Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire
Hello and welcome to this New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 530 of politics podcast. I'm Gil injury and we actually have results for you guys tonight the networks have called the race for Bernie Sanders. And as of recording this podcast it looks like Bernie Sanders has 26%. Booted it has 24%. Klobuchar has 20%. Then there's a significant drop off with a Warren coming in at 9% and Biden coming in at 8% so let's talk about those results kind of clause to those result annals of what they mean going forward your need to do that our editor in chief in its over how the talent. Are going great Arthur where it's actually room I'm happy that we're actually. Here at midnight and not at 3 AM. Meet him and alls here at us is senior products are under Kremlin Harriet in coming back from the booted judge rally that was that. You know after a couple hundred people student gym for four hours it takes and certain smell the dead. At a patsy. The kind of analysis but you don't get from watching TV for all clear and asked as elections analyst Jeffrey skelley Harrier and doing great Gottesman resolves to talk about something now we actually have data this time. OK so let's start with this. How did the results come to be job I know that you've been looking into the exit polls all night looking at cross tabs and just trends across the states are described the picture for a but where did Klobuchar get her support from where did who digits gave his support from and then ultimately what Sanders across the front. Well I mean there and minorities again until I mean I think you know one of the sores and is the club the charge for reasons just radical cents. Clovis search clover charge or otherwise make grammatical sends. Its name never ever. I grabbed every well. Obviously those sirens it's the surprise of the night army was not surprising given that trend. We saw a poll numbers but obviously she outperformed her polls. Much more than ousted. So. For one thing she she did very well among moderates she actually one. Among college educated voters including college educated women which might help explain why Elizabeth warrant and is so well. Bombs said those are some examples the judge also did very well against them among moderate voters. Also like high income voters. And among late insiders Klobuchar actually did very wells so and people said the debate mattered which maybe says something that. Wants it to be really that I don't like I was saying on the post debate podcasts debates don't matter so will have to get back in touch with him when we're back in New York. But one final the Nazis at the point about Sanders. Where was his support coming from obviously mr. tiger is younger voters and more progressive voters desire to hold up did he win young voters. Yes he deathly money on one among young voters whereas Klobuchar won among older voters com. But among people who were locked and before last few days Sanders did very well he won among those voters. One among very liberal voters. They were they were all in on him pretty much and so that's how aliens of what this narrow plurality. And if you narrator for Sanders then you're sticker with satirist so Clair you were out the booted judge rally covering it is. I guess it seemed like somewhat of a victorious speech even if he came in sector and what were people talking about the rally what was them and the mood. What did these things it's I was split between what the voters are talking about what the people in the press risers are talking about and voters are certainly. You know I economy appoint ask. Booty its supporters in New Hampshire very white state in the continent was very light. Howdy sees past Ford after this state rate is Ian have any sort of viability. And so you know there's a discussion there if he's a winner as he's sort of proving tonight. Now he can win in other states I think the press corps was pretty interested in keeping it close eye on how close. The Buddha judge Sanders margin ones and in the end and it's going to be a necklace wrapped under two points exactly. And so so that was kind of the nude in the room was just curiosity about how close that was actually going to be asking excuse. Sanders and the region playing a little chicken with cable TV air time. Trying to see who could get the other speech on the air at you know last of the final word about the whole night. But I went to the attitudes gave a speech that was certainly victorious. Eddy Cue was actually. He's kind of a reserved. Cabinet members or person and I think he was actually. If not full Lonnie B clover sign but I am certainly joyful. His mother was there which is kind of a rare sightings so it was certainly. I think what they were what they want to see at a New Hampshire a class action. Knee we were talking earlier in the evening when on cable TV a lot of the commentary it was about Klobuchar. Andrew digits and you're like hey people are paying enough attention to Bernie Sanders so let's talk reverend Sanders what did you make of it has purports to. So we mean the issues they're like two versions of this right there's a version where once totally rational and we're starting out with. Popular Rus settlers the kind of corrected version but let me start with a corrected version that was how you led me to this question Brighton. Just on a fundamental level it did seem weird to me that a lot more hours being made about. Amy Klobuchar third place finish in people to take to second place finish in and turn. Morton about protecting a second then then Sanders in first. Because you could obviously start to you dissect