FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The biggest political moments of 2019

The podcast crew looks back at the biggest political moments of last year and looks ahead to the most pressing questions of 2020.
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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The biggest political moments of 2019
Hello and welcome to this New Year's edition of the politics podcast I'm gale entering. Everything is going according to plan. We're listening to this during the final days of 2019. And none of us are anywhere near defy authority office or studio. In this new environment knows so yes we are pre recording masks and for the record it's about a week into December. Suck today were gonna spend half the show looking back at 2019. And taking stock of the most important political moments of the year. In the second half we're gonna look ahead to 20/20 and discuss our most pressing questions for the election year hat. And here it needed to that arc. Editor in chief it's how the current it's going well Galen and everything is going according to plan where are you. Witnesses according. You already started Monday this Iron Man in. Sit still Spain will be courted about Spain. Eating some topless probably have been some good wine can be. Just. For Italy and its own set I don't think Europeans is being Gary like. Healthy now lot of greens. Now lot of greens I actually Cray agree it's gonna come back from here. I mean I'm sure that. What are really the first world problem. I'm enjoying my new pallets on that I got offered. A not juicy and just the right time. And senior politics writer Clara Malone house account and where yet and here in North America. Analysts monies. EU being. Public preparing for a good news celebration. Also here at us is managing editor Mike Allen RU and where are. I'd rather. Right now. I'm Denver well that's a I'm not going to be anywhere exciting metallic sounds union east and I will be on the east some are unease. Our. Let's begin by bringing ourselves back to this time last year. Collect what some. Kind of in key expectations that we for how politics would play out in 2019. It didn't necessarily go expect those kind of take it back for. So I was singing and at this. The first week of December. And I did not yet spat. And I was in him out. Reflecting on minor. And then what I was doing last December. Woz is reporting at peace abouts. The sword as. Upstart progressives left activists in the Democrat party because we just come off the mid term and the last six months had sort of been defined by a like it DOC rising star and you know there was a lot of coverage in. At the end of Tony eighteen in the first months of of 2019 of we now know as the squad and so I was kind of interested in. Overton window opening ideas that were percolating you know the idea that there you know core pack in all that stuff and that's the sort of through this before any of anyone had run for president. What house in time line I think John that waning and through the race plan. Andrew Yang. Act a felony and hacks Elaine. There was there was a ton of talk about how much. Guarantees progressive litmus tests for that primary. And so. I think that has prove in half true. For 2019. There were a lot of progressive tax a lot of the primary it was around. The litmus tests of health care. But now at the end of Tony nineteen. You know I'm looking at. The top four candidates basically. It's to moderates to progressives. And used and and the people who are. Getting into the race thing successful but Deval Patrick and Michael Bloomberg. Seats spaces moderately things and I think that's just I think the conversation at the end of this year. Is not necessarily around. That the party is getting super laugh it's about. The party. Micah and the I'm curious if that was kind of a date theme for 2019 in your viewers while their expectations during and is that. It would be kind of full of activists in the party driving the party last. And weathered this kind of course correction seemingly towards the end of the year was a surprise I. Actually it's very hard to like kind of place yourself in mentality. That you were a year ago I mean certainly the next story when he team politically. Was Kavanagh confirmation and then amid terms. And Democrats coming out in the mid terms feeling. Pretty good. You know. Although I think like yet likely agree like. Maybe the big political story in a primary which is probably a part we must accident despite 38. Is this shift. Toward the left kind of in the first half of the year and then a shift acted. The center more recently that seemed like the big story there. You know I mean in terms of things I like. Went wrong and if we are sitting here a year ago. We would have correctly identified some of the big democratic. Candidates in the race that we probably would have him attire on that O. They deserve respect and Pamela Harris so you know already have a couple of of casualties of high expectations. Yeah I agree with all that I think some of the things. I and we did not and that the anticipated. Look very early on actually we were saying. Don't forget there's a big chunk of the Democratic Party that that is not super brawl. I've been surprised by how. Sort of like a Kellogg. Two to perhaps it's been it seemed like all that energy was on the left. For Mike the first half of this primary the first half between nineteen and