Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Tracking impeachment support across the country
Hello and welcome to the fact dirty politics podcast on today's episode we're going to discuss. To lead his impeachment pulling. Count americans' opinion shifted at all since the house hearings have begun on impeaching president truck. We're also gonna look at the leaders pulling in the democratic primary out of Iowa and ask why education is such an important factor in determining how people. You're watching the guys dirty politics podcast on ABC news why we've got a big. A week out of us with impeachment hearings and a democratic debate would have a lot of podcast for you this week many of those to do with the hearings so. We're gonna check in briefly on impeachment polling and then move on to some other topics. And those topics include the state of the democratic primary in Iowa the lead us to Moines register poll came out this weekend. And it shows people to judge will be healthy lead over Warren Biden and Sanders there. Walt good to pick up on a theme from our conversation last week. And ask why it's someone's level of education is so important in determining how they will vote. And here need to do that our editor in chief needs overcome the governing could Galen how are you I'm gone and got some Monday morning I'm ready to go. Monday long weekend also here at us as you just heard as managing editor Mike McConnell and Harry are very good happy Monday thank you thank you and joining us from the great state of Texas is our politics editor saarc process and how the don'ts are. Here also I'm happy to have you so. Let's begin Wie is where public opinion stands on the possible impeachment of president trap. Neat how we gotten any significant new data since the hearings began can we tell if they're changing public opinion or at. There'd been a few polls there's one from you go of couple from it sows. And they. Suggest particularly big changes in fact overall. Support for impeachment spin quite flat for her. Several weeks now since the kind of first flurry of of accusations came out. There is some evidence that people who are watching the hearings are more inclined to. Support impeachment which should be a favorable factor Democrats however it's also when these things for like. Coming up more Democrats are Washington hearings and Republicans from what we can and for so. So if you're looking for like big dramatic shift space on the on. Testimony starting. Not much evidence of a yet I would say like it's not quite enough polling to say definitely not. But there are not much many signs yet of of movement and when what you say that we we all have. Our picture a more full picture of how public opinion walks say a week or so into you these hearings. I'm leave it to another week I'm sure a lot of pollsters are. Our interest student in polling. About impeachment about probably wanna get a pre Thanksgiving Reid on the democratic primary so wouldn't surprised if you see like a lot of big. National polls in the field this week as a problem won't be in the fields next week for Thanksgiving and so I think by the end of this weaker -- week's podcast we'll have. A better sense and also be somewhat complicated right because while they're in the field were going to be hearing from some of the key. Witness says in all of us I would yeah dot I I think we need to be. Patient and seeing how. How and whether that hearings affect public opinion both because of what Nate says an in with any event it takes time for and that for that event to be reflected in polls but also as a Melia has set on this podcast and read for the site. These hearings tend to affect public opinion in net aggregate more than any specific moment. Sudden I had I just think it'll it'll take a bit also like remember. The whole the entire country is watching the hearings themselves there's some Watson summer and about on local news so I think we just have to wait for all that play out. So just allay some marker is down at the beginning of this process Sarah can you give us a little bit of a picture of what public opinion looks like at the start of all best. Yes they're billing and CE first hearing last Wednesday both Laura and Daniel at this site. Look act where impeachment stood on her any different types of questions showed support for holding it in queried support French each and sell. And importance each and Ruble. And it'll depressing I don't want. But most popular apple and query and an impeachment an impeachment anger or hurt significantly less popular program like. 27%. Or 40%. Where support for an in prairie at 51%. Which. And the big Trenton to go away and he's expecting to kind of started to local what thinks. I think in early September when news that the current Kindle the Ers great change. But now it's GS and I'm excited going to be partnering with excess army and other panel study that looks. Powell Americans years and each and changed your parking area. Act like a you know mentioned here that point. Tax be hearing her she never ship to be addressed to check in with disdain. Participants to keep their interchange. Winner kind of technical thing to keep in mind is that. As Sarah sadness or pieces of said there are differences based on the questions that are asked about impeachment. So people west station we start he picked a process that and to pull better than should trump be impeached. Pollsters for the most part are no longer. Asking them begin the process. Question because the process began right. And so therefore they're for your not getting those numbers as often with what the big like ten point support don't support getting the usually much closer. Polls about impeachment itself about the actual act of impeachment and removal. And I know it's gonna take some time as we've already