Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?
Hello and welcome to defy equity politics pod cast. I'm Gayle Andrea we've got another big day of primaries this Tuesday. That will test just how competitive the race between Bernie Sanders and Joseph Biden Steele is. The states weighing in our Michigan Washington Missouri Mississippi Idaho and north. Dakota. Were also got a look at why Americans of different political stripes are viewing the threat of the new corona virus differently. And we'll discuss what the repercussions of the outbreak could be for the primary and even the general. And here it mean to do all that our editor in chief and it's over housed on the general it. Now owns. Salary data is punchy. All singer that's easier Brothers critic ramble and Perrier. In it and managing director. Mary good. They equipment shipments. We connect symphony and the like acts that are happening today and sleep and and then having crippling anxiety about. Run of buyers you are really unpleasant about this time I was into corona virus before it was cool. I was Harris about it for like no light no pleasure in Iran not the type. I'm not the type was he's acting erratic about that stuff but you are now anxious. Easily know which is why corona virus you know. Yeah I've been reading about a kind of all we can I wouldn't. You know I've just got to might it off as usual at the script from the spot after it is definitely altered my night I'm much enhanced Maher I'd subway. What we're gonna get into exactly that right now so let's begin with when our favorite questions to good use of polling bad use of polling Reuters article based on a -- they conducted. Last week reads quote Americans who now find themselves politically divided over steaming meat everything are forming two very different views of another major issue. The dangers of the new co wrote a virus Democrats are about twice as likely Republicans to say the corona virus poses an imminent threat to the United States. And corp. And they go on to detail how Democrats and Republicans are prepared for like who's washing their hands our get ups are on. The houses and as article mostly emphasizes the difference Ian media consumption between the two partisan camps sorrow. Is Mike is that a good use of polling or a bad use. I think it's like half the good news the bad news am I'm sure there probably is and at that. In terms. You know partisan views. This is a crisis happening while republicanism the White House and therefore given today's polarized times I think you would expect. Some affect where Republicans are more likely to downplay the crisis Democrats are more likely to play up the crisis right. But I also think some of the effect use summit summed it. Numbers you see here are driven not by that not by partisans. Taking a partisan stance on an issue. But just by the different. Geographic. Area demographic make ups up the party where Democrats are likely in cities. Am. Republicans elected eleven rural areas and to you'd expect to see some difference there and how how scared people are. Here's that. Chapman and having breakfast the Arctic with he's our editor he's running for people who don't know chat chat Hachette students. But Blake he was talking in office he was like you know we Albany, New York. New York is basically just. And so it's like a vary so the news media is clustered in new York and DC. I'll also these cases are in Washington State and California and New York it's a blue state problem right now and I think that that's kind of you know could change who knows what that we you know we don't know how the virus will spread or if it will reach out fifty states my inclination of probably well. I'm not epidemiologist as a fair on us into this podcast. You know it though. You don't have to be with his oh yeah. Twitter. Added that the advocates judgment in listening to this the precocious. Not listen to it's list and city experts on diseases. I think right now this is currently geographically skewed and mind. Remember frogs disaster relief response the California fires urged the hurricanes hurricanes Florida Texas. Artery are in order that we aid that pat response was also part yeah I can't help thinking could. Could. The parts in particular that Ari happen. You're actually saw a town and Alabama saying no we don't want any of people who were quarantined from the cruise ship Ian Alabama. And truck was like okay fine and then assign him to California and then. California sued and said this is political favoritism or to touted California students of this political favoritism. But the worst article that analyzes those polls focuses a lot odd. Media consumption as we mentioned geographic difference says. So just the difference in what their say on Fox News vs what they're saying on you know of the networks or other cable news networks. Could make up this difference what he says. Commemorating the Fox's website now and it has quite a few headlines about it corona virus I mean I think like. Also picture of Hillary licking. Licking her backs. From Hunter Biden. Headlines Jill Brooke Joe's Breaux welcome all 530 podcast where we disagree did you get. Fox News I had all important and on the Fox News website is not. What a lot of people who follow our. I think infectious disease. Is something which. Understandably. Triggers people's anxieties. And I think it's not the kind of thing that you can. Suppress. Concerns about for all that long and I get calls the kind of thing that. Independently of that is a varied dramatic. News stories sessions where it tends to after effects on markets and stuff like that. And so mean that writers Poland B a