all of a sudden there was like the moderates bite back and and it seemed like there was a reaction. The other thing I've been surprised by. Which maybe we shouldn't and a ban is just how much electability. Has dominated the conversation I think I think we knew it would. Be a big subject of conversation but just how much voters care about it I'd and that's day and then the big one I think it's. Impeachment. For obvious reasons I don't think we saw impeachment does. That's all about likely until of the Ukraine. In terms of this shift in Democrats mentality or which citing energy is on was there a clear. Turning point I'm trying to think back over the year may be the first debate sticks out to me as something. Where and how far left the party had shifted became really clear and people in the party started. Speaking operated. More moderate voices in the. He started speaking up was very clear shift. Took longer let I I actually think the did you edge is an interest in. Figured all this because. He is to his strategic advantage. Not a person who was well known and that's well defined by ideology. And China entered the race and the national consciousness is sort of like. People people are talking about his sexual orientation. He there was like he kind of was. It gave vague plans or eight that sort of seemed to fall under more opulent progressive. Medicare for all staff there was a lot of actually like. Fine tuning the policy stuff and then there is a moment which I'm not which I was only a few months ago. Where he was kind of like his his campaign was kind of like who. In the middle right and I think terrorist kind of tried to split the baby a little bit and it didn't work where where she come a tried to say. That progressive that you know she was she we talked of the issues the compromise can and I concluded found a nice way into that moderate space. Yeah I I I think we digits captures it I think it was really warrants a rise. That aunt that. Flip that switch now look that's which is like the summer ice yet exactly I I think it's partly. A media creation and it's partly like what's the narrative Annan had a hand there's they're. Something real did happen and where you had pretty judge. Look it make that candidate and where water and what's climbing climbing climbing. Office and homicide wait a second machine to look abroad and that man she's been struggling more recently in the polls. Yeah I think one difficult thing about. And about between nineteen is like the key stories. And the key memorable days or moments like don't actually correlated that well right so can I. I help remembering the stroke talking about. Kind of key moments in my have a particular criteria for it which is like. The times and you feel like oh my gosh things are shifting and moving in real time you do in real time where you feel like you know I was in. You know I was in an earthquake in training acumen as a must things in the summer you know like literally years assuming seismic and eloquent kind of feel the ground shaking. And their two moments. Like that that is organized graduate who unit is seen crews at the roasters talker that at the Rio all suites hotel and casino. We've got a lot of what is still around as you also create green. They trust a lot of greens yet to be honest. To be honest I mean I never thought I'd like dreams that much like you go to Africa and Europe are vague it's like to sell anywhere okay ahead. Fattening change and anyway so where is that perfect like activity I thought. We'll talk about trump more later the day when like trump released the transcript of the Ukraine call transcript is really bad. Like that was pretty seismic and I think we can talk about whether that. Was an over reaction not real time clearly presents trying to impeach writes it's not like a minor thing it exactly Budinger and you get removed from office look at that later maybe not. The homeless efforts to date we are kind of all the candidates were addicts on different nights right on the first second of all the candidates. Raising their hand suffered at the exceptions were about we would we ban private insurance and health care right it was like sing you're gonna left and then come on Harris attacking Joseph Biden. Attacking feels like it's a loaded term to don't mean epic going after Joseph Biden and when I was very effective. And she rose in the polls kind of looked like okay. Things are kind of fine for now being shaken up but in fact she lost that balance after few weeks in a lot of problems. We discussed a douse him in this podcast about coming harris' campaign. On in retrospect though look it's a that was the most important moment I think animal was that when that you. I'm Claire and Mike they were identifying a moment ago which is. This moment where Warren rises Aniston and deemed to be the national front runner or co front runner. And then how quickly the backlash happens right how much these rich donors are like well. We don't know about her mean we need. Michael Bloomberg are Deval Patrick gore or someone in the race right. How much and Lucic is able to say okay actually well now she's a front runner and I can kind of kind of run to her right. How much health were trapped firming I think it's like I also don't think. The big moments were exactly surprising. Like I remember having a day when I was like. Just coming conversation with some friends about Warren cents on health care and I'm like