Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: COVID-19 deaths are rising. What will the U.S. do?
It's it's never met a child need to. Hello and welcome to the identity politics podcast I'm Gayle injury in case there was any the United States is again facing it quoted nineteen crisis. After more than two months of decline Covert nineteen related apps are on the rise again. Data from the New York Times currently shows about 60000 new cases per day and doubts around 700 court. The question now is what is the United States gonna do it. What do Americans want what do politicians support and are those two things the same. So we're gonna dig into that today were also gonna interrogate some post 2016. Wisdom in the Democratic Party. After Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016. Some Democrats concluded that she spent too much time talking about quote on pro identity politics. Today Biden is spending a lot of time talking about race and issues facing minorities. Any seems to be doing just fine so what's different forty years later here at me to discuss our editor in chief Nate Silver Haney. A given. Also with us is senior politics are clear on a choir. And senior politics writer Perry bacon junior an apparent. And I also wanted to mention before we get going that Carrey is going to be joining us full time on Mondays. I hope listeners you've appreciated his analysis and reporting these fat past few weeks as much as we have. So were excited to have him to help cover the 2000 the 20/20 election. As things heat up so officially welcome Perry thank you can appreciate that. And Mike it is busy as ever as managing editor at 538 you certainly haven't heard blossom and you'll be turning us from time to time on this podcast. So let's talk about the increase in corona virus cases and now. Deaths so on top of that concerns about the virus among Americans are back to all time highs. Horry even above where they were in the spring in some cases. So let's start off with a broad question and and then we can narrow in ons and tea tails so knee kick us off. What do Americans want to do you about this crisis at this moment in time. And one our politicians. Willing to a year to kind of stand of iris given where we are now. You know I think Americans just want to go away and having no idea how to Makiko way I mean I think it's a very difficult. Problem. In polls. People mostly say that we're reopening too fast and so too slowly. That has been fairly consistent. Over the months. People start changing their pain at that we case going down and now people are being more cautious again. When you asked that question and they're kind of concerns about corona virus RR. On the rise again. I think there's some question here how well. People's prescriptions for what politicians should do. Or how people should behave. Matches up with their own behavior. People are wearing masks more. But social distancing less. EasyJet both new kind of asked people like hey where you socially just and is quicker to go see friends and family. As of last month for example in majority of Americans are saying we DC friends and family now occasionally. If you look at data attracts people's movement from apple or whatever. We saw big up ticks in movement over the course the spring that may be abating now is people are being more careful especially. In the south in the southwest where you have a lot of issues right now. But light. I think the fundamental problem. Is that lock downs and social distancing. We're not a solution there anyone. Intended. Two persists for more than let's college two to treatments right. The it was supposed to be that we do you lock down social distancing and it sucks. But while we're doing that we set up a better testing in tracing infrastructure. We learn more about the virus right and we kind of create a sustainable medium term future where it's possible to get someone back to normal. In table the long rhyme when you get a vaccine or treatments that really kind of make it more easily have like a real version of normal right. The United States as a whole did not really do that. So when I'm singers like this is pretty. A pretty difficult. Problem. You have like. You know either. A lot of coverage spreading. Or a lot of distance in which people get fatigued by or you have to have all the really sophisticated solutions that frankly America my happy at the task too with the current leadership that we have in charge so you're kinda screwed either way. Need sad that there is increasing support. Former you know being careful more social distance saying skepticism about reopening to currently. How does that interacts way is. The appetite among politicians to you know institute and enforce restrictions. And pretty careful as re kind of part. I think we're getting into. Some difficult. This the science of current virus is becoming a little bit more clear to us. Also. The pressing problems are becoming more complicated I think insulting the big problems the really really really sticky problems. Up schools and child care. Have me politicians. Wade into a debate that's are ready vary excite typically murky. Up for people's personal risk assessment very murky. And Strom and Abbas and the number up there. Republican politicians weighed in in this kind of partisan way today day. I hope the schools back up in the fall trump went so pars to say we're going to. Withhold federal funding for some schools it. Don't reopen. So. I think that's really complicated thing is that we've layered. Politics to lease situation and I think that the biggest crisis right now face America is about reopening schools to do about child care crisis. Which were doubts too. The economy particularly to women caretakers of children. We are seeing that really complicated problem he politicized in this way that I think makes. Sama. Public health act best practices particularly in states like Florida and Texas that are. Experiencing problems. Crisis wait what's it northeast experienced in the early Spragan. That really makes politicians. Public comments quite. We EI you know seek. It's how many bases this is the worst kind of debate for politicians toll and not in part because. No fault of their it did to their training they're not. They're largely not doctors or public health professionals and therefore cannot is kind give. Them oh. Yet