a generation and a yeah I don't yet because he's too young to be at greatest hitters. I wanna yes I want a pitcher reality but the Big Brother star reality show where you'd get like two or three. Really like. That's like Italy we have my dad's generation. To the oldest Brothers manager Jack acts. For us the rest of us there yes see that's the case declares famine will star in the realities when you get like two or three people from each generation. And then had them compete in challenges and cooperate on try to operate on that thing though and talk about the acute. Nearly 10-Q accumulated wealth exactly yeah. Home. All right so. I guess you can get that agreement Brian. But. You know. You Brothers of a little bit at the beginning apron then how now does Biden kind of straddle. This energy on the last that is pushing for things like deep on the police are abolished the police and even some movement on that. You know are on the local level we saw at Minneapolis over the weekend it restored to disband its police and put together some kind of difference. Law enforcement community. Sports etc. Verses you know. Majority of the party which it is. You know middle aged older etc. Is how much of a risk is that for him and and is that just like. A narrative like oh well if he if you talk if he spends pays too much energy to you. The protesters then he'll lose the older voters and vice Versa because not a real elect coral. Tensions there. I think it's actually the part of politics that. That Biden is good at. These kind of understanding where he can optimize its position relative to different constituencies. Tan and getting the message out who it is now we some most. Eloquent or some news. But usually is very functional and practical. Relative to different forces that are going on him. Slow look I think. Joseph Biden on that. Say defund the police probably at some point he'll say now I do not believe in defending. The police say do you believe oh in reforming the police are curtailing the power rate there are some sixty she's around. Police unions that are I think interesting and kind of how you handle how you handle those. But how Biden will. Try to trying to allay in a probably actually win a pre regulating by taking positions that are. That are relatively far her. Until after more radical than what you would have had Obama take for example Obama in an and he talked to was. Was good and some of those issues. But it probably stick out of this that's in the left. But what actually seemed to people. Like it's relatively moderate Embarq as a people are sympathetic to the cause of police reform. And B because. Because you'll have the left right. And by and we'll be able to say hey look I'm not forward you know. Abolishing the police that's ridiculous but I am for this right. And so you know that's again I think it's us that's the stuff that Biden I think does packet net. Credit Taurus always finding a way to find the center of gravity. In his party and not seeming like he's extreme. Which by the way also nasty with. Gender and race rightly think of white men can get away with now. I'm framing a more liberal position or more conservative positions beamer moderate. By but yeah. Perry bacon junior much of our senior writers write this in a piece about Biden's ninety ideology for the senate but if you look back at pines record. What really distinguishes it isn't this constant. Set. Beliefs or ideological. You know precepts right it's that he has kind of been an Indian middle or mainstream of the Democratic Party his entire career right. And so. The combined forces. The end iMac and over the resulting recession. And the need. To respond to those by the government and now these protests. Am. The force that will exert on bargain pulling him that left plus Sanders right. There is like a good chance that that if Biden wins he ends up basically has the most liberal democratic president. In in modern US history right. Which is incredibly fascinating considering he won has has the moderate right I am but he does shift based on the circumstances. I mean what's also interesting about all that stuff is obviously. Last summer. We were all talking about Biden and his crime bill. Work right he it's. History that Cory Booker in particular. Connolly parents are basically being bad on rates may. And did it defense in the black you know in the black community older black activists were right behind him Cliburn particular. Sort of saying you have to understand the politics of the ninety's and where we were. We are at a black communities just white politicians in Washington. But it does. I think you can look at this this situation to a.'s turn the poignant by it's either your redemption story arc. Saying I'm on the right side now I understand my past rounds. Or it's and I'm comfortable. Sticking point for you and you get. Asked questions about your record why would she do anything about this before hand and you don't know how to answer it. Without being defensive. And I think there's you know there's been a lot of talk been. The world in slack channels and on Twitter and in real life of people saying. Kind of this white people shouldn't be defensive about what they did in the past exchange in the future and Biden's candidates interest in perfect encapsulation of what's happening. Wits. What politicians and power white people in power whatever wait wait. Majority workplaces whatever it might be. And he does have a tendency to get defensive when asked about it is record a lot of things not to streets. Up until very recently rightly or prematurely in the got just a couple podcasts ago. So I am very interested to see how Brighton. Carries on once people ask the inevitable questions about his record on race crime in and how and how that's different than the summer. Which got pretty. You know. Ugly for my. So. That's not to hear that there but it's something that I'm certainly watching for on this. One question is can trump. The string together. Coherent messaging that we'd try to probe these witnesses against Biden. Or not. And the not lucky either because there's too much other news or because he's from payments is not something that he's necessarily. Like physically capable of. Rea peninsula wrote and in 2016. That was a thing right we saw ads on social media accusing Hillary Clinton. You know letter acts creditors. Yet exactly. Angela is bad is like. We have seen that used as a way to try to keep our orders home in the fall. And you knew what I had surprising if that was also a tactic used this ball but now it's a question of well is that. Com or useful. Workable masses after a hole like. Used US military piece. I mean it's for salaries that an amateur will be different winners against Clinton. To sinister enemy asked of stocked in the air right. Even though was an ordinary focus. Was I think quite. Effective. Right. But disappear like the same is true for Biden I guess people. Are just more cling to seem as generic Democrat public Biden's favorable ratings are not are not actually very good. But they're a little better than Trump's and also people who dislike both candidates are mostly voting they claim for Biden this time but like but I do think like. This general. Kind of and I think Kurt needs to be a little bit more or surgical. But with Biden. Because we've seen that stuff doesn't stick to Biden. As much people give him the benefit of the doubt more African mediators in the benefit him. A little bit more that the Clinton. And people must focus on trumpeting there was so much going on line right and so likes. Trump tweet about sleep Biggio while I was at sleepy Joseph and not sloppy Joseph. So I think that last point won't break through is much when it's where it is time. That last point from may not the sloppy Joseph one to declare them to point the point about. You know all the talk about oh is it a choice or referendum I think that can be overdone. Com. But certainly trumped as the president and so it's more of a referendum. This year that it was and 2016. And to the extent that Napster news and I think just any attack on died in becomes less. Lesson motivating factor right. And I do to answer in its original question. I don't think trump can do that I think Trump's campaign can. I'm Dave shown. Pretty. Smart and had her ability. To do this kind of stuff. Until certainly try and happened. All right well I think. That's horrible leave things for today Alice and nobody else has thoughts on. Biden's relationship with the utes. And power relates to of these protests. He should start trying to play the saxophone. That would I think that would basically win and the election. Like bill where. Have worked before. You know this is the testing it. Recently every watched the the SNL skit where Bill Clinton goes into the McDonald's on a campaign. It is so funny. And it's it's like. It's very the classic it's also very evocative because Isaac such that it memories of those styrofoam. McDonald's containers. Just like. Any erect. Look at people. All right well deserts aren't it was there's likely to ferret freaking me. If you Galen thanks collecting skiers and and thank you Micah thank you. My name is Gail entered Tony chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com. Else of course greeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show beavis or reading a review in the apple podcasts or or tell someone about us thanks for listening and. I.
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