a counter commit myself like. This is really a big problem between about this is going to be a problem for warrant sooner or later health care doesn't make any sense kind of what she's doing right so it's like it's not like things were that. Unpredictable but it does feel like inflection points we're it would not have been crazy to imagine a world in which Warren rises and some combination the following happens. Either some Sanders people come and say okay well I like Bernie better but Warren clearly can win and with our support. Shall definitely win and so AOC endorses. Elizabeth Warren and that says in a different directory or. People in the establishment saying you know what. Clearly this is what the people why chisel a bit more progress than we might like. But hey she's not Bernie and she can be collegial can work richter and so. And so you know and so let's elevate her instead of tearing her down not to be fair usually happens when he gets be perceived as a front runner is that you get torn down. And we kind of only have like. A few moments in history where a woman was perceived as a front runner in the presidential primary and they're also she had a with. That woman having a tough time right I mean Hillary Clinton the kind of perpetual level for runner. India it 2008 Hillary Clinton again and sweet sixteen where she did win by some margin but like clearly was not having an easy go of it. Warren. At that moment. This fall in the maybe Harris kind of also that moment this summer as a kind of four for four. As like when a woman becomes the front runner Michelle Bachmann now Michelle Bachmann should not quite have her moment. In this site exhausted there she let's actually appallingly apparent Juan Puerto. I think anyway but he did not but likely not happens. Coincidence or not right then I was like there's an especially strong so let's. Refocus on some of the key moments in. 2019 you said you're too kind of that first debate. And then also the Ukraine scandal emerging although some of the ships in the democratic primary did not actually coincide with there's kind of seemingly ground shifting moments Clark while horse are your kind of key. Moments and 2019 that just stick out whether or not they were surprised. You know this summer the summer and two point that need is talking about is certainly shifting but we hear that. I think the things like looking back. Biden deciding to run seems. I mean. It's kind of been Nall and on one level it is. OK of course she was and around but it is now is inevitable. And so the fact that he has remained. A flawed but steady foreigner coat and say it. Is interesting and I I think his decision actually run at looking. Also in some regard instigated the Ukraine scared Rakers if he doesn't run then and totally know you can see. Exactly. And then I would say. You know. The other two things that stick in my mind the Mahler report. Because it. To rove so much a trumps. Psychology. And thus. The actions he'd talk. And V because it. Each of the party politics within the Democratic Caucus right. You know that friction between the moderates and the progresses it's and that kind of help the fine that. And then of course I think you know the political event of the is the Ukraine. You know it's Ukraine's impeachment. Practice and it's funny that we have in a single year to tracks of impeachment I mean let's play. This clip pick and a in my mind. And he beat that work ethic I really do you separate out the impeachment stuff vs the campaign. Because I think they're different beasts. And they have different angles and actually the impeachment does necessarily like serve. The past elect elect twirled. Masters stood for Democrats. But I still think it's obviously a huge moment in the country so those are my three it's a crazy fall I mean. The shift from like issued to that I gimmick of the election. Cloths Ukraine stopped this just. A lot. Mike let's get Q what were the defining moments. When in nineteen politically. The guy's name them and month author a couple. Lower level ones out in terms of the primary. 1 am to steal this from made. I think that a it's the endorsement of Bernie Sanders looking back with a big moment I don't think guy at the time appreciated how old. Big deal either technically am practically in literally was or just symbolically. Adam. But it feels like Nate was doing at this but that was an inflection point and and Desantis campaign whine campaign and they're for items chances all look very different. Am and pre judge if that and and then. Come even further back the digits town hall. Them was and when in nineteen. I think. We're preparing for a ness episode today were having trouble figuring out what happened in 2019 I without a metropolis like him with symphony implement. But dot com originally put you to judge on the map. And I think I think telegraph. That there was some appetite for his Tennessee among voters. And certainly an appetite for a tendency among. The media. The other one that I'll just ten threat there is the North Korea. Maneuvering summit. That happens if you're a member. I don't think that really fits in with any broader narrative but it just but the big moment a you have one marked the shut down persisted. Lehman is not only mine experts other crap defend yourself. And move trump dysentery intense approval rating. I mean it was when I let it moved back. Insert request that it may not care. It was standing out