FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The media is getting ahead of itself on Kenosha

The crew looks at whether there is evidence that urban unrest will harm Biden's chances in the 2020 election.
53:10 | 08/31/20

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The media is getting ahead of itself on Kenosha
Hello and welcome to the 530 politics pod cast I'm dealing through the conventions are behind us and Aaron around nine weeks until Election Day. So it's crunch time for the campaigns we've got plenty to discuss today. First off we usually expect candidates to receive a bounce in the polls after their conventions so has that been the case this time around. Also there's been plenty of speculation in the media that unrest in places like Kenosha and Portland could reshape the presidential race and hurt buyer. So we're gonna look at what the evidence says so far. And finally there's a high profile democratic primary in Massachusetts on Tuesday where congressman Joseph Kennedy is challenging senator Ed Markey for his seat. In Ed Markey is 47 your political career he's never lost an election but also no Kennedy has ever lost an election in Massachusetts. So accurate meet to discuss all of that our editor in chief meets overhanging. Everybody. Also your parents is seen products under Clinton on declare he. And senior politics writer Perry bacon junior nick Perry in his you know Tennessee it's here so let's dive right into the convention bounces. And he does it appear that the conventions both of them the democratic and Republican have they affected it. The race at all so far as we can tell at this point. I it's not that easy to tell something bombs are taking them when it time. With Biden's convention. In general the polling did not seem to show much apparent that he went from like plus eight point foreigner polling average select plus nine point something right. So maybe half a point or point. But we didn't have a ton of polling conducted. In between the DNC in the RNC. All the polling we did have was on line pulling a robocalls spinning no kind of white collar polls. Which is important because like color alternate show bigger swings we can get into the reasons for that or not but like. Jessica like when you see like a big traditional connection bounced from the Gallup poll are CNN poll alive color I'm Paul and Alec an online panel Saturday. But Biden didn't seem to get much. Now did trump get a bounce there's a little bit more evidence for that so for example. Morning consult. Kind of torn canceled her morning consult or whatever right. But Clinton replied you suck and podcasts. Well you know you you play the greatest hits and podcasts morning counsel to morning consult I don't know. Everybody but like that organization as well as Uga of put out polls that seem to showed current gating like a three point downs roughly. Their other polls you know terrorists acts didn't show will bounce. The LA times poll has not gonna bounce so far. There were some weird Zogby poll that I think did shoot bounce and so it's like it's a little ambiguous state the ever insofar seems to be that like. Propel himself a little bit. But not for sure it may wind up being a lot or not at all want to get better polling in. He did not seem to help himself so much in terms of like favorability right so you look at like. Favorable numbers for how do you feel about Joseph Biden or Donald Trump it looks like. Biden's cutting improved a little bit and Trump's did not and so if you're the theory that like. Hey what's going to be durable. Verses transient these conventions that Biden soft news image a little bit. And prompted not help it is. But basically you know we haven't had a bad publicity mr. probably will have had. A high quality light color Poehler to end their fort to be honest. They'll probably become a discussion and we'll some assume whatever else we've been talking about right. And the commander commits that was a bit like. As we take this and limb 45 AM on a Monday. We don't have that much polian we differ applicant vacuum. Evidence into which like polls. Bad politics flow in you know like pundits who haven't heard from since like 2011 are like. Are common in the vacuum giving you their hot takes about Kenosha and shy trump voters' right it's all complete bull. Doesn't mean we know what's happening just like there is like very little evidence right now in a lot of speculation. All right so with that. Let's move on and talk about the unrest in Kenosha and Portland because a lot of the analysis has. Centered around that more than maybe you and conventions. Conflict between the black lives matter protests and trump supporters became violent over the past week and I'm just gonna run through a bit of a timeline of events. So early last week Kenosha police shot Jacob quake a black man repeatedly in the back which recorded on video. Protesters responded many peacefully and some by destroying cars and buildings and throwing fireworks Applebee's. Later in the week a seventeen year old from Illinois was arrested and charged with several crimes including intentional homicide. After he appear to shoot and kill to prove protesters in injure another. His voters are being investigated but reporting so far shows that he idolize please attended a truck rally. And was part of a FaceBook group planned to go to Kenosha with firearms to protect property. The unrest has since subsided in Kenosha. In Portland there have been nightly protests since the killing of George Floyd with some turning destructive watching fireworks and throwing objects at police near it and courthouse. On Saturday night a group of apparent trump supporters drove through downtown Portland fire and paint ball guns and pepper spray at protesters. Around 9 PM gunfire erupted and one man was killed. The man's identity hasn't been released at this point at 11:45. On Monday morning. But according to reports he was wearing a patriot prayer app which is a far right group in beat Portland area. No information has been released about his assailant and reading for more reporting and any costs. So those are