perfectly good snapshot of what was going on. At the time I I'd. You know I'd take Mike is point like it is concert that matters more castration Blue States so far. But. I don't know I'm not sure of that like. Who knows how long can Esther Helen it's also more of a risk factor for people who were older yet which we also narrow. It is would mean that it skews towards Republican voter simply because they are. Yeah we also haven't talked about. I mean trump himself. Has been. Not sticking to use the talking points that the CDC would like him to stick to. He's. Erroneously asserted. That oh it's gonna fresher the national Fisher disappear blankets warm air there's going to be a vaccine. Those things might be true. But we don't know them yet that's Alan public health officials are telling people. Your president if you wanna get tested you can get tacit which is a bunch of people to try to get tested and occur which is very much not true in fact. There is there is a huge shortage of testing kits in the United States which is actually big problem for saint state like New York. The Atlantic hatton a very good piece about it which I would urge people to read by. Robinson my parent Alexis magical about basically. The lack of testing in the United States compared to other countries that have had. Of the topics that we don't even have a could be signed number for how many cases there are. But if you're a Republican who watches Fox News and Fox News heavily covering trumps trip to the CDC perhaps without the same sort of critical eyes at other. News outlets would have when covering those remarks you might have a different understanding of the risks of current of fires and again. There are a lot of question marks it could end up being the death rate of the flu or of the very bad flute. It could be worse it could be much worse for certain populations they just a lot of unknowns and I it is irresponsible for the president would be. It's grading things that perhaps give people false hope or false. Sense of security because people should be washing their hands coughing into their I'll close. And you know Alec rollicking polls there. And we don't wanna create panic I have a right as I said there's a lot of things that we simply do not know and I don't want to read some of these numbers are people get a sense of what the partisan divide it looked like at least last week. When it came to washing hands more often. 48% of Democrats and they were during that 38% of Republicans aborting physical contact 21% of Democrats 14% of Republicans. Alter travel plans 8% of Democrats 3% of Republicans. So and then haven't changed their daily routine 40% of Democrats. 54% of Republicans that there are differences but they're not like the vast differences between how Democrats are rent. And you care and you could see that closing down next to me we are also lately ten days into view. You know the announcement from the CDC kind of saying encourage airlines America this could be bad. Now we're sort of fully in. Like Walt while news coverage of this the markets are obviously taking a plunge. Futures markets are doing well also there's all there's the saw suspends and to some. Economic tier. Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if if those numbers close to your plan I mean I'm actually a little surprised at how oh how much there it's on Fox News on. On camera buyers and wondered an eight point lead if we reached a level of Europe out this and the fact you know with. That's clips the economy and and the stock market. Where it's just sort of like okay. We had a goal and soundness are partisan loyalties notwithstanding you know. Yet so do we rate there's a good use of polling or bad news of it. Linesmen are I think I I. A week fine that don't think. Part I would push back on the framing that like. Yet another example of how. How partisan people are aware I don't think the differences are that date and and probably there at least partly explainable. You know just by demographic and geographic and so before we move on. I do want to talk a little bit about what some of the overall political repercussions of corona virus could be now that as you've all mentioned. We are seeing wall to wall coverage and it's becoming. Cleared that it's spreading in the United States and not just the result of people returning from vacations it's it's so. How do we see this affecting the democratic primary. Joseph Biden is 77 years old Bernie Sanders a seventy years old. One of them had a heart attack this summer. They should not be having. Events shaking hands with lots of people over the country. Says five but it surgeon general. I guess I asked I think it's kind of like all if you're touching many people. If you're like its eye on the matter of time if you like. Just from its. You know statistical but like they are people in their seventies there are more vulnerable population. I think an average. I think it's look we've actually talked about the age of the candidates well be Fortis and now between Biden and Sanders and trump. To the point where I actually. My friends adamantly. Follow politics as closely date like a start asking about is is what's gonna happen here you know. So I think it's a totally natural natural question so apart from the age factor but what about. The kind of set pieces of the primary light holding rallies while campaigning we've kind of already discussed the national conventions. Is there are there are certain oxides are downsides to one candidate Larry Sanders or Biden when it comes to tackling and epidemiological. Crisis that. I think it's it's. Rallies and stuff aside. I think. Corona virus and the way that