there and act. That. Moment you're just his early months. Ring area right it does Zach and I want all moment because you got one bad and it's our. Turn to have hindsight bias here I guess that's the point of this the whole show is absolutely got a lot literally a look back. With hindsight bias everyone is enjoying elect holiday eggnog already even novices at the beginning of December that were tedious. And on the topic of trump and in drunk this month that workers. On the dominant truck like that you mention kind of trump. Going 20 being the first US president to go to North Korea crossing the DMZ line when he met with can John noon. How did trumps year compare with what our expectations. Might have banned and I don't want to be like a broken record asking this question. Traditionally when a president's party has reportedly at the mid terms there's some kind of course correction added there is pressure from. That presidents you know party people in congress to me be moderate a little Edward just try different policies. Did we actually expect that happen going into this year and was there any. Remembered date. Talking a lot expected. A pivot to the senator but. And him there. I think okay here's a hot day I think trumps twining nineteen played out. Almost exactly as we expected the plan pan am Ukraine scandal included. The park particulars. We did not and could not anticipate. But the level of chaos the self harm done politically. Craziness of the doll I think we all anticipated enemy army on a scale of like. Has the biggest or look so it could happen between ninety and I think between nineteen was like. On the scale of predictable predictable on the predictable side. Yeah he's agreeing I'm in Cuba but Nate it was predictably crazy it was sort of thing but agreeing to. Claire Bennet. In ten years. In politics will be back to normal will be not so doll. The by tankers and no role as those podcasts and market with cents while. There were limited. And do not. I'll like all hunched over with canes. And hang years. How the media works shouldn't ten years our games. They are unemployable I think we should. I think it I think it complaint. There will be as politics bore now. I think should we rate the biggest moments from the rank them in order. Can I add one more to minutes before into. On an as as I guess I don't like personal interest biased or personal coverage bias is. That gerrymandering made its way to the Supreme Court and actually the courts in general I think. We when we looked back of the year can focus on political moments that don't necessarily have any bearing long term. On the course of the country like the shut down for example where is. Supreme Court decisions do you write they create new precedence and they either open doors to future litigation are closed doors to future litigation and gerrymandering reaching the Supreme Court and the court deciding that it's not in the realm up for its not up to the court to decide as an issue. I think was was interesting and we'll see the repercussions of that and twentieth when he trying to throw on. I guess I want to. Tell people listening at home. Earnings commute or fewer and casino eight drilling hole we're podcast or else staying for that doesn't involve salad. I'll irreverence is not are assessed and the like which moments a man the most going forward because the jury manner decision and the court. In general is a lot more important than a lot of things here on him Mirant biggest political mama to 2090 and this is heavily weighted towards. Am includes. Number one Ukraine. Number two somehow are. Numbered grid. Number three release of the Mueller report released its number four North Korea summit. Five biting and third grades six its endorsement Sanders. Seven blues Dutch town hall. Eight that Supreme Court Galen mansion. Nine some green new deal Kate take take North Korea. Because. Even though we live we could all still died in any. Nuclear holocaust. I think that it won't be this year. That's the North Korea for the ants. In and you have got it from eclectic and if we have dive out of your rhetoric and I think there. Fear that the ailing you made a face that it would add or mutant that should be lower. A UC endorsement seems to signify. Sanders ranked overall and it think Sanders strength overall. Is just more import right like. The 15% that was going to be formed behind and should that he didn't switch to it that the above or below but now. Blow while. I'm I'm gonna take a modem and the commitment is rankings now. I'm also cut OK here's verdicts. Politics pure politics. It's Ukraine and health care I think those first you are right. I think it should be three Biden entering the race for release of the Muller report. Five booty JH town hall. Six Supreme Court stuff. And then I'm knocking the rest off the list entirely agreeing a deal. A OC endorsements and clarity and North Korea to my further point now this year. So you just five. Just just yes there weirdly it's like when that it now I've yeah but we need to boo. Yeah. I think I think health care includes. Paul actually it's Warren. Warren and number eyes and the primary number two at the White House that makes cubic opens. Number three the judicial branch judicial branch. Perform war. And. The ball. Up. That was that an implicit criticism of this let us listen criticism. If I mean honestly like Hong Kong is still ongoing is a fascinating. Moment if you will and