straightforward talk I think a lot of people want so there there absolutely no clear answers office. Which is not something that our partisan mindset. Beds well. So even just focus saying. On kind of public opinion and what Americans think about reopening squirrels I dug up some polling on this and if you look nationally. In general majority of Americans worry about a rush to reopen schools. On the state level law I saw 65% of tax and say that it's on safe to send their kids to school right now. Californians a majority favor a partial reopening or no reopening over a full reopening. But it also seems like location matters a little bit in the sense that a majority of Michigan Anders do feel at least somewhat comfortable sending their kids back to school and there's a pretty significant partisan split there. So buying when the majority of Americans and in some of these states that are experiencing. Outbreaks right now. There's a lot of skepticism of sending kids back to squall. Are people like trump de Voss and Desantis making these blanket statements like send everybody back to school or you know funding might be how. What's going on there. And I think the short answer is trumps sort of view of Trump's view of this is. I want to green America sort of back to normal as soon as possible. And you can one unit I think the record that might be music really need to reduce the virus spread first and that's the key to that. He seems that they get we get everybody back to work in gear to back to school. That will make America normal and I think it will reduce the unemployment rate that's true it will make it easier for some parents this true. It also ms. my resolve the further spread of the rotavirus and there for a would not make America back to what is I think he has a strategy that is both focus on. And so this sort of like. Probably elect oral on the says he wants you know tolerate to go down they civil do that is probably a little bit ideological as well I don't think it's he'd like to the public school teachers. Are nervous of the make the school bets either of us does not like to both leaders who would lead to a much of anything so I'm not surprised he disagrees with them. But I do think it's worth isolating Iran. I think if you ask most Americans should schools open they would ask questions blood it wasn't like we hear. In a place where the if the play of the city has no corona virus can assure you they would ask way here. How's it always used since older teachers be exempted too young hoosiers go more CB pays certain people more extreme make sure the lunch ladies don't go out there over seventy. I think this is a complicated issue and I think most Americans the people I talk to the poll suggests someone of nuance here. And the problem I don't think it's even Republican voters in the polls suggest some nuance in their views. And I would just isolated. Ron Desantis Mike Pence Donald Trump and it's either of us are not speaking any nuance at all. I don't think it's politicians I think it's a few politicians a lot of power. Gore's speaking in very un nuanced ways and shaping this debate knowing I don't think you Miata democratic governors are saying closed every school ever the extremist them I would say is on one side. And I think what's hard about the question of schools which are which is inextricably linked with child care both at home and child care centers. Yes there's also a lot of different all the plots stakeholders there's parents' there's teachers. There's politicians there's the business community Alton have a stake in children going back to school also have concerns. The other big thing about schools going back reopening even in places that don't have they. Outbreaks is well teachers and students have the proper Kiki actually cost quite a bit of money. I am your also need to. Care supplements that you you first grader. And they're going to school two times a week in school she got at. Supervise those other three days a week. Care which would usually you. Lots of really top seeded. Problems here. The fall is going to the matter what happens. Hot mess and I think. Politicians. It. Don't want it now are let's say trump doesn't want acknowledged that. In some way because he does want the idea OK we have some idea that younger children. Apps less susceptible you know there's all I've seen a lot of arguments from frank Gillick left leaning academics that said. You know should push to have elementary school age children. Go back to school Ers sixteen GB. Excellent actor cops. And also have to be concerned for. Parents the economy parents be able to Wear. Again women being able to war. In normal times women to you twice as much. Child care and that day meant. So imagine kids be and that's it that's Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's not me at so imagine you know people weapon at home with their children. Am trying to work trying to do you. Take care they're at school age children. Expert is falling on women this has women are like 47% the American workforce this is gonna have a huge effect on the economy this is not just. Woman your kids with Italy's. Famous kids problem this is an American. That is exit. I mean yeah. So first of all. There is evidence that. Getting coveted is much less likely. To kill you or cause severe harm if yours. The child. Like much less likely doesn't mean it never happens but like it's a pretty dramatic shift and that's fortunate because. Not all epidemics are like that right in fact there are many epidemics we're you have a U shaped curve where it's really bad in children and in old people. You know if you tried actually quantify it ward of the long term consequences of having a disrupted. Let's call it. Six months worth of education as districts reassess in the spring. They're pretty severe and the else perpetuate. Inequities because distance learning doesn't work as well if you don't have a reliable Internet connection or computer at all in your home right. So. The question is. How much. Our teachers and people that worked school staff going to be affected by this right. You know that's hard to now I'm in the abstract could have like the kids come. And then the teachers even remotely and I you do that are something. About a child. We'll tell you could have some. I think we supported natively Alec like it was the morning at least a