that a little bit more. You can say for example that. This should have been a really good state for Bernie Sanders I agree. He dropped off a lot from my sixteen I agree although a multi candidate race and it and it. Two can it racer a little bit hard to compare right. Did he got 60% he's not closing well with late to insiders night I agree I agree with Elvis you know he hasn't proven he can turn out new voters agree with all this. But the fact is also that like. New Hampshire is also a really good state. Forward people at a Chechen it's probably pretty it's different club which are like is the state has a lot of white people in fact a lot of college educated white people who are highly. Up to date on politics follow a lot of news that's kind of their core constituency so to me. Nobody has won a state outside of Canada comfort zone however Bernie has finished. First of one of these states and kind of tied for first we don't actually know with the delegate winner of Iowa yet by the way delegates are tied New Hampshire tonight right alike you know. And Bernie is the by all indications. He candidate who has. I suppose the best chance of doing well in other states. We have temples of Nevada and South Carolina in an airline time we know that Sanders is. Probably leading in national polls. We do know that his coalition it is. Is actually fairly diverse its diverse racially it's. Not diverse age wise which is interest thing right but he has like a lot of support of all races voted under forty or 45 or so. We know he has a lot of money right. You know also. If you kind of 11 half states. And you're that lead in national polls and you've raised the most money of any non billionaire. I mean in some ways I think the reason why I and take your point it but people should be paying attention to the Sanders win. But I also think this state was kind of about who lost and who was a surprise to go to stars a surprise but I think Biden and Warren were. You know the fact that he didn't. Meet the delegate threshold was acting pretty surprising to people and I think that Klobuchar got the bump and attention in part because of the war in. You know really Porsche Porsche. Yes are you need 15% of course to get delegates and Warren got nine Biden got out of time of this recording. Will like what on earth. Happen I mean by didn't we obviously saw his poor performance in. Iowa and I think people were almost already writing the script for tonight he went to South Carolina for tonight's results instead of actually staying in New Hampshire Biden did. But what happened with Wharton. You have a sense of kind of weird the campaign is acts. Clarence. I think EU. I think the argument that people are using about Warren. On two fronts about her electability is really catching on with voters. On the one front people say a you know what's you know should we really kind of nominee. You these are the she did you hear from actually really nominate a woman this time around AM and here Klobuchar voter to think he's nominate a woman. You kind of freaked out by her progress of his own and I think that that the warns progress of his and and I think those attacks have been really effective on her campaign the past couple of weeks I think they said this earlier last week the kind of were leaked to get into the post Iowa meet Blake narrative scraping. And that's kind of may be hurt them a little bit here. So it's kind of an interest in on the margins sort of thing net Jeff did you see. Anything else about Biden and Warren's. Performance. In the polls let paint us a picture of what went wrong. Well I mean I mentioned it earlier but if you look at college educated voters switch. You. A control. You know Leighton 2019. Looked like a really good area for Elizabeth Warren in terms of support. And tonight amnesia adept. Losing. And didn't do very well among them in Klobuchar and of winning among cottage converters and college educated women. So if your. If you're trying to figure out how Warren could win she needed those Texas voters and she didn't really get them nearly the levels and I think we expected and maybe some of that. Most illuminating because of electability concerns like Claire said Tom butt and if you look at the numbers assists. Kind of and it's a clear weakness for. I mean if you're in New Hampshire. People are super tune into news coverage since it pertained to the polls and like a war in earlier denied. Did not get favorable coverage out of Iowa and even though she Peter polls finish in third place. I don't think she performed particularly well. At the debate may be more importantly voters in our poll with if Sosa gear she usually it's really good numbers yet mediocre numbers this debate armed. You know it's like kind of a math problem right if you have. Three candidates who are sending. We're Sanders and go to church co won Iowa. Also they both of well in the debate according to our poll. Klobuchar. Fifth place in Iowa some how got momentum from that because we get from the debate to three carats were taking votes rather candidates there's like only so many votes. To go around but I was some of the minor candidates you know none of the gab birds and they gangs who dropped out in the pack picks and and then it's right. Most of them actually suck it up from their poles to and so really was a question of like OK here are three courses that are moving forward and you can pick one of them. Two would have been he was overlap a lot but we there are different wrinkles here you know Warren does well among college educated voters if you're though someone is as I want a experienced. Women senator or just experienced. Center period is kind