trump is handling it right now. Is almost an advantageous. News story for the democratic candidates. Don't want to be blunt about it. Because trump seems to be spreading misinformation. The administration seems to be back act heels a little bit the CDC which you know it can be democratic or Republican president and they can. I probably have the same underwhelming response and preparedness level. But if it's an if government's basic. Function. Is public safety and defense. The governor NN with the US and the trump administration falls down on that duty. In corona virus. That's automatically an advantage for the democratic candidates they can say this is mismanaged this was what happens when you don't have a properly run bureaucracy. Oh and by the way that economy that he was running on yeah lakes. Look look how look how unstable his entire platform it I mean I just think it's. It feels crafts to say the politics is crass a deal at this is a good story for Democrats. Yeah it in terms of the democratic prime Miami Mike you've seen some people say which is a reasonable. You know. Maybe people flock a little more troops to quote unquote safe candidate mechanic with experience in in a time of crisis and that would be made this helped spied in March my. But as Claire is getting at I think. The the potential for greater effect is in his in the general election actually was somebody was making this point a few weeks and I've just like. Trump that's actually gotten pretty lucky. For the first year you can few years of his presidency the extent to which there hasn't been a crisis right. Well North Korea early on. Some natural disasters but there hasn't been like a financial crisis. There has more terrorist attack. Florida and North Korea. Was making yeah that wasn't. It was a template. External crisis like. God forbid terrorists attacked in an aura help Chrysler like this is Lauren you know whatever and up like a it pandemic. Is. So unpredictable. It makes it leaves all these like. In the northern Italy finished and shut down which is. You know like a wartime measure and the idea that. That an American president would have to potentially grapple with in the coming weeks should we be. Shut down an American city essentially should be like should be restrict air track like those are really big decisions that have. Probable effects on people's everyday lives and sense of well being and safety and that's. No and an enemy act. I think you did kind of skip over there is some evidence that's pertinent on the democratic primary side. The kind of direct evidence is that CNN's poll this morning asked to do you preferred by now Sanders national yeah. To handle a national crisis and and Biden who is doing well the poll overall it was still like forty points and a measure. And yet our company get the indirect conflict. The indirect evidence is that. Bernie sees me Biden has been rising in the polls to kind of almost. Ridiculous extensive look at some these state polls it's almost so. Large leads now somebody's polls it's kind of hard to dot com. You know obviously the most likely culprit for that is Super Tuesday but he also wonder if like. If people are like you know what. Should it's getting scary. Biden is someone who I trust Biden helped handle the Ebola response. I want listening to be over. It's been a long contest it's going to be Biden with just and that's what Biden so. Okay that's when it comes to the primary Claire might have been talking about the general and the argument that the Democrats house against the tribe administration are due by that. This is not good for trump I mean I think I think there is. A lot of uncertainty about how it'll turn out you know I mean I think. One thing that I feel semi qualified to say. Is that I think people tend to at tend to underestimate both the worst case and that best case scenario is right how bad. The worst case scenario could be and also from mild the best case scenario could be I think people in a spokesman mental growth and you change a little variable tiny bit. And year on a very different trajectory. But clearly like. You know I think if you go to prediction markets which are stupid. They have like a 60% chance 60 of a recession at some point this year that was seem like a very material. Problem for trump and I don't buy that will people blame it on corona virus like well I don't know I mean we're gonna get some national polling soon that'll ask about his handling. All of it but like. Just the strategy like. Have minimize this at the start. The to try to quell fears in the stock market just seemed like. I don't know I mean people are so used to like oh well trump can get away with anything but again. If you look at the actual elections we've had heeded debt badly in the mid term you lost only special elections Knight and if you look at the polls right now then. Then Joseph Biden and Bernie Sanders are. Ahead of him in the polling average by a large enough margin to. Overcome what will almost certainly mean Electoral College its advantage in for the Democrats and so it's kind of like. So I don't know I don't know like. I don't know why there's just like Thomas it was mistook an optimistic about Trump's. Reelection to by the way this bouncy got in the polls after. Impeachment to the you do get seems to have worn off is that wearing off anyway. It is corona virus during two affect people's I don't but we know any of that yet. Yet so we're obviously gonna talk about this more in the coming weeks because it wall. Last weeks if not months at this point. So we'll have more time to dig into Roberta do wanna talk about the election tomorrow let's take a look at