forum like it was never. If on the so I'm to sort of shape it is like but yet the L raising like. This conversation that requires. Some subtlety. And some honesty about tradeoffs right it's thing. Some additional people will get sick as a result of this boomer teachers. But like I. It's not as bad as having all our children. Has missing happier of education right I mean I don't know I don't had to make an assessment that like that's a conversation that the country probably needs to have him when truck comes and that makes it very hard to have that needed conversation. Right so part of this conversation. A power happening yet. You know. Weighing risks but battles are being entrepreneurial and argue about educating children and you are trying to Levy the burden that parents have been feeling for months at this point. Comes down to politicians congress appropriating funds the next relief bill. And I want to talk about the politics of that. So part of addressing this stage the virus where cases are growing again and at the same time. You know we're thinking about whether or not to send it back to school at how. Also coincides where it as a criminal lot of the relief that congress passed in the spring. Is running out those increased unemployment benefits of 600 dollars per week. The paycheck protection program. Was never meant to last well past the Sommer. And so now it's up to congress to figure out what to do. You know and on top of that congress takes usually a recess in August so it has about two weeks to try to solve this problem at this point. Perry what are the conversations like on Capitol Hill what are the current dynamics. One of the problems is there is not a lot composition happening right now you know the Democrats pass the bill I've forgotten about six weeks ago. They Tenet head you know the kind of had a lot like aid to states more. Money protesting in a it was a very big expansive I think several trillion dollars bill. There was a sort of another cold in relief bill. The Republicans have said they have been reluctant to lead the air they've been pretty opposed to any Tennessee heat until recently. They want to have a much smaller bill one trillion dollars at maximum. And so part of the divide here in the in as a big divide right now and this reason there's no conversation. Is it because Republicans and trump generally believe the bigger the bills bigger relief bills. Will it makes will have more people staying on unemployment. Not working may be more kids not going to school the states get more. That'll stop the efforts to bring things back to normal and the Republicans are disrupt want to give people back to normal terms their jobs in terms of their schools. Now that was the debate is like two weeks ago probably the one thing has shifted is as Arizona and Texas and Florida. Have these new spreads. It looks like it's gonna be untenable to sort of say we're going back to normal so light do you think. Some kind of legislation is going to pass now is going to have more unemployment benefits more state gays the question is now like. And less about who the parties disagree. The Republicans are coming to the democratic position and the question will be how far did they move in that direction like my guess is. They will pass some kind of unemployment benefits that are not as generous as the ones before but are still not the sort of system we had in January. Yet something like a one or two time like lump sum payments. Plus side believed there are some discussion about. Her Perry's point of concern that people are scan Stan implement girls they'll give you like a bonus you reenter the workforce so. You'd get asylum. You find a job at you you aren't a one time payment again. But it is a needed is a complicated. They probably need to happen sooner rather than later I believed tied up and that extension of the relief is you know certain Republican senators have also been calling for. Giving more money to schools in order to shore up CP he so it's PT TPE. Ater but that's actually true but like them the relief package should include greater safety measures for schools but there are also you know bills. I have not gotten a lot of public attention that I think. Will potential the it could have big impacts you know they're not implemented. Next year to which is the democratic backed bill it believed it was sponsored by Patty Murray. Outlook bailing out the child care industry's. Fifty billion dollars in order to news shore up these largely small businesses. Which small margins and obviously people don't want send their kids to take care right now because. It got a fever for daycare in normal times you know you're scared sending them. Acted. The child care during that time and some of those those places have stayed open during a pandemic Q. Take care of the kids of essential workers so they argue we. App worked this time but there's lots of I think. Industries that we haven't been paying attention to and that we are just now starting to pay attention to particularly as we take. Into consideration its the school's problem. And frankly some of that that child care discussions have to do with OK idioms and your kid to date carries and two grandma. English paying Graham a some money to write so there's also these kind of how to be competency in this new kind of the shift. Economy that where where are gone for the fall how do we make sure that people aren't. We're ardea margins are all. At it. Usually the wisdom seems that if your the incumbent president a bunch of stimulus spending. Could only benefit. If you're trying to win re election. I mean I I stick. Which would be part of the reason that you know one would assume that if a Democrat were in office adds there was a Republican controlled congress. That we wouldn't be spending at the same amount for relief and stimulus teams like Democrats are on board. And if anything it could help trump elect orally to be spending a lot of money putting cash in people's pockets. Where is this resistance coming from. Sugar. Ideological. Content you know Pryor's I think Craig because you would wanted. Put money in people's hands that's one reason why initially people were like actually I still approve. Of Trump's problems and economies because the economy was made more robust by the fact that you had a fairly generous stimulus package a minute just purely. You