the war in Yemen. I don't appreciate. Let's talk about terrorists acts now. So I think. What that he greater. It's I think it is Eric Elie popular with here's that the ball on it is the initial 538 Lance. Nate silver's 538. Biggest political moments when he is. Ukraine. And I lists Biden and during a raid out my latest release of the Mueller airport projects now. Dot the booted its town hall is like a realty. The field it really speaks from like we're gonna have refill the release of the mullah report religions are seen and CNN that it. May be similar report. Is in the category likeness on none of them like. But they're certainly what are some political climaxes that people might have been expecting that in the current. Flows over rated political character team. ID vault would be comedy hot take Robert. Who went about it. Expect it to parents and I see about a piano. I think you were more skeptical the leader in light sleeper but like I don't symbolized like this could do us a hell aren't yet Clara voters skeptical. Sceptical about a before it was cool. Is actually an award. This is a 530 and I could now come on and the now an adult audience that it gets punted well Nancy Pelosi overrated underrated pocket properly. Under. That's remembrances of those that is an accurate. Even counting. I if. Look. At your. The PC ME ST not you like you know she let everyone come Alec. Take take shots Saturday that during the primary whatever he needs to do you know that the mid term for and we need to do to win. And then man 2019 has really been like. A year between nineteen peach has stopped but also like polo White House interactions with trump have been some mountain yeah like that's really interesting to me. Those have been oh wait we didn't mention actually then 2019 started with a record number of women being sworn into. House. It's kind of timing is significant moment of 2019 and like in some ways I saw the stat that the number of women in the house quadrupled between an anti points he first entered and now. I think we should point that it is still. In and credit least hunger so I'm I'm kind of. I think that's that that statistic is both. An interesting one and sort of shaming one Britney because it like it was the year of the woman but and more like. Multiples more women were elected but it still. How about that how to I don't pick Republican caucus right which we which we've written yeah. Which Rupert it's easy quadrupled in number but the year of the woman. Ending in this. Primary field where as of December 6. Three of the four leading candidates are like white man. Three of the four older seventy. All four are white. I mean it seems like significant. Maybe it hasn't electability may be Harrisonburg got a lucky maybe both amulets in this Booker. Or Castro or Deval Patrick. Has surged to deal isn't we have like post Christina post holidays. I've talked with my family and to meet one person who dropped one more person who drops out before the caucuses. Area a couple come how many what he singer jittery public that mr. app and a or how many not do Ehrlich how many drop outs you think people should. Expect coming. Many action. I mean I guess some other people remaining don't have a big enough campaign structure running it that they would need to drop out just because of cash. With Klobuchar drop out before now now. Now the industry analysts and Andrew Yang you know Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. Sure yeah I think he's he's ready to drop out of Fallujah it. Casters. Of the call after I mean Patrick could operate that aspect now are in saw the Bloomberg. If Bloomberg is at. Still up 4%. In two weeks. I wouldn't express your listing this in Michael Bloomberg has dropped out and I am right now starkly treating some reading something about like. People once again over the importance of paid advertising in politics. Sipping my. Rioja well and with that let's move on to our bucket had its U 2019 sorry. Twelve plenty to. Be. Written a death when it is finally year. Now look ahead to 20/20 and we're gonna do this and I'm gonna lay out some of the biggest unknowns of the year had. And that an interest in hearing from all of you kind of how old how unknown is exactly our do we have a good sense of how it will play out and whether or not don't matter in determining who goes on to win the 20/20 election. So what's that got us out of whack kind of and an answer but let's begin an impeachment. How big a on unknown is backed how much its effort. It's not that they given now. It's it's in. It's in none known it's and should be few people out the Rumsfeld. And the Rumsfeld Ian. It's a nun now on it's unknown man he'll be impeached. And not remain in government and won't matter that much. Question mark. Bush. Asks the much. Williams that I like it depends on it do. We got it plays out acted like wind people think a difference at the margins it could win people over to (%expletive) people off. I'm in our polling finds are few voters who think terms Condit is impeachable the nation be impeached and I don't know what those voters to I don't know those voters say you know way. It'd be impeached as good amount officers wells Ortiz say you know snack raid the Democrat 24 are so their forward. In wall or there's a third bucket which is there like. We should impeach because we combine a matter office but by the time election comes around impeachment as a distant memory and a at all. Apart on our next up who will the democratic nominee be how much of an unknown as. Well look I think getting Eric guarantee you a few people. Biden Bernie Sanders of of the weren't keeping attention Amy Klobuchar Michael Bloomberg camp taught at youngster it's if your college it's a known and I think pisses. One of the it's on the unsettled side as far as primaries so. If you kind of class I primaries and to two big buckets right kind of follow the leader races. Like Hillary in oh waiter sixteen verse is unsettled races this is on the unsettled side of the spectrum although Biden has axed a maintained. Kind of be Mitt Romney. 