of within the broad mainstream. Of the Democratic Party. In Warren and Klobuchar worked pretty well right if you're highly taking a list of of moderate vs. Liberal positions on a much of issues than maybe not like that's not how. A lot of voters think and so the so rapid transfer for both Buddha cherished good judge and Klobuchar. So long name striking a match if they become like. DP and and president not gonna happen. Taylor greeted with attached to the Chris problem okay we've I want us today we gotta we got a few clos but analogous. It's problematic. So I had somebody suggesting at an email on Twitter that we should be describing undecided voters at booted it rallies as booty experience. I don't know if that's appropriate for the mistake it's lay and the plot is very edited anyway on. Humans and Yang and Bennett so we support for Opel of those Claire you mentioned that pat the Buddha judge rally you were probing some of the voters. About their thoughts on his path forward given that. The State's got a lot more diverse it's no longer either but it just or Klobuchar strong suit hosts New Hampshire. Either you or did you get satisfactory results or booking at his strategy in Nevada or South Carolina it do you see. Any clearer kinda foundation for something. Well I don't know if you aggregates and satisfying analysis from people who were heavily in the tank for a candidate and a Hun. I do think you know. France Italy a lot of what voters. There are saying his mid McCree of of their. Of the campaign line which is which is sort of variation on eight trump 2016 line which is basically. Winning begets winning. So win and then other people will vote for you because they want to vote. For a winner and make their vote count. Now there's some holes in that logic I think beak is. I do think you know did the British campaign will say Noe knew his name a year ago he still being introduced to new audiences all of which is true. I am particularly minority audiences. But he had a really late start. Going down into places like South Carolina going into Nevada. And I think someone like Sanders and frankly Warren who has a pretty good. Operation down there. I think a lot of you know black women voters might have some sense of camaraderie in her. Want to vote for a woman still. Unity could see more inroads for other candidates who are still in the game rather in the region to a do you think is a bit late in relationship building on there. In part because he focus so much of his effort in putting these first two states so it's it's kind of you know since double edged sword of you got preview can win. But then I winning the earliest it but I also already have that campaign structure in place to carry yet so it's you know. I was I was talking with another reporter and he was kind of saying you know what if I didn't drops out in the next couple weeks then like. Maybe people would need to buy and voters would be all I want another. One of its strategic one another moderate wake guy who could you know possibly win over moderate like as an upper midwest so people I think are really. I think the overall cents. Was kind of yeah its. I mean Naia and Jeff. Does winning began winning is that borne out in isn't the data as idle logical argument. Winning. Relative you activate more technical answer write on. Winning relative to losing begets winning ballot and as is good. Winning is committed. But waiting. Is interpret it relative to expectations that's one reason why that Sanders didn't get that much credit that was especially. Elective credit but likely that aside for now. If you're starts to win states because they your the national front runner and vegetables. And or. It's a good state for you geographically or whatever it and you don't get as much credit. For a win there right. But still you know winning does does to some extent but it winning and if the in the day. The headlines will read Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire the literal headlines right the cable news and house will be so much more complicated. And your analysis will be you know work like but like the heavens to matter to some degree. And it's a good headline for per Sanders but he Alec I mean. Everything. The controversy is it he. Only got 25 when he percent of the vote and almost lost those are big problems actually. Everything else though it. Well for Bernie good he may be the exact order of finish of the rest of the field the 'cause the heaviest routes of burning were always. Elizabeth Warren. Who could win the progress of lane and Joseph Biden to internal. Eight days ago was a national front runner. And now you now only have not had one of the moderates win. You actually had a new moderate in the publish our inner. The arena and actually now there are four moderates who have a sharpened to catch. Bloomberg and our friend Joseph Biden who all have to dip of claim on line I'm being the strongest moderate. Panic all can make some typically about that right Klobuchar considered the most momentum of course the very neat concept we've had since I've been the best so far which is definitely true. Biden can say I'm so stressed national polls and most were coalition also went through advocates say I am the one who has. A ton of money and the fact that evil underperform means that humans will turn to media coordinator around so they can all make a kind of credible claim elect I don't really know affecting it resolved. Before Super Tuesday C a lot of outcomes that. Proceed like this. Who the hell does it happens in Nevada. Maybe Biden comes back in South Carolina maybe not right but you have Bernie Sanders get NN dot Exxon and delegates. Now we upper says any strong delegates. On Super Tuesday one of the moderates emerges as the strongest candidate in that matter is coming from behind with only about sixth and go to still to allocate. With Bernie Sanders having a lead with maybe a majority. Unlikely if not unattainable right. So I mean the kind of Motorola composer models as Winston running the moral compass point is like maybe have a Bernice winters Bernie Sanders plurality. And have a daughter that's is now amino yap. I'm curious. The theory was always that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Were in some way assuring brokers what we saw tonight was that Elizabeth Warren. Dropped off significantly in the polls. And that Bernie Sanders didn't over perform has polls didn't pick up much support and ultimately you know you can't compare. 