know. It's purely electorally idiotic. If there are issues with maybe create perverse incentives OK we've had a lot of time nation have some Smart staffers. Draw up better incentives to avoid that right we're not rushing this legislation anymore exactly. Yeah there's no thirteen dimensional chess just idiotic in terms of electorally for forgetting GOP members reelected. I mean the questions you know should Democrats kind of play hardball because. They don't wanna help with that trump in the GOP that's a marching question I think politically 'cause they McEnroe gets what they stand for. But downing an excellent sense. Yeah I'm able don't want to ask that question what are Democrats want all of us. And they they want bigger stimulus bill does that because they think they would miss the trend has solved problem I think to some extent. I mean I don't think the Democrats need this bill to help them politically in some ways because trumps handling of the you know you hear. They are doing fine they don't need like in general. Passing a bill that would alleviate a crisis but help the incumbent will be worrisome of the boot that was a two point race. I think you would have some behind the scenes discussion about shard Democrats savings dropped by doing this bill. You'll be behind the scenes because the deal would help people see you couldn't talk with that in public. But I think at this point we're trump is down ten points I don't they Democrats that nervousness. Passing a bill will help him that much because they can. There's sure Gil. Part in some wondered is on the else weird in the next hour and bring himself back down. Do we odd that there has been in this for urgent immediate if we talk about typical owner talking that trots Republican Party were talking about how trump the it is how different from the conventional Republican Party it is. To do we find it like interesting at all that there is this perversion to like. More typical fiscal conservatives. It stinks in this crisis rather then like. You know let's and we need to inject some emergency cash into the economy. Sure I'm name like yeah. Yeah I mean it if anything this might be the kind of she we're company like you know screw you Mitch McConnell right our economy is. Needs a lot of help right now right we need to protect people need to get back to normal deficit spending it's not written to borrow right now right so yeah it means is kind of you know unorthodox or had heard acts republicanism that like kind of people who were making. And no excuses for truck being more moderate that he was might have made. Four years ago in and he seems not to have budged. There matched. Horror. Which is goes along when NATO saying I mean I think one thing that they give and I've been doing more reading about this is whether. We college holds a Republican Party on immigration policy I would tedious jobs of organ party on sort of raise issues maybe it is. On sort of like core this goal questions. Is this ms. McConnell party it is and as Mitch McConnell sort of one. You know trump campaign and when he sixteen maybe you don't believe him in the united we said the believed him. But the sort of infrastructure but to bill which limited jumped after well trouble of the other structures rending does not happening and then it became obvious that Mitch McConnell was sort of yes him and then never let the bill moves so in some ways. They like this raises the question again of light. Did is this trumps Republican Party in the S that is sometimes. It's interesting because it's similar academic or economic. Part threat of politics that. Peppered me more traditional you know. So and that's it. But those aren't chumps strengths at all our child's interests. Yeah I mean it seems like one from strength in 2016 was jettisoning the least popular some of the least popular policy. Is all of the Republican Party which were things like privatizing Social Security or you know caught eight Medicare Medicaid spending things like. But that part of the party clear V tells still exist on you know. One thing that I was surprised about you and prepared arms conversation and walking act. You know cases increasing and public opinion is that it seemed like there is some support or even majorities support. To shut down state again to shut things down when cases are on the rise one poll 57%. Of Americans support. Re closing state economies were at our outbreaks and other polls at 65 ports that. Is that surprising. End and you know we've been talking about power public opinion is going to interact with policies. In this case do we actually expect states to close again. I mean no I don't expect states to close again. Because I don't think it's. That is popular with. Gave you have a Republican governor I just think that's not going to happen because that's not a Republican. I think the Republicans are done with state closers I think this is an do you whether the Republican voters although weight up with a Republican at least feel that way. Immediate the united democratic state I think the way this happened is that likes like when you close a state the way to the states were closed. You lose so much revenues this you really can't afford to do that he hear a Kentucky getting to governor here sort of moved he's a Democrat. Some have moved on these issues once you see they your revenues are going down by so much. And the feds have been very reluctant Mitch McConnell and trump a reluctant to bail out states. I don't think it's realistic for really any state to have this kind of set down a list of some broader shift in our politics and I don't see happening I do think. You'll see things like mask requirements give you scenery were like red state governors. Who were never smell like masks requirements are sort of like either supporting them or at least letting cities do though I think when you see you like. We see masks requirements we see a big push social distancing we ECB Donald Trump may Wear a mask you know will you see. Schools not open in some places I think yes those questions are yes but we had that kind of every store is closed again thing I doubt maybe I'm wrong I'd. You know me you remind I mean you said something. So basic yet so such a good reminder from its beginning which was locked down word actually is posted the this I'm urgency. Measure that was only supposed to happen