some of the key tea tails and over the past week Republicans featured on rest in cities as a prominent part of their pets during their convention. And some in the media have speculated that these protests and clashes could score Biden standing in the race. So I want to discuss what we know and what we don't know about how the public is reacting. And carry you wrote a piece looking at how the public house reacted to the black flies matters protest. So far. Of course we don't have data you know following the unrest in Kenosha and port went to a large extent because this just happened. But what do we know about the public response to the black flies matter protests up until this point and whether or not it is reshaping race. So we've seen in the polls like round late may early June after George Floyd skilling and the purpose and that was. Support from black lives mattered in about 10% Parra meeting like more Americans supported black lives better than oppose it is that gaffe about him. During the time in like around June 6 at those numbers shifted a lot re at some point. 56%. Of people supported the black last man who according to civics polling. And only about 28%. Are up 30%. Disapprove of the black leather to get a peak yet big increase in support like plant matter yes and units and a decrease in opposition to it. But over the last couple months those numbers of combat. Two we're now lack lives matters. Near approval as a belt where was before George Floyd this around so it's like plots here. Much so as lower than plus one here plus when he in the middle in the early she. So blast last night of support has been down. And meal which you see in the polling is that Republican opposition to black was matter as we when he but that's not surprising because. Republicans are attacking what was matter more and also blacklist matters as what you might the year's most politically. We've all seen among independents black labs matters get more unpopular as well there could be some. In the visible Republican increase of more centrist agrees that went for. Clinton are ordered by the incidents we've seen that seniors will in general among white Democrats lacked last matters support is still missing. And then overall. From the start of the protests and early June until now Joseph Biden around the storm approaches there by six. In a court the most recent are wholly every right knee out Joseph Biden as it might be so there is now. Being up to now the protest the recount George Floyd at least did not seem even though even though they get more aggressive and more unpopular with the public. They did not hurt. Vice president Biden's campaign this is like voters. Separate those two things and who will now have to see what's happened these last ten days that this changes the polls but. One other note on this August 17 where the convention start. Our polling average had Biden and by eight point four. It now has violated by eight point one so up to now at least we haven't seen much evidence of a shift in the race but again. But the polls so oppose RNC post connection we have very little polling data and I'll. So. Why has there been speculation among some in the media. That there will be negative consequences for abide and and Democrats. In the election and clarity if you want to weigh in on I know it's speculation about speculation but. From what we can understand by it read in reports. Where is this idea comic. I mean I'm not sure. And one reason why I'm not sure is kind of based on what Perry said earlier which is that when we had. Kind of a similar. Period in June early June where. We're. Number one like now in early June the corona virus number targeting better. And the new did have looting and violence in some cities including New York I'm in early June and kind of truck. Came out and held his Bible from Lafayette square in like that actually associated with trump like. Declining in the polls and Biden opening up what today is kind of his biggest lead. You know it's so it's a little bit. Unclear I think there are few things to think about them. One is that people may be kind it. Mistaking. A convention bounce that we talked about before for having you do with commission and Portland. We are in general you expect to mention doubts torture as sure what to expect because of the virtual commit to this time right. But if trump goes from like. Minus nine to minus six or minus seven right that's actually like. It's not clear that's good for him because you might expect a bigger balance like our model public it is fairly neutral. But. But if you want to we've been aired live around some semblance of data then you can say oh this proves that Kenosha whatever is having an effect right. Your reaction to the Republican Convention was all about. Essentially. Dismissed a couple days chaos in urban areas right. And now you know in reporting after the fact McNabb found out that some of these people who were featured in the RNC videos particularly of people in new York public housing. They didn't know that they are going to be part of eighty. Promotional video for the president at the currencies so some of the programming that that was involved in the RNC that that it painted. Cities and frankly it like the residents in them black and brown has beaten the victims. You know crime waves over the summer yet this year crimes that happens it's hard for many cop injuries. When are beginning to hear. But there is this idea that that was the time neared adds that the connections are it was that these protests are actually. A sign of terrible disorder in American cities. All of that is kind of you know. There's lots of historical top missiles in America. So I think what we're seeing happen in as Nate said this. The vacuum this this let weak weak weak period up like a vacuum. Solid information you're seeing people react to the narrative the RNC to the thesis of the currencies of the pieces of the RNC was. These protests are terrible they're terrible for America where time Joseph Biden to these protests. Therefore the media are yet capable say well Joseph Biden's numbers go down. Nothing