012 type of lead. It unsettled in the sense that there's still. Many cannon it still have a real chance of winning not in the sense that there's an autonomous. Right I mean that there hasn't summit on a time there's. Or like there's basic four candidates use public I think. I'll speak promise and instruments it like we wouldn't be surprised many of those four won the primary. But I I personally cannot say which one acting as the best I think minds of questions. The pilot those kids being. Biden the digit Warren and Sanders. But I I think that I do you think I'd at the best chance tonight I would not be surprised by and yet. Or or. Wearing a clover or from the Orioles dvd era field and Aaron almost gonna say okay. This is dangerously in the realm of probability is right. Take the top floor dangerous. Give them one unit of chance each. Give the field. One unit and then give Biden a second unit. Like that's probably not a you can do the math at home right but this time our model may or may not have been published there will be questions via hopefully. As. Yeah yeah. I don't like anyway you know. The remodel opinion that tenement my. Rough yours so here's the question how much that the matter. Who the nominee is quite that I think. Because. I think democratic strategists are definitely. Looking act the polling in. The swing states right. And they're saying listen some of these some of these nominees played very differently than others and this is stuff that that people have been saying for awhile right which is like if you want to win. Those traditional blue wall states go from moderate. And a feud in if you nominate eighty. A series or a war and I think you have to get a little more. Could not creative you have to eat it would have to be nerve for the Democrats to win it would have to be elections is not out around the possible at all. But you just have to like it. Assume it's gonna be year were new map it's forged somewhat. When we talk about how much the nominee matters. Why is the rains were talking about is it like. 1% to 3% or 3% to 5% in terms how much of the nominee can change the result invoke terror when in reality. In week. I actually went it's easier to program but it probably it we don't know this is a very hard question and answer right. I think people. Let me answer it acting people over rate comfortably that. Am I think look and our polling we did with excess. Adam. You had so here of the ranges that. People gave each candidate. The chances of heating up right. It ranged from an average. 27%. For for Tom's dire. 268%. For Joseph Biden right on apt. That's a really by Rangers sent to talk about some momentum and not one nominees days clear underdog one nominee is day. Clear favorite I think the rangers' power than them and every time again anymore specific than. Last I mean let's. And forging ever really have. The pure test to have one kind of race at a time we know if you look at races for congress then. The in the nominate me quite I'm a lot of difference however like. The selection process for congress or senate which is a perhaps congress. In theory should filter out some of the more disastrous nominees but sometimes an alleged. Child molester when an Alabama anyway but not very often you have some like that happen so like select whoever. Democratic nominee is is someone who will have survived. The process a process that contains a lot of checks and balances including importantly. The ability for the party to have the super delegates decide after all within the delegates if it goes to be contested convention right. So the world when you're listening this. In December 20 Twitty. Analyst of Warren McCann the nominees she must've been something relatively well. Once the new year started to become the nominee right if you just randomly pick someone without a vetting process. And you might have nominees who are. Big disasters but I mean. Donald Trump won the Republican nomination. And on sixteen. Many people predicted. That he would sort of so far off. And standard for nominees. That it at this big effect on the general election. And had an effect I think. I mean I I action I think it's a persuasive because there's not really anyway. To prove me Hillary Clinton if you kind of look at her. Their ability ratings might have lost to generic Republican by six points or something right mr. let exactly. Okay back but that's when I wouldn't call that you know that's a case Eagles jets singled to tell the average democratic voter that whatever else. Candidate alienating its trump can't if you get four points last and a Democrat would. Panic I think. Obama cited acts are probably going to be talking about does is acts conversation planning you know at the start of twenty torn as we can say some of this but let's kind of run. Through May do little