per couple of months. I meet in the ideal world. What would we be tuning in you know July would it be. OK you'd better be wearing all your masks inside and you have balls aren't opener I mean like I'm kind of curious what what is. I deal. I mean I think real Fiorina as we go along. I'm. You know I think it's worth noting that like there are not very many countries anywhere in the world. Where there are still unlocked. There are countries were they managed to find like in Asia and parts of Europe some other ways to solve it there are countries where they've given up I think people don't realize like. Basically. A large number of south American countries. You know India Bratton Russian. South Africa. Pakistan. Are all countries where Mexico. Where cases are rising. And relaxing and lockouts are being relaxed right. So it's not just the US like people seemed at Hewlett tolerate this effort but at much longer. But I do you think like. Com. Part of the problem is there's not like. Mower creative solutions like one thing that could really help I think personally. In Texas Arizona Florida Witten. Would be a strict. Three to four week lockdown right. Three to four weeks we go back to phase one we'd really FE zero rate we really ask you older respect this and also not violated by. By a socializing on your own which is a big problem right concludes. Restaurants can go to one of those homes eat dinner. You know that might help in the original imperial college paper. Back in March Paris and who should have rolling periods Rego between lock downs and open until we get a vaccine often on you know you. I know right. But like. But I think so that you partly disagree that like so Florida and Arizona and Texas have shown some willingness to close some things. We're cases are spiking rate at bars and in our cars and things like yet. I have always thought and implicitly people turning to manage assisted. Lacked oh. If you have a plateau. Than. Then you don't get a scary headlines kind of becomes maybe after some period time background noise and so. I mean look that's what I think. If he had to kind of predict what would happen I think. That's what will happen is that people kind of try to calibrate around it plateau in plateau is still pretty bad if a lot of people. Like in Florida. You know something like 60000 people who have it last week officially however probably capturing some neighbors. One in five in case you might say one in ten to be a little bit better job probably 300000 people in Florida who got voted last week. Over a month that's. That's what is a government that's like. A million point seems immigrant I mean so it's going. Older population really fast. Are so of course we will see. What ends up happening. As we've been tracked him for the past month but let's move on and talk about. The role that conversations about race playing in the twentieth election compared with 2060. In the week of the 2016 election there was some debate within the Democratic Party about the degree to which Hillary Clinton talked about breeze minorities and quorum identity politics. Many said that she should talk more about the economy. Meanwhile it appeared that trumps appeals to a wide identity work to get across the finish line. So bulls of those experiences suggested that me be Democrats o'clock last about the issues. But if that was the pros 2016 wisdom for some Biden isn't really he's talking planning about race and so far seems doing fine. And Terri you recently wrote about this for. The web site in an article called how Biden is winning an identity politics election so far so encourage people to protect that out. Justice are not Perry how would you describe the post 2016 conversation within the Democratic Party. There was one group of people. Often white. Who's. The Democrats are talking race too much there was varies. Famous piece in the New York Times Magid that are. In the New York Times I guess albeit in that identity liberalism. They went from pretty viral the time and that is a GO as the Hillary talked about individual groups too much and didn't talk about a collective identity enough and that was like a big shortcoming for her. There was other Kent group of people many whom were black who's sort of like getting some help -- beings and of one or more probable and some sort of broad approach sort of argued that. The real thing was not Hillary talked about race too much with the trump talked about race really well. And he sort of like dumb. Appeal to white and in the in a particular way those things are not easily contradictory by the way but you had a lot of people I think Tom Vilsack Bernie Sanders. Were quoted I think Bernie Sanders sets on the app does what he sees sixteen like. We can't just go around saying I'm a woman both for me I don't actually think Hillary said anything like that night thought the comment was kind of annoying. But I think that's ten it was a recapturing it like with the Democratic Party. Levy too much and he's I didn't the issue so that's kind of reverberated the last two or three years and we can discuss like. And I think it's hard to sort of major. How much Hillary talking identity how much as by anti nudity hammers to trump and so once all of a complicated subject. But I think. If you think this and of the law and order like Clare road a piece a few weeks ago there was sort of raising this question of you know now that we're in this of the law and order discussion. Post protests will that help trop. In the answer according to data is no book when the shores boy protest started trump was down to Biden by six. Trump is now down by ten. A lot of things have happened Kobe being the most important but I do think it's fairly clear that you know the confederate monuments. Confederate defense of the it'd been in the flag the sort of what's trump is due weeding. On racial issues right now is not working I think that's fairly clear we can talk about why that might be but that's what I was me was gonna get at is that we're having election. Where is like recently I consider that a center of things. And trump is not doing well right now. Yeah I think suggesting at almost 2016. Discussion is backed. Abroad take away for most people it it was. There where is too much identity politics of the Democratic Party. Really what people were talking about was like this specific appeal to people