it's really interesting is that lots of reasons Joseph Biden has knots that many immediate kinetic divide and had been out. Marching in o'clock last matter. Protest right some of that is I think he's. An older Man Ray and he doesn't want to endanger himself but also. I have to think that someone and his team is saying. Oh kgo. We're playing this little safe re playing it safe might mean not directly tying yourself to. A protest movement that is like. Controversial to some people I also think it's you know it's as. With this this the stats that Perry said earlier about approval number for the black matter movement going down kind of the further and further. George Floyd at George with the person and the incident gets people's rearview Mir and fortunately it's human nature is that. These movements become. Detached sometimes round the thing that it really eight initially incited the human action so. I mean I think it is cut it neared its filling in for. You know any real and care amounts we have this week. And I think part of what's going minus you know like the general sort of conventional view of American politics is it. Republicans want to sixty elected in particular and maybe that one's a 72 ED so running on. Law and order tough on crime may be anti black people's access others dimensional view him. Those elections maybe and they elects me lectures. It's about sort of of racial life species that helps the Republicans in the majority white country and the Republicans are better at an election. Into Dutton sixteen maybe they won the countless as well I think there's a lot of recent history. That I think maybe it's like over interpreted a bit but still history to suggest that may be is that. If it's probably good for trumpet the question is like our cities having too much violence as opposed to. Easy handling the corona virus well ordered shorts Floyd does deserve to die. So in this and not steamy subject shift the subject been talking up like most last month that its ask drop. So this subject I would argue might be sort of closer to neutral for trop so I think that that's like worth considering. As well and I do think. The electorate is not the same as 1968. But I might submit that some of our. Or even 1988 that I might submit that some of our on this her older are. Stuck in that electors change is much different her occupation in terms of nonwhite voters like do you think some of these. Some of the pundits and are are also seeing light truck I would like tonight note this is you might element of the truth I think they'll opening a longer campaign exactly the same. In 192000. When he of these in 1980 year ninety's yeah. NS at the same when he is the incumbent right receives say okay. The country you know everything is on fire right now and blame the incumbent well doesn't work for trump. And the sense in June again that like know everything take crewman plus. Looting right everything has kind of falling apart I mean it was not a good period in the polls for for trump. I mean I definitely agree Terry that like. The media is kind of buying. Trumps. Framing on this. And I agree clear that like. People may have been primed by the convention right you get kind of four days of that it. Relatively well crafted version of the GOP message as compared to trim. Impromptu. And it kind of punch people for thinking and and I'd also like. You know it's also be on a straight there is. Very little professional. Disincentive. And psychological disincentive to say I'll behave like troops got a pretty good shot here you know and I mean like that'll make you seem why he's in light. You know if he wins and you look Smart if you lose you say well we did say let's toss up right so not too surprising. So like you know there's no incentive to be the person who goes out there and says. Oh yeah Joseph Biden's got this right which I think is also not accurate I think it is clearly uncertain. Well also we talked about this on the pot house before that in the grass. Yeah there may be laughed diocese but there's also a bias towards covering a campaign that feels competitive. Because that will get people more interest data in the race and so it to the extent that you can they well it was a terrible summer for trumpet. Things seem to be turning a corner because of the unrest in American cities. From a narrative perspective from like literally narrative has and the story that Americans follow through the news. You know that seems like a more compelling story than just OK well the race has been pretty stagnant and it still seems somewhat stagnant plaza convention bounce to summit. Yet it's boring to say how it was eight point two to nine and out seven right. You know that's not very exciting you'll see what happens on Election Day rats are very exciting cycle electorate that Alon. It's a question like the Biden people I talked him despite its debt has also always did. We don't they ruined by ten points the race is gonna get close site some of those holes and it was. There was a poll this summer killing Biden hit by fifteen I sort of was leading and of those time. And so I do you think like. Strong I always assume was getting hit between 42 in 46%. Heart really people over the hardly get probably hard to get above that maybe I'm wrong but. So in some ways like. I think there were others some some tightening happening may have less to do with you Vince that are happening in more active you would like. 46% of people voted for trump in 2016. I assume a lot of them will he end up. Coming back to trumpet hands of that. In some I suspect some what you're seeing in the polls undecided people who voted to draw. Me into coming back to him vs and I think that's sort of like it gives me heart or he's out is this based on events is this based on China's years based on sort of like. Worst of most of the natural hat of the electorate is gonna go it was heartening to see Biden winning. He's teaching at thirty yet polls saying in part in like in June. Yeah pair you mentioned previously. The sixties and seventies a little bit in terms of relying on historical president to understand our heart arms