the race nationally before we zoom in on the State's voting on Tuesday so heading into Super Tuesday we said that we didn't have enough data to get a clear picture. Aware of the race was between Biden Sanders and ball at that point even Klobuchar born Bloomberg in the race. Neat at this point do we have better data. And if so what does the race look like nationally. The polls hired. A disaster for her. Bernie and or very good for Biden depending on which framing you prefer. It's actually the state polls that are are. Bigger issues for Bernie than the national polls mean that only the tumultuous national polls have him down. Sixteen points which for references like. A larger lead. They and Clinton had over Sanders for most of the twenty. Sixteen primary. The state polls I mean I mean let me go to our little polling data base here latest polls. Project staff are 38 dot com black's last poles a place to see all the polls. All the time Michigan Biden plus 41 Illinois Biden plus when he nine Michigan Biden plus thirty. Florida Biden post when he eight. Michigan Biden post when he for Arizona Biden plus 28 Michigan Biden post when he won in Mississippi Biden plus 55. Missouri Biden plus thirty. Okay that is not a competitive primary. That is not a primary that. That there's much doubt about the winner so we're at the point now where. Where if anything these national polls. Might low Boller are modeled by the ways pretty conservative with national polls says Italy and Russia national polls as a national primaries will be very conservative but the staples we'll get more aggressive. Are you ready to call a primary over. Let me. The brought my assets over the forecast at 95%. 95%. Or whatever 1924. A case that's not a but let me put it like this you're about the litany stated it's over but Perry and hot and fight jumped in the first of all we have we have tomorrow. There's got into premature to declare anything because I like. You have lots of people voting in the next eight days right tomorrow on the net 600 delegates roughly go a week from tomorrow. I am more. Worried. That's an external factors kind of outside the scope of the model to candy getting sick I'm like almost think that might be the way that Ramallah can be wrong. More than like. A spectacular guards only heighten its current buyers for bird. Voting. Do you still come. Well this is not as extra model poll we're not like it's not so that was considering certain nail down what you just. Apart from any external factor and record comment and really shake things up in an on sports scene right you think. Let me and let me say it precisely. If the polls are right. The polls are just for senator right or wit or even approximately right. Then the race is over if the polls are pretty wrong the race is still probably over. If that polls are really wrong. Then Biden's probably still but he hurt you don't mean it's like it's like. You know I mean we'll see an exodus of I think there's no need for like old. Bernie is toast is an eight days if he loses yeah Florida. By 33 points and Arizona by twelve points and Illinois and Ohio by thirteen points than it is kind of like mathematically. Not mathematically but like. Then it's over right then it's over barring some extreme shock and so there's no point to get like. Candidate felt like I think because if and so much other news. Like in his way ahead right I mean you know Washington State. Which is supposed to win the Bernie states is the tide now on the polls affect he's a little bit our forecast generously I think hasn't. Half a point ahead but like it's actually he's been a little bit behind in the polls in Washington State amending the polls around. I mean and they could be writing the direction but like our model accounts for a lot of involved in polling. Biden is not so much that maybe they can't Q Kang in any direction maybe anonymous so much but it it's an eight point think it's pretty amazing. After Super Tuesday you know we were waiting for results of that update the forecast and if you had asked me OK what's a Kenosha by and had such great Super Tuesday. Both because Super Tuesday and reflected in an eight Q department and and we can't quick note with the national race was. Before Super Tuesday with the use Super Tuesday as a test to measure of where once it was like OK I'd in his is way out front here. But also because Super Tuesday then author of the added could have the added effect. A producing a bounce from buy it and I still would have I was very surprised when forecast showed. I think at first attempt by 90% at seven and eight favorite moments I am. But this is why it's so good to have a model it's because. Like why what with my sense based gone right like not much. And then it the polling that has come out since sweet turned our forecast yet I rise if anything anything the you know so it's like. I'm I think. I think people. I don't know I want to wait for tomorrow and the next couple elections casinos Sanders beat his polls in Michigan and in points sixteen obviously but like. You know. If you if you if you based on the data that's Biden's way out front which is pretty surprised. Certain. Clinic now that it is a two person race and it has one wired by clear one of the pond wars all of and eight kind of contest between Biden and Sanders Wear our. What kind of our art we see much of attacks now calls Terry shared. This is not even get our spot and not even Arafat. What kind of contest are we seeing between Biden and Sanders whatever campaign strategies. Well I think you've seen this Danish team. Recognize late in the game with say an ad that features Brack Obama prominently. That