more quickly the other questions that will be decided in twenty torn and you mentioned this when they are ready but what are the chances of contested. Convention. It. Okay. Our models so our model says. It. Goes there McConnell speaking. So frequent. But let into. I do get weaker with the fifth argument. Noble like I get we're reflect variable names right I think it really hungry. So I an act arbitrarily pick a name for variables like named after type of Rodman. Spicy item. I just I need a memorable bit variable name was hungry don't cope when your Hungary. Anyway so can you card. I he's guilty that like an early anymore. And all yet so. The way to model exodus what's the chance you'll not have a majority. Of delegates chosen. Based line. States voting the primaries and caucuses right. Dom Danone winsome target you know with the majority and liked at numbers publishing and you look up way it is we evidently a lot of time and bought into that number. Evidently evidently. But that's not the same thing as it gets the convention. If Joseph Biden wins 47 point 5%. Of the delegates. And you know. And Bernie is next with fourteen but it's just thirteen in Castro has twelve right. Joseph Biden is gonna become the democratic nominee in a probably happened well before that you mention it made me kind of deemed inevitable by the media at some point right out of the question. I have no idea. It's most articulate answer answer when I'm like actually working and are more rigorously provide this answer which is a hard prop missile and. And just today kind of wrap up today conversation about a contested convention. Kinda more broadly. Does having a fraught. Primary process that I guess a contest agreement it would imply make it harder for not party to win. Well I guess trump is is. Evidence that competence of the commentary IA. No I'm and I. I thought that that the health care debate that that Democrats have have felt that they needed to have in this primary. In order to differentiates. Themselves from each other. Isn't necessarily the greatest thing for them in the Jenner right which icing keynote let's say Warren realized. And adjusted somewhat. I think that has to do I think keynote champ came out of a really can tested. Primary. And nasty one bombing that convention while not contested was not. Super harmonious shall we sent. When you were like in the room you know there are people who are happy nominee. Maybe that Democrats. Arnold are more likely to because of like structural. Differences because of the Electoral College because of meat beat Republican advantages. Is ours vote efficiency goes meat be Democrats are more likely to. Face challenges in general election after having a nasty primary and are now I mean it's kind of I think that's an educated theory but it's not want to band like. In the middle reading between afterward peace matters things. My. Hall. States that. Divisive primary or hard fought primary I am results. Dan lessening that nominee's chances of winning the nomination. I'm sorry the general election. That's sad you know. There were her. Like when you have a candidate who has really loyal supporters like Sanders and 26 team there were some analyses that found. You know. There were there are meaningful amount of Sanders supporters who. Did not vote for Hillary Clinton but for third party and vote you vote for trump lamb. Since so it's on the watch but but. Look like you can actually went into our election after don't like a taste slog it now in primaries see Barack Obama race. So moving on from that convention I think business lending again we're gonna talk about a lot in 20/20 but just to give people a benchmark. The how will the economy fare. At this point how one known is that how much. If I knew you think your being here right now. Well play well. I mean we do you have like. The most current data and it's now trying to forecasting years in advance by you know what's that name what's what are the town economy could beat a Portland. It to be anywhere from pretty to really terrible like it was the balance yet so unknown town and there are no I don't know I don't know down. We know well no it's an unknown unknown because as things that we don't know we don't know me at this point no we don't know no. Clean air no you don't know that's you don't. I'm you don't know out like using the economy will exists next year yes known Leon net and only. Would he have written articles about how it's very hard to predict with any exact how the economy's doing a year from now do you remember something called. The financial crisis. And it is as where this awful thing. In December 207. The Federal Reserve assigned only 89%. Chance. Of a recession. Turned out yet a second worst recession. Of all time so like a cozy something. But. That. You know. That edge and just like mock trial for that island yes. The team is it really did and on arguing the Sinai interest rates yes and and I graduated from Iceland. Two five is pre crash. Year crashed Archie was super good missed prom to be in it and stop. And and it's a crash story sorry I would love to but I've got fed challenge that we. Actually Andy and then right. The people recently Catholic. Those kids like and college days and super at that. And the scratched at the and I. They are at they're going to prom it hit a problem illiterates social cues more accurately. It's just look at what if I can only wonder what your production