and during the past several months during the protest. We've seen this an academic research cited multiple times essentially. Suggesting. That peaceful pro tasks particularly peaceful protests that. C a you know. Violent response from police. Historically in the 1968 election actually increase democratic voter share and surrounding counties while violent protests. Actually increased Republican net share of the vote in surrounding counties and dozens research from Omar wants. So. When we bought it back I mean to what extent should we use that as a template for understanding the current times verse says you know the country has changed our. And you know. In 1968 the incumbent was a Democrat. Com. As part of the equation. I'm leery of that for two reasons one because the demographic changes in the country the changes in racial attitudes in the camps I don't know Howell. Like 1968. Was a long time ago I don't know they would say that. I guess the second thing I might say is part of the issue is I think it's to disentangle. Who exactly is attacking who in which protests or violence like literally I'm having trouble figure out exactly what happened in Portland right now and and we have to we have like you know very different media narratives about it up and we have. Very barricaded media itself so Peter you know. Like I think trump is gonna try to sift I think that it did this entangling. Who is inciting who. And then figuring out which voters believe we've been sightings who is going to be acting fairly challenging. To determine I think it's been hard to say this is a violent protests from the black lab better people vs. This is a violent protest people from the anti black leather people vs this is about it and by the police I think it's going to be fairly hard to disentangle in the next few. What's so interesting and we are talking. Period the key senators that a lot of the parameters that are. You know people who are older adding that chalk in palaces seems to be c.'s acting from an older persons playbook in the sense of I was struck at the convention by all of the talk about suburbs which really seem to dislike. Go back to these 1960. Battles over. Federal housing and like. That George Romney vs Richard Nixon like integration of the suburbs and there is this idea going actually. Howell you know. Does the have a suburban housewives of America to use the trapped freezing. How those people feel about the black lacks matter movement like maybe those white suburban housewives are getting slightly more tepid about the movement. But on the other hand. They probably know black people who live in their suckers out right it's not this like totally. For inspector that it was in in the night the late 1960s some places around the country. Which is why some of the this strategy seemed so odd you know you had that Saint Louis couple talking about. They wanted to story that suburbs an oath. Talking it mean it's essentially leading select section eight vouchers and like letting like letting the the other into the suburbs it's just sort of theory. It's it doesn't plan that them ward new ones to waive that people. I mean but this might. Talk about race or talk about. You know I think a lot of talk about like how they want to keep their duty at the same whatever that means you know a lot of that by Pakistan. Schools. And bus agents like that those those debates are still alive in America. But there's less kind of the housing talk that the term campaign was using. It was very. Retro. In this way that I wonder if it fit that if that mindset continue to hurt them in the next three months. Will. Here's the other point that. Are you brought up at the beginning but I wanted to kind of guidance here which is that yes support from a clockwise matter movement has decreased and polling also shows that. Americans increasingly say that they see the protests as. Mostly violent as opposed to mostly peaceful so there's still a plurality that same mostly peaceful but the number peoples and mostly violence has been. Increasing. At the same time we haven't seen that result in you know worse had at polling. For I'd write and Europe he sat in statements over the weekend and also he's expected to give a speech around Pittsburgh today. On on the violence and basically denouncing it on all sides etc. and challenging president trump to do the same he also had a kind of Twitter storm over the weekend president trump that is in which he seemed to. Give some support to you. His supporters were going into port land. Even some support for the seventeen year old. Apparent vigilante in Kenosha so how does the response from. The president and the democratic nominees kind of shape what happens going forward and what else should we know about how they're responding. Licenses from campaign. Smartly seized the opportunity here we just you. They're trying to do Biden into. You must can view in the protest you must condemned the looting. I think their they're trying my guess is trying to get invited to attack the protests in no way in which he attacks also in the black last matter movement. Which will you're it's eight. He part of his parts I think trump is smartly trying to get Biden team elected to light comes too far. Come so far on the site like the violence the protests to violent. Your eight you know the sort of younger and Morgan black people or regret the streets who don't elect Biden first place where Democrats is that created intra party that seems Smart and actually because. Part of what trump is trying to do there. I think you had eight Democratic Party it is somewhat divided where. Like the giant basic Republicans. Are not super excited to be voting with the yield on Omar radio secret and so I think they would like Joseph invited to him dune. Certain leftist whenever they could like you I thought we can there was an hurts for some are by and have a sister soldier moment I think there's some errors on in the sort of Biden. Coalition you have Biden attack. Somebody on the left shown obstinacy is because they like yeah. So I think there is some so I think there is the tension here in terms of