in certain states rates thieves like swing. Demographics in swing states these Obama voters he's white Obama voters that the Democrats lost. And what appealed to them what didn't appeal to them frankly like that's the entire debate kind of counting. And like Bernie Sanders at a sank to talk about economics he witnessed people a lot of it had to do with like people. Voted against Clinton right that was obviously huge acting election but I do think a lot of the conversation after 26 team was was like. Democrat the democratic congress he was couldn't walk and chew gum at the same time that it was sort of like what we got appeal to appease white voters that law. And I think Biden. Is in an easier position as a as a white man in part is his own identity politics rates he can talk about race. In a wave that. Oh. I think would be bored devices that came from say comma Harris as a Democrat and he. That people would say she's being device about rates rather than being. Countrywide. I do think that. The message matters obviously. But the messenger matters as well. So I think there are under two pieces to this question riches won it. Did trumps. I. Appeals to wide identity work in 2016. And are those inexact appeals are very similar ones just not working in 220 and then the other half of the question is. You know. Did Hillary Clinton's up heels to. Liberal identities are minorities. The gay community black martyrs like you know barter native American artists are we remember opera stump speech Hubert. Go through the particular identities and in the Democratic Party that she was speaking to you. Bob vs how Biden talks about identity is that different is more successful so maybe let's key in on rob for a minute. Is it fair to say that his appeals to white identity. Worked. Eden 2016. To get across the finish line. Yeah he's part of it. He clearly gaining ground among. So called white working class voters. And those voters were pretty decisive in the midwest. You know it's complicated though right. I do kind of wonder because of this experience. With Biden him. Kind of senators. Takes a lot of the official democratic. Establish a party line and stuff. Not the super woke wing of the party but you know probably says things that are pretty similar to Hillary Clinton on balance right maybe schism. If anything a bit more awkwardly as is Joseph Biden. In seems to elicit a very different reaction I mean I don't know I kind of wonder if maybe we'll look back on the selection in. The twists and election in twenty years and say you know let. Between voters just not being ready for women president and that particular. Way that Hillary Clinton was kind and demonized for many years and her own shortcomings right. That maybe it was just kind of killer. I floats. I floats something. I. In 2060. If you want to put a finer point on it. Trump obviously it. You know ran on. Some racist campaign attack lines and policies. But often B workers against foreign nationals right so. It was against it was about closing the border in it was about immigration. And in 2016. His response has largely Sar in 20/20. His response. Add to these protests has been. Very much about. Pointing the finger act. Black Americans. Or allies of it's. A black protesters and saying. These people are causing America to descended to chaos. And that that is like mortar that black people vs white people dynamic that trump is playing on. Is Mort. Traditionally. Processed by Americans as racist right where isn't my sixteen could be a lot this immigration hardliner. But trumpet 22 when he is more explicitly playing at you like. Longtime. American. Races women and dynamics and that its meat eat like. A touch different for people particular white voters to. We're may be inclined to give trying to attract a chance to 20/20 but the c.'s response say yeah takes place. That feels kind of racist in the lately I process what Reese's means to make sense. Are excited skirt that's fairly adamantly but police say it leaves so. I don't think trump was the code was not too hard to figure out in 2016. But in death said I do think. People recognize the code more yes I think this you know in some ways he played some like I don't have a clip of things he said that black recognizes being against black people but rather wanted to visit me. But that said acting bit. Island but the piece that I wrote credit unit backed IP. The media covers how he talks about race much more much differently in uses terms like racist and racism and so on but it did use. Corporate America is Sheila is like doing this differently like when when you're seeing companies like say a black lives matter and so on. Dell is not happening in twenty sixteens on some level is not just trot vs Biden or the Democrats vs Republicans it's like. It's like the elites the military like one of the million other hidden on the head of the joint chiefs was saying. I want the confederate monuments to be renamed the competitive basis to be renamed so strong is fighting corporate America. The media you lead America and the Democrats on his racial views and I think that makes it much harder to. Win that fight in a few years ago I was like much more sort of there's a liberal view an as a conservative you now it feels like trump is an isolated position. And I also think. People's views on racial issues I would argue that change I don't think these polls saying. I think they may be overstated but I do think the evidence to people like black labs matter more the evidence that they see racism more. I think trump is facing much harder aliens than before on his racial views. I think it's a point Perry and like you know I should say this is not that tendency. Eight is that where. Racist and sixteen out black Americans. But here's a question like and I think you make that point which is at the environment has changed I think probably more. A broader swath of Americans. More tuned into the topless like this since yet we definitely and that's just Annie you and I have had. Off podcast discussions about like the way the media. Talks about lake race racism actually this weekend I. I listened to long form podcasted youth team McCain temperature and EI's list too but he talks a little. I k.'s editor of the New York Times for anybody doesn't that are. Yes Eric but he does kind of acknowledge this evolution of the New York Times and