perhaps. It's a good game to play just trying to expand your your coalition or penal little bit more. You know. In Sanders is accused dean night's. Speech deadly industries and speech he. We have really attacks Biden quite. Forcefully in this way that hadn't really. Totally happens on the trail link certainly debates are different story. But I think it just turns into like the sooners team can pass to do every last. Gasp effort and the nineteen can kind of start running into election campaign right like they've RD. They made their big play on Super Tuesday via electability. And that's that gave their play for the rest of the that however many months we have left in this campaign I mean it's not. Super complicated like and I'm kind of curious to see. How long Sanders stays in the race this is kind of assuming that the model is probably right in that Biden a likely clinch the nomination. As we all remember. Very well. The Sander stayed in the primary until. June June. And it's march and the conventions like July. Some militant middle of July you do kind of wonder. Wind he would drop a note what. Like and does the fact that he stayed until June 4 years ago and we ended up with president trump. From his point of view. That does that change things I'm not thing that's not a tactic but. No you know your point he will he will face the same difficult choice that every other major candidate who's dropped out has space witches. I drop out should I endorse. Joseph Biden. You know win should I do it obviously. You know Klobuchar. Footage edge. Now Harris. And Booker this morning all endorsed. Biden for the big super Tuesday's. You know what when would Sanders do something like that is kind of to me that the big question and that this is me kind of assuming now. That look at the singer's strategy would be. Less gas we are. We can turn out a bigger coalition even that didn't happen. On Super Tuesday to some of their arguments are kind of shot which kind of makes it difficult. I do want to talk a little bit about that because we've seen a lot of analysis turn on turnout numbers and turnout looks as if it's been high in places where Biden has done while. And low in places where Sanders has done well and there's been particular focus on suburban areas around. Northern Virginia at Dallas Fort Worth Houston Orange County at center. Having really high turnout and growing strongly for Biden's and then some of these more rural areas were Sanders did really well in 2016. Not turning out in high numbers. Can we what's the analysis why is this happening is simply that young people are turning out and that. The anti trump vote in like suburban America just like in 2018 is really strong does that kind of what it is. I. Think. I mean we did some is his way back when. That show that about 20% of whatever percent of Bernie's boat into when he sixteen was likely never Hillary voters people just didn't like Clinton. And they were often people who were. In rural areas who are white working class these people seem to have no objection at least at present. To Joseph Biden they may not like kind of the more. Liberal. Culturally direction of Biden of the Bernie campaign has taken right and so like I mean this is why like people like well. Byrd a Cuban mission if you look at the Ares looked a lot like mission and how they voted so far they look like mr. might be an above average state for Biden. Actually right you have a fairly half American population. You have very few Hispanics. You have a lot of working class whites it's not a particularly young state. You know. There are some big universe is there that will help Bernie but like. Like you know it's a different map than you hadn't when he sixteen I also think that the speed of the spying thing. Has. Has. Put them Bernie campaign on its heels right they have on the one hand the arguments about. Social security and Biden's. At times implying he might console security which I think is probably a better argument the stage right there's also a lot of chatter about always you know. Titans mental decline which is not authorized the senator's campaign but like some of I think that'd. The Sanders stands on Twitter getting into that territory there's a lot of due to about a factor of I don't think it's the idea argument when your candidate is. Is happier older and has some health issues I think that's not the argument you wouldn't take right. Arm but also the Sears campaign seems to have been never prepared for work. For Biden in a weird way right I go back to the story. Back in March at the campaign. Was talking to some Atlantic reporter about like our strategy is to basically in an ever explicit right there like we wanna have. The largest this is not quite company said it right there like we would have the largest. Faction and we think if we maintain the largest faction then. The part will get behind us which is a stretch it looked like pretty Smart until. A week and a half ago. But nowhere in that article to they mentioned Biden. Except once in passing right but not reference to their strategy and if it they think well we can. We can meet all other candidates right we can beat back bent though we can be backed terrorists and whatever else right. But there was a consideration of Biden who number one. Actually does do pretty well with working class voters you know number two. Might be creature of the east elephant but kind of seems folks here in that doesn't quite have that reputation as much and like so I think they've been put on their heels elected and height. It's happened so fast this is one of it. Fastest polling movements in American primary history don't like I don't. Entirely