what by the bite isn't a place where it is look at a lot of lot of the law hard choices are to be made in this sort of like. How exactly you precisely can given the protesters condemned the violent protesters but not. And you can give rioting without condemning the peaceful protest this is not an easy is. Line to draw so I think it I think there is on the we curiously what binds. The next few days and I think you she's more complicated because some of the protests are happening in Portland which isn't in the popular imagination. Is a coincidence only white city. But some readers he no utility Portland has more diversity executives. But Kenosha is definitely reach allies conflict and so I do think that strong deterrent but trump trying to you know there tomorrow we think acting. I do think like a country like I think that the country and its majority light. Strong act. She's our does have some sense of what sensibilities are routing issues and I think it's is a tricky issue for Biden's. Seem appropriately well without being too well for like in other words. It's almost I I've started to think about. Biden knitting together that is case it Republicans with like squad fanatics as kind of sometimes you watch those like TV entertainment channels in the beginning he's red carpet interviews. And it's just a study it how to give a soft balling you write like. It's it's if you think of Biden is like the celebrity being interviewed on the red carpet. And the two camps the case that Republicans and that like more liberal parts of the Democratic Party. They don't want to ask him any hard questions right that will bring up an answer that they don't wanna hear that they know will make some people angry and so like. That whole side of the election if speculate that that's might that Biden's convention was all about what a nice guy he is what makes man to tightness. See you're seeing aberrant kind of tiptoe around that and truck is doing is in which she did 2016 which was this switches this tactic of we're not trying to win you over or trying to like. Depress your enthusiasm. About Joseph Biden so light truck wants to ask the hard questions though like Frick ballot questions which people are asking about Biden. In the primary about his record on race it like is he too. Clumsy and not involved on race the problem that is like if you poke too hard at. A lot of us you know what older white Democrats records you you find problems with rates are things that don't hold up in 20/20. But it is an interesting dynamic and trumpets we know when quality half as it's that he will always go there. I find it. A little bizarre or that we've kind of had. The news cycle about like. Was Joseph Biden announcing the protest loudly enough because Joseph Biden is never liked. Renouncing the violence out in Africa is to buyers like never. Promoted. Violence which president trump ardently has seen a president trump is the president Joseph Biden is not. I mean it's kind of I think a little bit of but her emails moment in some ways. At least the case of Clinton you have like some. Degree of wrongdoing in a became a giant paying belt like if one. Other candidates number one as president. And number two right you have. Like literally these kind of caravans of like trump cars and bands people with drug paraphernalia driving from rural organ into Portland. It results. In somebody. Being killed on some and who I think was on the cup side so to speak right. Like it's not great to have these kind of violent confrontations in the streets. But trump kind of retreated. Video of that from bands coming in and seems to be in his advice have said like actually we think. If these things get violent or terribly good for us politically you know. So thick and neediest and this up pretty badly right. So obviously well. I'll share actually from Thailand Conrad on fox and yet she sad the more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence rains the better it is for the very clear choice on who's passed on public safety. And law and order. I mean that's dislike of all I mean I don't have a higher unit coming coming to begin with that's a despicable quote and you know I was there is violence and those sides I think there has been. Like from. Sometimes people are using the euphemism protests when they should be referring to violence and sometimes vice Versa if it's a tricky thing to get right kind of editorially. But you have one Canada's official strategy it is is to kind of say yes is. Good for us electorally. If violence knickers. And Joseph Biden saying none of that and like I don't care makes you seem like a partisan to say that like the media's job is to make that. Clear to people that like you know if one candidate's. Electoral strategy now is. We hope that you ignore of the pandemic that has killed a 180000 Americans. Because maybe we'll be violence that will be good for me politically even on the incumbent. I mean that's like that's number one an admission of lot of weakness if you wanna be very course Traci about it but number two just kind of disgusting. Has it and with a median about position I will say Catholic. I fine Ames. I don't I've been kind of thinking about this the past couple of weeks have been a little bit like depressed about it because that needed. Hearing people's united Ohio for the past couple weeks and I heard people say it's definitely. In the town of NPR right legally to let you know it's it's two in the tank it's too liberal and you listen to and PR lake. You know especially right now a lot of what they're saying they you have to fact check on the fly you have to accurately describe. Protests. That are valid protest at which sometimes into turning to violence and destruction of property. And there's is host of like these particular 20/20 pitfalls in the course of like reading the five minute. You know morning news that happen. And it does put you in a really difficult position to describe you know I'm sure all of us on the podcast have received things about let you sound too liberal you know eat you sound like. I think it's less and less right now you sound too