the way that they have. Talked about trump and connected to that was a little bit and this is exactly your art out like he talked a little bit about like the readership model now the times relies on right that like. The New York Times is steep surge of readership and like there is a certain amount of being public feedback that is like. Yes good thank you for calling him. Racist and exit from the matter but hopefully get what it but it was interesting to hear. What you just articulated. I want to minutes of the inmates he's been writing about he wrote about earlier on which is. Red cent of all time which is that. We may have over a donut you know Steve predate that we may have over writ 26 you know little niche trump won this weird election. Where the FBI director announces he's investigating one of the Canada's today's for the election. The map is kind of weird it's hard to win the electoral college and lose the popular vote. Hillary was very unpopular candidate for a lot of reasons the head of the do how such a race. And so some ways. When they get credit mention in the article as we part of it Wii is Wii is that people always takes a lot of lessons from the last campaign. But it the last campaign is we really weird and kind of fluke he. Maybe part of it is like we shouldn't take any lessons from that at all it's one day in November Donald Trump be Hillary Clinton. Yeah and you had your at a commie letter you have the electoral college and other stuff and you know by people like I hadn't thought about us as much in the context of media coverage. Yen Crowley one thing that's changed since I got. Into journalism my guess is it used to be acting. Journalists were afraid. Expressing positions it seem like they were too liberal because the stereotype but some validity by the way in the research of like. Journals are being a liberal field right now it's kind of like yours now pressure from the left. Where journalists made fuse to pressure they say things at the thinker to centrist or too right wing certainly. And so maybe there are beef view. Swing voters. Are kind of in that kind of broad mainstream media tent. And the fact that now it's like you can't I mean so number one. Trump is not very good at standing keeping the quiet part Clyde Wright he's not very subtle. Om and if you ask people a majority of voters actually say in the hospitals they think trump. Is a racist. Which considering that most people don't like. To call people racist and it kind of think that deep down it's kind of amazing that a majority of voters are going to see the president. Is it racist before these whole he still protest by the way right this is the year ago or something and so. So yeah kind of something about like. The fact that like. Everything else is kind of going. Badly in the country just kind of makes it mower. Naked I don't know right. We'll but not one question I out here is are we. Saying that people have evolved that voters have changed their used. That the media has the column more railing to call a spade a spade in the case of Trump's remarks. But that what's really happening is that he's completely botched corona virus and blight. People just don't like him because things are going poorly in the country and so now don't care if it's criticizing him for rotavirus criticizing him for partly deals with race they're just more aren't recruit. I think all these things can be true once and I think that there are incidents trying to read out which one. I think trump is was regard as an ineffective president before this and now he's more and poplar so everything trump does unpopular. I would argue that Biden to hit by ten points maybe Kabul is ahead by Iverson you know there's a there's a taste of tropics is unpopular and abet president people don't know. I do think there's a case did you leaked users safety people in movie people like the media like corporations. I do think there's a case that views themselves are changing and I think those three things are probably reinforcing each other. And so it'll be hard pressed a T I gotta I edit email. I'm after my story from this pastor who lives in and southeast Pennsylvania he'll veto me to give his name that he says. He's a centrist person. Who doesn't like trump but as vote Republican before he says tiger multiple people who supports from temple of Republicans. And he's been nervous to sort of Everest a native might be perceived as negative about trop police generally change for him was. Once NASCAR. They and the confederate flag and was the NFL. And it is our depending kneeling. And wants other things that happens. In our politics these last six weeks has been easier for him to sort of speak about racial equality. Any issues that he was sort of nervous about before and in their torsos and so in some ways you have. This pastor sees what's happening in the outside culture brings it into the church and maybe that might change verse in the church's views to do so again. All these things as a swimming in the same. Pool I do think a big part of the pool though is Joseph Biden. Is hard to sort of gas is mister welk. Because he's holes because he's moderate because he's white. Because he's now Barack Obama because he's not Hillary Clinton. Because he's you know it's just like the world is changed and I do think part of where he's a hard target to hit is symbolizing. How America is changing too much. Yeah I'd that is kind of the other part of the equation Tom debt I wanted to Kiet on. Which is wool one yes. In terms of I don't own identity it this is is very different Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But what about the way that he talks about these issues is it different. Or or is it roughly the same to Obama and Clinton or is it more aware. The challenges faced a racial aspect. Sexual identity minorities in America. Biden talks about. So I think it's inching up Biden is like he does is. Feel. Comparable. In I'd be like black establishment. Communities and groups like he feels very confident in the time that he's invested with those groups. He feels confident in his status with older black voters in particular. Keep. Leno he was Barack Obama's vice president right like all that stuff. And so but like but he obviously talks differently about race and Obama because not a black man. But he does sometimes have that's like presumptive wave. Up