mentioned and that it will be easy cumulative affect. In general or at least that's what history tells us if public opinion is going to changed. But I mean. From a starting point. Do we have reason to believe that from here public opinion could still shift significantly. You know or our partisan opinions so sack and stone that even if say someone on Wednesday gives damning testimony. That people are still pretty much stuck where they are. I think both. Himself. So just answered yes now look that there are a big chunk of the country is set Norway's I'm Paula says that right they have they have kind of made up their mind. But I still think. I think much of the coverage a much of the commentary on their rates. The number of persuade a ball and swing the bowl voters there are with regards to impeachment. We don't have the exact numbers that I can't cite a number but I think one thing our. We're looking for in that polling Sarah mentioned with it says is how firm people are in their. Police about impeachment. It's okay you oppose impeachment. Are you are you've certain about that are somewhat certain about that right. I think. I guess I'd say is there are enough. Swing noble voters out there whether they move more towards impeaching and removing trump or dance. To have a big immaterial impact. On. How old senate Republicans evaluate what they should do and on 220. The reason I say it that way is it's not a ton of people overall in the country it's not like 50% of the country is winnable on this. But if it's like I'm ballpark and make you know. If 10% of the country. Is still swing the ball on impeachment. Well that's a difference between trump having you know. Dad but but. A bad approval rating but not so bad that he can't win reelection. And being a real significant underdog for re election rent. I mean sure are being you know in some ways the most important number. Of all might becomes approval rate him because there are forces pushing another direction on the one hand a lot of bad news conduct is being revealed in their hand. If there is a backlash to impeachment could help trump right and so far. His approval rating is has stated about 41%. Which is. A little bit down from. 42%. Kind of tree Ukraine session speech meant. Which and one and is not a bigger shift and a hand 42 was not the how to begin with and so losing a point is not great news for trump exactly but you know I and I tend to be like. And you know connect early on the sword Brooke I'm like yeah things are moving quickly and it's little hard to predict it does feel like Republicans. Have been able to kind of rationalize that. OK all this conduct it occurred and it's not. That bad right because a lot of details that were debated initially kinda been revealed in and kind of admitted to and it's it's a little hard to know I don't know man I think some and is a key. Sonong will be really is a key witness. To land Wednesday facts. But also I mean to the point of whether or not Democrats would face a political backlash the number that you just mentioned about tribes approval rating shows that the cabinet I think. A lot of the conversation about impeachment up until Ukraine broke. Was well as Democrats go down this path. There's likely to be a political backlash and it does point in the process we can sector has not been a political back cash freight. Not so far. And it it's sort of hard to imagine what would happen to cause one I mean certainly if there were evidence that you know that's how do you say that word exculpatory. Evidence. Black and and trumpet the GOP doing what I often do which is making arguments that are persuasive to. The 41%. That I write and think would have a lot of resonance outside the fort when we'll but I actually I don't think it's sorry sir I don't think it's 41% I think it's persuasive to like 30%. And in net debt the difference between those two things is the key kind of yeah. Now I think I did Pickering my guess Africanist he had not just. There unless. He's taking more people and congress particularly there and he. At least that she entire game. Strongest under the president to that extent I wasn't really expecting going hand and it just turned a party line and I think. Increasingly you're going to war and just the number started to level off. Or at hearings start at I think an incredibly hard to match those numbers or. Totally fair point and Sarah points to. An interesting dynamic which is there is kinda chicken or egg question. With regards to. Public opinion and were public opinion on the right in particular which is. Howell how much ten public opinion on the right move against trump if although Republican elected officials you know Republican elites don't move against top there's a perfectly reasonable theory that says. It just can't move that much as long as elected officials are standing by. Trump then the public. Will tip well and then the other piece of that is our Republican elected official standing by trump because the public of exactly so chicken check tracker I but look I think like. Sarah is absolutely right I like. Trump's approval ratings judge against past presidents have been really steady. I'm. It all the evidence we apps attempt suggests partisanship has really strong. Things are really heart to move. But you know if trumps approval rating got to. 37%. 