conservative. In part because you know watching the RNC was a little bit of like it. Divorcing yourself from reality is the pandemic was wasn't really mention that much and when it was mentioned it. There's often mentioned saying untruthful or miss misleading things about it so it does. It does government really tricky spot which again that the child canteen campaign means to do right like it's. It's not that it's not. Smart. I'm sum up all its just that it might be. In more if if you're somehow listen this episode the podcast he had listened to forward like. I don't think we are a podcaster I don't think I personally and someone who is afraid to column. The media for many different types of diocese including liberal bias seasons in context right. But I mean just the whole notion I guess we're kind of falling prey to it like kind of treating Kenosha and Portland is some like kind of horse race strategy question I mean even that's a little bit. Man it's immoral or want it right but we'll take you tell at declares right now like. Part of what trump does is like to trigger this you know. Reaction where the media will. Pearl clutching get up in arms about things and that can give you other things to point toward in terms of bias or whatever else like. But out of various issues in a couple this campaign this is one where I don't think there should be a lot of moral ambiguity. About kind of who is rooting for what. And there is I think unfortunately. I. Most the revolve immediately. You know it and I've ever. In charge would be and certainly you know over the majority so that changed but how. You think in this kind X. Knowing sort of what median norms are I'm service get to another change in base list portrays him. More sure than ever they're not McCain so in this environment. We're you know one candidate semi promoting violence in the other candidate renouncing it. Will become operatives. Chocolates for law and order by Pittsburgh's ability. And I think it is hard tune in I think that's good dynamic exist even if I didn't wishes so. In the and I liked them. You wonder if black people protesting alive it is always a net negative for the democratic or I was surprised. If you'd heard July. Win Biden's numbers stayed. Just like large numbers of black protest. I was surprised by the polling showing people like. And I will pieces in it. I will be watching from strategy the next couple weeks. I kinda think you might work so I'm open to that idea that it will not because of media coverage but just because. Honestly how Americans he restless but it was when I'm only educated them watching carefully to see that. No I think. We I think it's very. A good thing to point out which is like that it was. A lot of people are saying this feels different because it's more of like a multi racial protest but also support. And who knows how long that continues. The thing that I think will be that struck me about this election so far is Howell. Yet the RNC in 2016 there were allotted. Speakers. From families who used to had family members he'd been killed by illegal immigrants right it was like you and we had the whole thing about American carnage at the inauguration. And there is something so that we are seeing the for about like you know Kenosha and the killing of George Floyd these are all about like the worst events in the family's life for the deaths of humanity. And the fact that that's what this election. That that act like political parties are speaking. Election strategies based off of those events. Is. There's something almost like tabloid is robbed raped because those are real and important stories but that prairie it interest. In. It's in spinning ball what like we did Jacob Blake happened Knight and Mike was George Floyd actually like. You know in a fight with a cop who kill them like to see these the tablet the tablet is nation of kind of the way we look at that. The political races is is deeply uncomfortable because like tablets thrive off of what sex and death ease the teased after you know. The obviously feed into bigger issues but there's just something very distasteful about using people's personal tragedies to use an entire. Election strategy off. It's funny I was reading this this essay from India and be fair from 1999. It's called it tabloid decade that's about how. In the ninety's. American society lost all substance and it just became all back tabloid scandals right it was about. You know Bill Clinton at the PV Herman's sex scandal and all this other stuff you know like. And a darkly like the twenty tenants. Are kind of happily Clinton in the different way in the kind of like Mercury sort of way and I just think there's something really. Dark dark about. The way that these campaign they need to try to campaign strategy basically is playing off of these terrible acts. I mean I don't think there's it's this bad start I would say and it. Jordan not content to Yahoo! I would ended. George Floyd Stanley spoke at the DNC. And sort of in and then and sort of refer to police brutality and the RN CU head the head of the New York police union. Endorsing throne and praising him so and basically saying. One party protects law enforcement in the long course and the other does so in some ways like. These issues are very. Partisan knives threaten us I think it's natural in and I think it's unfortunate. But I think this were really are and I and I sort of like an accident. We are adding a much more racial lines election in 2008. Even though two white guys are running. Like the election is censure on these racial issues and to some extent. Like trump is the pro police candidate and Biden is the Perot collapsed and wrong. Police candidate in those and that's a real divide I think in the American elect. For sure that it you better rate Uygur that maybe a better way to save it and thinking it's like. This election even more so than last election feels like it doesn't deal with what we've typically thought of its national issues but it's almost like. Every city. The met if he turned to you know section B of the newspapers the metro section. It's all about the police. And