2016 to 220 but it wasn't performing as well and please as were he did perform quite well sixteen. Why isn't he picking apples but aren't voters was that theory wrong all along. A few necessarily didn't pick in Ian and I know freely in the polls I just. May be made it very liberal Warren supporters of the ones that that stuck with her and and ones who weren't very liberal. They made their second choice the very liberal ones the Sanders. And maybe ones who were very liberal said Mara Hartmann doesn't seem to Dennis and moved. Two Klobuchar. For example and that that may have been what we Saudi especially again will college education and just. That stat just continues to surprise heck it's. Given once strength there and in not to Hong. So I I do you think it's. Partially ideology and city with think Sanders but we've we've seen discussions of class and and education overlaps. Com and howl incentives for example one among non confiscated voters in New Hampshire. Com and so I think you might see a situation where college educated voters. Who are liberal. Looking at other options besides Anderson I think that's what we may have seen in part to night. So knee you. And it hinted. You know what the models say when this is all said and done. And once it's finished updated which I think you'll finish soon and will be posting updates. Can you give us maybe a little gas doesn't seem like I'm under the guess there's a lot including Kenneth dropping out tonight their. Are quite a few contingencies. And public in some ways I don't think. This is the time. When you should be paying attention a model for two reasons number one is that. This might be in other cases where. The spin that voters here. Is different in the model assumptions right remodel assumes that looks little bit a margin of victory but Bernie Sanders it's quite a bit of credit for winning New Hampshire. Which may nappy how how. The more sophisticated. Slash spin forward analysis. Actually works right number two is that you how to speak coordination problem where. Let me drop a hypothetical. Let's say that the culinary union. Time. Of Nevada as of Nevada the cunning in. Endorses Amy Klobuchar. In the Nevada caucuses. Let's say that ten or fifteen prominent democratic lawmakers. Maybe an emissary senators and governors like represented is right. Endorsed Klobuchar some of commerce which is whether candidates right let's say that. She surges from. 4%. To 10% in national polls which begets a further search based on cable news coverage right. And the next week and a half for all about in Klobuchar and then she finish is a strong second to Bernie Sanders. In. In Iowa Caucuses right like any in the Nevada caucuses. It's the model can I. Think about listeners and that specific right that's a speculation can averages outlook a lot of different possibilities like but how this result is interpreted. And whether there's any effort to coordinate around one of the matter it's. It's hard and do it drops how. Are all pretty hard to verdict but it speaking of the dropping out. Part let's talk about Barton. At what point does it become clear clear that. Things are working. There's not a viable path forward when is the earliest. You know I'm still. CO he does in Nevada and South Carolina although analysts say he's he's going much mark all in on South Carolina. And the south in general. I think. Says the order of operations is Nevada then South Carolina he doesn't do well. It's I think nearly so drop out but peace. Because he really has. Put so much at stake in that particular states. As an example of what's to come on Super Tuesday basically or this the big voting swap. Dates in March and and I'm an April. He's package about before and I don't think but I do think his campaign. I mean it was a radical move I think. Though understandable for him to leave for South Carolina. I think as a I'm a human level he's he's probably pretty humiliated right now and I think you could see him kind of expressing frustration on the trail so I think it's a it's a campaign that's doing a lot of agree aggressive soul searching right now but I don't think you'll drop out right away. Via Jeff you're making an argument earlier this evening your hot take where is that by at and could be one index to drop or something. And if I put it quite like that but basically saying was it would not shock me. Eighth. Maybe this coming week and Biden. I hadn't seen in Latin announces he's dropping. Head and I think what. Is Kaman is going to you is there going to look at the numbers and and let's say he's. You know which. Is possible in given given the start here. And maybe is fund raising is drying out. And maybe he certainly get calls from Democrats are saying JO if you stay in this race you're gonna make it more likely the Bernie Sanders is going to be the nominee. And eight that your