blame them but at the same time like like they don't really seem to have a coherent through line against by. Yet on Tuesday as I mentioned earlier the following states will weigh in on the democratic primary. Michigan Washington Missouri Mississippi Idaho and North Dakota also Democrats abroad will finish their voting process. Does this Tuesday have a name by the way. Triple triple triple M Tuesday in Michigan Missouri and Mississippi accurate triple M Tuesday sponsored by nature. With. This should. OK so we've already gotten into excess all little man. A Biden has a 99%. Chance of winning Michigan and of course in 2016 Michigan. Says that 4% or model and if mostly clamped Sanders went on yeah. And but Sanders ended up winning so. Are we more confident in the deed there's. Time around. Nature that says yes. I think of that not so much has site. Oh Michigan and there's something out Michigan M particular. I think about what Michigan and 26 team shows it's just that. Something once in awhile you do get a big pulling mess. And says it's that it's that more general role. Caution. That that I would urge people to have not. You know maybe there's me mates from Sheehan titans beat the pats a first of all. Biden's lead is actually. Bigger now. Clinton's us it's big enough that like. If he had if polls have been that far off. The Clinton would have narrowly won Michigan's huge polling ministry which would ordinarily one. Instead of narrowly lost. You know in their other things Selig the trajectory is clearly very favorable for Biden here in the most importantly like. You know. Your priors that Biden is ahead. At least low double digits nationally. That Michigan is probably at least an average state for him if not a little bit above average so it's gonna like. You know could the polls that we ought meant UA often Biden only wins by fifteen instead of 29. Sure you'd hope that's a big polling error. But like I don't know it's almost borders on like superstition. Right like the question of like. Our polling errors replicated from year to year. On the same state is like. Is like an empirical question and the answer I think is. Mostly know with some exceptions and by the way because mr. Bolton so bad a August and pollsters get pretty low ratings you know what I mean. The makes a mile a little bit more cautious. But light but. I don't know I mean I think I think people on her. Are. Something truly shocking. Any much greater way than to any sixteen would have to happen for Sanders to when Michigan so Claire. Name mentioned the part of centers coalition in 2006 team being an anti Clinton vote and maybe Michigan is a good place. To look at that because it seemed like Michigan along with other midwestern states were kind of suited to Sanders. What we weren't about Sanders is collection and perhaps voters' response to Clinton in the 2016 primary. As 22 morning. Well I think it's what made sense it a lot of people were anti Clinton voters. I also think that. Ian states like Ohio Michigan and Pennsylvania. Do you have like among. The white populations. Pavlik a cultural sensibility that resonates with Biden on some level more than. See it like Sanders was the non elites candidate to Clinton but Biden count Alec feels that out too he's like. You know it's the whole X Scranton show. White Catholic. Kind of thing that makes people. Feel like L I come and you politicians like that my ST he's a familiar figure. He's not he doesn't feel for an and in a way to like. Like. A war and might have to them because he could stick elect Harvard elite. I think it's it's. It's hard to compare and some is the 2016 primer at the 20/20 partly because of the anti Clinton. Sentiment being so pervasive. Like that's the fight between Sanders and Biden is so interesting because. In states like Michigan you we talked for a lot of months about how Biden and Sanders voters actually shared certain characteristics and so. I think in states like me she let again Michigan Pennsylvania whatever Wisconsin Ohio. You could see people kind of being like I like both of them but all things being equal Biden has proven to me that he's more her. Quota gore electable he had these big wins share let's go up like it's it's. But cut but like from a cultural sensibility point of view it's interesting that Biden and Sanders are the last man. Standing and. Yet it's a one reason I I I cannot hope their race goes on a little bit mongers like I think it's so fascinating. And will be so fascinating to compare by Dan Sanders against Clinton's handlers because I do you think. Deep hatred for Clinton and the aversion to Clint and especially revolve around gender and stemming from Jan there. Was a big factor in some some of standards support and in 2016 and how much of that Galveston Biden will. It's also interesting if you think about 2008 to 2016 to 220 because in 2008. Hillary Clinton was doing really well in Western Pennsylvania and those kinds of areas of the country that ended up. Four years later sorry eight years later being really good areas for Sanders and not precarious for Clinton now four years after that you have these areas. We're really good for Sanders being better for Biden. It just kind of like politics is all relative in a whack. Yes totally you have Biden's kinda getting the Tom. Kind of the Clinton only NAFTA with black and Hispanic voters traversed from way. Alone but Hispanic voters are where Hispanic voters are and I think it's an interesting question he. You know one of the states that we thought our model but my ticket for Bernie was Arizona he clearly has done well and banning California. Ended Tyler live well in Texas of the