crime and it often has very racial eyes sub tacked straight so it's almost like the national action has become about. Americans. Use time. Communities and crime and policing in this when it feels very vocal and very particular and like. Close to people's hearts about like well this is how much it uses for that matter you know right where were actually talking that they recently affect People's Daily lives. But it does feel so so so sad so very different from annuity talked at the urgency about school vouchers as well. That's the first time I've heard a Republican talk about. Frank Daly and non protest. Horton like. 888 felt like this this anomaly. It's something like you know this substance of old campaigns for the substance of like what national politics used to be out I don't sing like that that we should go back to that. I'm guessing that it feels much more. Visceral and localized. Well in many ways the new cycle has been driven by a man who had his finger on the pulse of the New York top awards for definitely. Content has yes you know for whatever else you can say about trump he certainly has a sense of what drives people's merchants. Brady took out Nat saying that we should. And it that the Central Park five's who obviously later the very themes found to be innocent. Should get the death penalty. But that company newspapers so he's certainly earth with. All. I do you wanna move on and talk about this primary race in Massachusetts tomorrow this is Ben. And an insightful and thought I was is and I appreciate everyone. Iran's contributions. But so let's talk about this marquee Kennedy race Massachusetts congressman Joseph Kennedy has been challenging in Massachusetts senator Ed Markey for to see any high profile democratic primary race that gets decided on Tuesday. Kennedy is 39 and marquis is 74 although Markey is arguably furthers that left that Kennedy but this race is complicated so. Clear kick us off what are the contours. Of Kennedy's primary challenge. To Markey what kinds of messages. Or issues are being debated. I think first thing to know about this race is it's one of those primary races that has become nationalized. Which which get I think is like. It's a trend in general in the past couple of years following the ANC primary but. Markey is the incumbent he is you know Ann Coulter. Whites Massachusetts Democrat who had his. In the course of this camp it like about the past couple of years. Done a I would say pretty successful re brand in the manner of Bernard Sanders to be like. That you know at an old. An older man who is an ally of the progress so an older progressive who channels the policy goals the last most notably. The green new deal. Markey has been very supportive of a C. And her. You know her quest to get a green new deal pushed through whatever that means right and I don't mean that ranks of the I mean it's very general. Ballot anyway that's how mark he's kind of made his balance he is being challenged by Joseph Kennedy yes that Kennedy. Grandson. Of Roberts. He is Patton. You know young handsome red headed that he's kind in the Kennedy thing he in this yet a lot people think he is running for this particular senate in this particular senate primary. Because he wants to a boy aid. Complicated he want to avoid ready answer and it Pressley for a future Massachusetts senate seat. And so Kennedy is kind of this he saw the says his chance and Kennedy. As far as you know what constituent groups there are kind of going far for mark he's been endorsed by C Kennedy has been endorsed back looks. Markey is kind of winging the for aggressive Twitter. And kind of the boat I would say you know. Liberals. Young progressives apps in Massachusetts is a pretty liberal state so. And it's a pretty wealthy state particularly in years around Boston all the know. And you also have areas around Boston that are very white working class Catholic Democrat which is a whole other side. Kennedy is doing pretty well those people and also with voters of color and to being a Boston area. There's a lot of generational stuff there's a lot of. Hereditary. Political dynasty stuff. I don't should I sat talking about a given that the didn't picture of this there's a lot of things to talk patents rates. A stock I guess I'll just throw this out there before Reid did any deeper is that are reliable. Polling producers and a primaries are hard to poll but is it clear. Who's leading going into tomorrow. Yeah Adam. Marquis seem to be behind it has pulled ahead in the polls. By margins in the high single digits journalists so he's he's the favorite. So Clare has described as a Teresa Boortz and this has become. A nationalized. Race is symbolic of the grievances with in the democratic part. Is data kind of fair characterization of what's happening on the ground where is that different constituencies that there speaking to. Warner is there. Has that dynamic flattened everything it's not clear. That you can really talk about this race in ideological terms his or both. Running is kind of in the same policies straight I mean it's just like. Candy is just like karma candy and I'm entitled to the seat well it's just. He's meeting the only candidate they suspect he obviously is not used. You know that's the that's like the message there's nobody really bright he's like he's like he's younger more dynamic right there's no real message. I've scoured his likely campaign materials and what dress me something apart from just I'm a Kennedy I guess there really anything. I'm not totally disputing it it's like. That's it that's all I have to say right there like there's amazingly. He's not ready for me is a left or the right relative to marquee right it's just I'm younger we need new leadership and you know. KE NN EBY that's happens to be my last name it. I think you'd park is part of an adult that you think you totally irrelevant to be partly. What he's saying to me younger. And then I'll yield more dying in news. More a national figure like more if not his memoir burning car is up and help him. If you're like left notes and he's saying. Because he's implying because I'm young and