talking about race that I think to younger Americans in general black and white comes off as kind of like cream GE. But to. Middle aged older people they're it is kinda like yet so everybody is older talks it's fine right click it's not. And I think that that in some ways. The truck factor for many people who. Perhaps voted for different candidates in the democratic primary supersedes. That Biden eases. Yeah a bit. Presumptive sometimes overly presumptive right ankle accidentally Charlemagne the god interview he sent blows the quote. If you vote for trump Ewing black and eat that stuff makes people cringe. But on the other hand. No wins in danger like. Saying Joseph Biden it is and the like. A racially radicals. Candidate who alienate white America by running them in reparations only platform I don't know attempts tentatively. Eggs without air. So as a white person. I think. There are a lot of white people especially by people on the center of the laughed. Who. Would love to say I think racism is a problem and it's. About time the country thought more about it but I don't want to feel challenged or aren't comfortable. More than I'm ready for. In my personal. Views right and they may be something. About the way about Biden's kind of awkwardness in just his age right he's kind of night using. Intersection now earlier terms like that right people are alike. This is addressing racism on terms that I is a white person. Maybe an older Hispanic a black person to write I don't know but but. Don't feel confronted by. Because there is some evidence that win kind if you use language that is more modern or whatever. And more challenging. But actually can. Persuade people to the left on the issue itself but could also create. Negative feelings toward that politician. For making them uncomfortable. And maybe Biden doesn't do that as much. To be specific I think there's two things are going to say was that Biden is not given the comment lights. What did I think Obama's at something in the effect of certain people fleeing to their guns in their religion in which she's which has sort of approach interpreted and probably didn't mean sort of white rural people. Clinton had that famous deplorable comment Biden is so Biden is not me me comments like that. He has made comments he uses the term systemic racism he has talked about you know white America needs to recognize its you know its advantage in some ways he's not used the term white privilege so he's used terms like that he's talked about race in a sort of a broader context in a similar way. But he hasn't used sort of he's brought things so he's been more careful. And it also. People hear what you say differently depending on who you are and I think Barack Obama we sent someone should not be arrested at their house was not saying here radical thing but it was sort of heard a different way I think because he's black so I think that those of up actors well. I would say though in the bite in a while not speaking identity. I promised Barack Obama will never would could not have promised to name a black woman of Supreme Court and a woman as the democratic nominee upper price presidential Biden has made he's too explicit. Promises. On race on identity a woman DP a black female Supreme Court justice. Connecting no woman or minority candidate CN made. And I would argue if we're saying. There can be more no more identity politics and specifically. Naming jobs Brazilians are in race or gender and race basis. Yeah I hadn't thought about that right I advocate here told me at least at the start of the campaign Biden. Whitney those promises I would have thought and their power politics. About them from. Conservatives. And hasn't centrist yet yet. So are we taking this to mean that bite in. Has gone beyond where Obama or Clinton ever went in certain arrests facts. But in other respects like the way he speaks is calms. Appears more moderate quote unquote on identity but that it has a lot to do with his own right. The parties are wrapping up yet the parties got her liberal despite Knisley separate he liked establishment liberal he's gone with the parties that he's gonna like. You know if he's engaging with like police reforms. That's further than Obama or Clinton went I mean Obama certainly I think Clinton had. Engaged on police reform patsy in that same way. A lot of people got very angry our work frustrated with his response to Ferguson. In particular rates only acting I can kind. See things more explicitly. That certain it certainly Obama in this particular moment. So the question is in some ways. Is the difference. Between twenties was it was in 26 unions when he twenty. And I don't think K yeah I think it's a really hard question but I think I just come back the difference being. Trump is the president now he's not a candidate it's not theoretical and he has been somewhat bad at being the president. And that might be the sort of driving factor particularly in terms of and that we -- that the corona virus has any particular effect on. Black and Hispanic people a disproportionate effects of that also is playing a role in the sense that. If the question is you know tiny had a quote famous quote about George Bush not caring about black people. But I am sure we poll people and ask them do you date Donald Trump cares about black people that number would not be very high so I think that gives to the question of like it's hard it is entangle. This discussion about politics from the particular particular Ares of trump and his unpopularity. And a all right well but that's it for NASA thank you name. Thank you Galen. Date declaring inks. And thank you parents thanks you. And before ego I wanted to give a shout out to 530 its corona virus podcast. It's called pod cast nineteen. Last week and a Rothschild the host spoke with Anthony Archie about the state of the pandemic in America. And he was pretty blunt Sarah Anchorage ever going to go check out that interview where ever they get their podcasts again. That's pod cast dashed nineteen. Wherever you get your pod cast my name is due winter Tony child is in the virtual control room. You can get in touch emailing us at podcasts. If you're a fan of the show beavis or reading or review in the apple podcast or or tell someone about us based on listening and we'll see. Nor. Yeah.
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