podcasts on this it's a good guy at our last our last question in twentieth running. It is. Which he wanted to be political scandals most surprising headline or who ran the better campaign scan close look at. Will there be any big political scandals or October surprises in. I had yak what's the answer this is unknown. But like in our world basically and an unknown yes eland there will be partners. What's the most boring possible twentieth when scandal. Is that it like by. And winning. Solid be the October surprise would be some high right. On it clear. To me now your right like ice that is our. Think about it it's your old oak candidate yeah yeah all around. The three students in. Each minister. I mean not a movie or I mean we shouldn't put in the podcasts habits you can check out from the weight what happens. What happened east takes over rightward as a party victory nominee that's what that's like much. Is if if the person dies is the nom if one of them parties' nominees dies in October. I think what would happen is that you would vote for that person. In absentia India. To present the democratic parties is about Olympic ballot would've closed for Namibia madness if humans. Election experts. And right and tell us. Act Clem and also you know script readers who are interest in purchasing that act and I'm ready cumulative. Ella that it would not be. I'm. If it's whisper it Westboro watch yours do you think you'll be another trump scandal and went on yeah sorry here's here's why don't. Let's say financial sex or child question operation magnitude scandal. We mean a specific pioneer Frederick cannon that that whole policy asking. I mean it was scandalous. Agri. But it was not as an actor. Scandal classically defined I just mean a scandal that reaches the level of sort of media coverage awareness asked shouts IC net I think that seems very likely. From a practical perspective. The Democratic Party. Has known who the Republican nominee in 20/20 would be or like. For years and has been doing Oppo research for four years maybe they got the NBC tapes maybe they've dug up all they have been. I am sure I don't know this for a fact I don't like don't have any source is honest I imagined that the Democratic Party has been stockpiling der on the president. For three years so far and opportunity for Cerro three point 18. And we will see the efforts of I think it's more likely actually mean that's true biting it's more likely that a big political scandal will come from something new that. What does are going to be. I think categories are financial. Sexual. And question mark because what we see it will we see Trump's tax returns to be right death. It's decent it's. Alright and would not there are other unknowns at 20/20 have to stick with us throughout the coming years to find out what they are and how much matter and the going to be a stick with us and tell your friends and tell your friends we resolve to do better and yet there was that in trying to integrate if you know anyone who is and challenged. Or is currently in that talent it will definitely like this should so. Clara are now all eyes are on eggnog when we're recording you know it's serious sometimes targeting that that challenge is not the most effective audience there aren't there aren't there already listening to or receiving. There also like how many. I. What groups and school Davila target the job calls them. How to musical theater. Mr. one. On the slackers the slackers cheerleaders the skaters Steiner's sexually active and people who eat lunch and bathrooms dolls. What is that you haven't seen mean girls. Does. And there's nobody. Wit wit new listeners. The Whitney are hostile to apologies rather have that. Didn't used to be around when we markets has yet seen am the remake of it's not see it's. It's the cool kids in the modern high school like it's. It's climate change our eco conscious superfast do not as being studious people that they go back high school and they act as if it was like you know of the nineties and eighties went -- are now like. Your markets cool. It's such a it's organized so art challenge for everyone listening to this podcast. You're still on vacation and presumably maybe over the coming week. We want to see a diagram of the current clicks in American high school. Jens is still Jones in as wise coastal zones or estan double and now. A raised eyebrows and cross the diagram a diagram of the cliques in high school are we're gonna leave a bad guys. Thank you me. Thank you Dylan they declare its estimates that. They do Mike. Happy new year to you all it was a wonderful snaps when he ninety happy new year thank you for sticking with us between nineteen state went mustard 120 and again. Tell your high school friends of class. I'd less there are any emergency circumstances this is our only podcast planned for this week. We will be back what you lies next Monday and then it's off to the races of the democratic primary race. And unless there's been some wild turn of events since the beginning of December a trial president trump in the senate. My name is dale hunter turn each out is in the control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at five to be dot com you can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave as the ratings are reviewed in apple podcast or. Org and Andorra and if you can handle or. Thanks for listening and it's. And.

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