he picked his parents. Debate but I think he's saying W war if you think that your good morning might be I think native actually corrective Mike that is. Q and players who might and his running. A because being a senator it's easy to run for president in the NB I think Clarence in communities I think in this unit this. The warrant retires. ID on the Pressley. Will run probably run for this seat and Mike s.'s apes unity with the idea out Pressley but it again. Him and he wants to run for president I don't think you'll rate. Boom for him you can imagine the I if you can be all got our view that I got to presently President Reagan did it. Awkward it's a much less awkward race to live now Carolina resident Lee yeah exactly and yet. Yeah exactly like well yeah I took the spot this up and coming black woman the right it was art a rising star cost. Right Britney you're right he is ready to -- cavity I would say it like. It's it's such a funny. The thing is that have become like issues in the selection our Mary Mary like. Local though in some ways like Kennedy has had a couples lobs about like the key got. Ayman missed out suspect the co op in op would docked at the quad and reservoir. This game Wear it like it. It is it displease these towns and Kennedy had this. Email from his campaign he said while marquis isn't representing these town and it turns out that the town had been. Filled up by this reservoirs in locker existed and then this morning he misspelled. Lester. As in Worcester Massachusetts. Which is not felt like what's just years it's now like. What's that was to shoot. Its. Albert WOR. CE ST ER Rickey put in each after Betsy Kirk cracked. That's correct yeah. He is with Wooster Ohio or booster. That OS TR. Anyway so and then like you know so so people got mad about that Kenny is Nino that's now wants to our. Or Kenny doesn't even know that the use it would solicit bids and the steps there. Would also say it like people it martz has been getting criticism from. The black community in Boston because. There was there was a blacks in me whose family members died. Has been very vocal about Markey. Mark EU lately it back in his career was. Like technical live. Wait Democrats man. Not for busing initially which I think you know probably he talked like they're black voters it they might remember I mean. Boston hasn't eerie very complicated. I ran. And then maybe topped Boston disease sort of if you if you talk about like north there in. White ethnic racism Boston kind of comes up and it's just great thirty active. But I was liked it to use about Boston. Where where jacked on these mothers. Says she's playing cards the other lady's for a with the other women from our lady of reluctant integration. Great joke. And dairy. Telling about Austin so I think there's a lot of also dynamics at play and eat the service between these two like. White guy IC marquis tires but. There are. So. I think this race is not being based on these two candidates who have Aries you know to. 10 senator went in and the well that's similar views but I left in and it's in the role policy and COC in this Mexican border at approximate might. Are there two years long fight. There's actually gritty race because mark was one of the anti it was sponsored the senate berth in the green new deal which of course quality interaction for two years. So mark so because marquis supported the green new deal AOC. Endorsed him instead it's not about whether you're young in terms of the easement well you're ideas are yeah. And so he's been and so he has yet you know once marquee at the AFC enormously popular in America and it ignited a clear and parts of New York. But it has helped marquee wins the younger and the college educated vote. In Matthew despite having any of us he really strongly behind him. And then you add a couple weeks ago Pelosi who has been generally discouraging. Primaries. In in in the house jumped out and it's surprising to me even joked endorsed. Kennedy over marquis incident may incident is really getting all his campaign on captivity in casinos in the matters my guess they're in the same chamber Omar Al along that. So the policy and he has he had jumped into this race. Two guys who were all Democrats there's no electability questions is really not much help humans but isn't that it's a sign that. I think his proxy fight is gonna continue and it's been and so passing parties. Two years out of curiosity given you've described a proxy fight. Between her two sections of the Democratic Party. Is this an open primary can only Democrats vote work hand independents and Republicans vote. They're presidential primary is a modified. Primary which is kind of in between closed and open. I think that often means it independents are people who are on the filly can go but now people the other party. I don't know if their senate. Primary is different art while any closing thoughts on. The race tar mean in the grand scheme of things. Well the result be important I'd Iran. No. Now immigrants humanity us going on the world I think it's not very importance. To. Lee in this proxy. To pay anything until the Democrats and every bill are going to vote you know what. You know what if somebody Kennedy becomes president and it will open very important. I be shocked if we have in elected another Kennedy but you know. Who knows. My fair enough data management. Devices over to mr. Hannity. Fair enough as I mention election America deserves it. As I imagined it no Kennedy has ever lost an election in Massachusetts but Markey also as a perfect record when it comes to winning elections we will see what happens on Tuesday. Let's leave it there for now making any. Thank you given date declare. It. And think you paired. My name is gallantry Tony chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com. You can also course greeted us with questions or comments. If your fan of the show beavis or reading or reviewed in the apple cart pass to work or tell someone about us also subscribe to us on YouTube. Thanks for listening and we'll seize. There are. And.

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