democratic capital. EU. That he might counts it was my laster you know or something but my last ride. But I base I just wanted to ordered out there people. It would be surprising that you maybe shouldn't be shocked if that happens because at the same time for Joseph Biden if this is it. He's already been humiliated. If it looks like he's gonna get even more humiliated that might be enough for him to say. You know what I'm gonna get out and endorse is Klobuchar something which then you know as a span on the race and I change thanks. Did you. Name drop the final word on botany next groups. Statistically people dropped out when they're dropping right they drop but when they're falling in the polls and Biden's past I'd analysis. Any song in the polls at the same time like. I don't know he actually is still second national polls first in some polls. You have two states are eating figured he very good for immunize underperform relative to that right. I mean I don't know why you think you wanna see it through until South Carolina I would think that the thing that might preempt. Something is like you know maybe just not feeling it right maybe he has pour polls in South Carolina to keep I think if if he were convinced that he could. Having 5050 shot or even a respectable side of winning South Carolina. And I don't think he'd quit I thinking if Nevada can expectations can really get you lower you know I mean. And it might even be known as were left is going on. They have to edit sorry guys notice what the hell's going on in Nevada and because nobody ever knows what's going on and about a caucus until it's good for Bernie but the culinary union today just so these flyers said. Bernie is gonna take away your health care in not quite so many words right that's interest thing you know they're a little while tired. Area no I mean like. Chaos in Nevada I mean who asked a modest and states. Asking about it. What if what happens in Nevada stays in Nevada. And then South Carolina I mean right now actually nobody right now right the model thinks that right now. At moments ago back the Matos confused because it's pricing in further declines from Biden in a cascading wave. From New Hampshire which makes. Nevada worse in the Nevada affects South Carolina and then all of a sudden you could have Bernie Sanders putting. South Carolina which isn't what you would necessarily expect based on each yet. Cuba to beat. Or get. Actually let me wrap on this question which is a little backwards quality but we got a lot of questions about it after the Iowa Caucuses and I never talks too much about it. Says you just and then or wrapped for the evening. Turn out how is turnout in two point 18 compared to house primaries in New Hampshire and is there anything we can and dues from. Let's that you seem because at this are the night when I was looking at places that had composed reported. Com turnout is behind. 2008 and this slight bit ahead twenty sixteenths or just in the democratic primaries and in 2008 as the record. I was too shy to 9000 and obviously knows the extremely competitive primary Brock about Hillary Clinton also John Edwards and composed on. Let the race at that point. By. As things stand it looks like it might be around the same. Or even hire me and you know as an idea. Now I think one important thing here is that in 2008 the Republicans also had a competitive primary. Such thinking about were unaffiliated voters were going. They were probably split. It and they split but to some extent the Rolando unaffiliated voters show up in both primaries while. With an uncompetitive Republican primary this time. You're gonna figure that if unaffiliated voters vote in the primary most of them. Democratic and you get actually seen Shalala in exit numbers for the Republican primary which a violent present one very easily. I think you 86% the last I checked solid 10% for awhile yes exactly time town which saw him and lobby yesterday. But the numbers in terms like ideology. Among Republicans. Like the most conservative primary electorate that gators that like this a picture and I think that suggestive. Is there an affiliated to lean Republican. They would invest in the road and permanent stay at home or even voted Democrat. And that also showed up though in the democratic primary exit polls right because you saw moderates and somewhat. Liberal. To even more conservative democratic voters. Have higher numbers aren't. Yet there it was actually a slightly more moderate electorate primary electorate pretty exit polls and in 2016. Tom and I think that's there were some. Unaffiliated to. Might have voted in the Republican primary last Sunday are for John K sick or something and this time their vote in the democratic primary and maybe that health Klobuchar. For example. No it was awesome dad takes on cable TV about who'll of the electorate is getting more moderate threaten world there's actually different voters so important to keep in mind. Anyway I am sure of that will be podcasting and before too long it's also nearing 1 I am so thank you name. Thank you gallon. That you color. And think the my name is Gail injury time each hour and rush out and having writer are on audio and video of this evening which reminds me you can watch that on YouTube if you liked. We're sitting over in some. Empty corner. People all of news. Organizations are wrapping up packing things and that's not. It. You can get a judgment unite a podcast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the bureau leaders are raiding or reviewed in Apple Store. Or tells them and about us. Things are listening annals.
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