lost. But Arizona has a lot of old people. And it's kind of has a culture of conservatism politically. And Bernie was way down that Arizona poll we finally saw it when the first prisoners in the polls we've had few recent and other. So yes I mean I don't know I mean look the fact is that like. Members constituency just isn't very big right now and so kind of no matter how you slice and places and it's canola. Kind of bad and the one place that seem like it was pretty perfect for birdies twisting constituency is California. Which has now voted. And so you know there's and we're gains to be had from there. If doctor friend. For an of the pod. Make tone here times upshot. Blog. Applaud you that you like 538 on to explain the joke therapy. People when they want electorate vote at 530 don't call them. Or. Mike cut right at Nate silver's law Friday. So yep shutter our co blog and your time off. He estimated that to get their Super Tuesday results you had. It was equivalent to Biden. Being had by twenty points nationally. I'm Myron. Which means that because the raw vote count was when he points it means that like. That was actually pretty good set of states for burglars because of California has so many votes. Perhaps early. Yeah he's gonna for early voting and right alike but if that's the case and like you know that it's just not that close and we're so used to like. We're so used to parameters that are competitive and to watch is in a comparative. In this primary was competitive as a like. Two weeks ago now. That you know landslides looked really impressive and currently the polling shows. The potential landslide for Biden we'll see if that holds up in reality. So the one state that what's good for Sanders on Tuesday's Washington and he still has 51% chance of winning their. What about Washington give and that repeated such. Kind of dire picture from Sanders camp why's he still. Favored in front not really favorite. Even shot to win Washington. Western. YE. And our people voted. Newton an Asian. It. Artists are continuing down the line and then low ball rap producer can we don't need to go through every stage images like it's 99% providing here it's 92 for right here. Where yours is on the Monica. Well I just think look. What would let sent a benchmark of what it denied. Her. Bernie would be and like. Let's. Let's not based it strictly on the forecast let's sort of like correct but before we do not let me just tell people where the forecast is and then kind of hate me a picture of what would be to connect to on the block. Check out the blind spot so they're is that Washington fifty resigned chance for Sanders Missouri 93% chance for Biden. Mississippi 99% chance providing. Idaho 50% chance for pride and and finally North Dakota is a 65%. And Democrats are sorry it is. If it's not as I think we're low balling burning Democrat rod yeah on the record our models and has Democrats about 5050 I think clean burning there are marvelous thing Gannett territories. I guess I guess in for Bernie looks like him winning the last State's case. I'll I when Ross so that's the question is. Are we now at a point where we would call it good night for Bernie even if he does mystery and no cattle now. In fact that promise servers that like if for England's missed him by a point he's still gonna lose delegates on the evening probably because it means is gonna lose. Missouri by fifteen Mississippi by 38 right kind of break even elsewhere may begin a few points in Washington a few delegates like. So yes I totally agree that that this is violent it's it's only a forecasts is like I think if Bernie if we if if Bernie one mission by point. And am on North Dakota I'd oh. And them fighting cleans up in Missouri Mississippi. I think we would get caught a comeback no I think we would say when they said his site this is though. You know. A world where Sanders is in trouble I think the media would cause I'm. Am. And so what. What would that that that's a weird world because. Are we at a point now on a race where the media narrative doesn't matter and it just about delegates and who gives if the media calls to come back and produces a bounce. Org or does it some. Yeah what am I mean is it if it's still a point in the race were mathematically things. If they turned around in this election to RO were it would matter tank and that's why it's at 95% chance and not a 100% chance I think that's right well but the thing is also like at this point. You be such a polling threw up if Biden or lose Michigan. The man you have to wonder. Are these poles a good yeah anymore. You know they are just beat you would be pretty strange. Are so I think. We can leave things there. For now we were we got for a lot. And as we've been recording the Dallas continue to drop in the quarantine people Watson listen I cast going to be doubling the length of through. We lost him in her car Jarrett the quality of wire pipe has made their data for all corners irony volume as a it is and that in the huddle works are any frequently but I think Jimmy. They declared things and think you Micah thank you. And also a reminder to check out our live blog tomorrow night we won the light lugging the results as they come in from. All of that State's you can ask questions. And we podcast went over. Until then my name is TO entry attorney channel is in the control room you can get in touch my emailing us at podcast I pretty calm. You can also of course greeted us with questions comments if your fan of the show liters of Reading or reviewed and apple podcasts or. Or tell someone about us thanks for listening and. Yeah.
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