36%. And its billionaire before it was Aaron is first the year so it's not like we're trying to imagine something we've never seen before. That's a really really big deal and a big change from where we are now we will see what happens and I mentioned we're going to be. Tracking impeachment hearings all week were also have a reaction time of the democratic debates a listeners. Check in with us Dili but let's move on to you. The latest public opinion news out of Iowa. So here's a story that Des Moines Register released a new poll of the democratic primary race in Iowa this weekend. He chose people to judge leading the pack with 25% support followed by Warren with 16%. And Biden and Sanders each with 15%. In fifth place was Amy Klobuchar with 6% so this is a significant shake up from the last mart register poll in September. When Warren was leading the pack we have 22%. Support. First raw meat we tell listeners all the time not to put too much stock in a single poll what is the argument for keying in on the results of this apple. I don't think working in Iraq as increasing as an excuse to introduce a segment about people to take she was an important candidate in this race. If you are gonna. Keyon someone pull this is it a plus rated. Hold them buy seltzer Inco and Iowa there been other polls though also of Iowa that give you some. Version of the same story that show com but it church rising. In Iowa if not 21 place thing kind of in a tie for first edition. The day's show. Bernie holding his own miss not having improved a little bit and and they show Biden and in particularly Warren kind of declining C and a bunch of candidates were bungled up and bunched up together. Somewhere neighborhood of 20%. Mom. Of those it seems like Biden is. Somewhere in the middle riveted to somewhere on top of that we percent. Warren middle top been Sander and pretty churches first is me and Bernie is on the bottom usually more around fifteen but like but it's obviously very competitive four way race there right now. Sarah Buddha did you is support was at 9%. In September just two months ago what is the explanation for his sixteen point or so. Rise and Iowa. Yes. I haven't. Q did point helping me decade and 91 kind of squishy bigger the narrative explanation. I restarting its. She did really well and not that they could put something immediately captured and her whole episode she upper arms pre debate paper ability. He did not get the top mark Moore actually equal the record high it's great. The ten Ichi gets bigger. Chunk of time out. She actually got the biggest increase four point points and cold. Actor that lasted eighty in October church where it's Lauren actually it's a little and that's it then. Some also look at she everything and then after such. And I think. While he has not increased that much nationally as it happened early states should tackle Whitney I think are really do. Isn't a new trend continuing well in Iowa New Hampshire should. Earlier in October and just Elliott look at the site or at each. What it was looking like mr. stay and he again pat. In the biggest drag and I'll let you point that point front had urged oh Burge. And in their own right. Ole in my register notice that its top here I didn't war and standard and it's it's really picture merchant June. I think it like for reaching a new claimed a mention the decision independently buildings for awhile now. America's Arab basically three theories here. Give me Sinai for talking to on someone and you'll have to instead I'll be happy to. I think you're number one is that. This all husky with IO in particular that Buddhist which is a good Iowa candidate he's in you know. Nice midwestern boy. Has spent a lot of time and money there. Has parlayed a lot of his early fundraising success and to building on the ground game better and that you know. Is about Iowa leaving the packets 31 right my theory two is that this is more about the relative waive the cancer positioning themselves. That go to church is pretty clearly attacking Warren now from. From the right. And it's kind of correct to do so tactically because. Because voters are not as liberalism cans were assuming. That Bernie is big competition on the left and therefore. Kind of propping the squeeze on Warren where she on the one hand. Gets flak numbers wears on her left and now also. Booted touched. In the kind of center left. Hamachi squeeze Nesta dynamic and a third period that was a little bit of it. Media. Inspired. Infused bubble right where because you know in our initial polling after debate we did social British doing well but like. You know if you looked at all polls can and a two week after last month's debate. Then he got maybe a point Friday is a more and double or maybe appoint Bernie Rosen maybe appoint club betar rose by maybe appoint these are our small moves right. But then they trigger press coverage and saying hey look. You know it's not a sellable to touch is doing in so that can kind of be a little bit of a self fulfilling prophecy sometimes we're. And kind of he also happen this time when the neared it was like no you kind of renewed. Twist and turn down in the story and also the time when I think democratic. Donors some party elites were saying oh I'm not sure. We're not really sure about the current top. Two to four candidates although I don't think they picker like put it it's either the donors do. But I'm not sure like the right party bigwigs do but like so there are a lot of things. Going on there a lot of things going on there so. I mean just at. Russian. Based on everything you said name shall one of those were specifically about Iowa. But the rest are necessarily some -- why are we seeing this happen in Iowa but not nearly to the same extent nationally. Well we also we we're seeing a little bit of it is and New Hampshire to Vietnam booted judge has gotten some some good polling there. A look but it judges' support is still mostly white so you're. Once you get to national surveys he he's he's not gonna do as well there at least Vietnam. Because those polls are more representative of the democratic electorate overall right. I tend to think I think there's enough evidence to say that. Booted judges and enough he was called up for that to the center. Maybe that tells us stylistic coal pit at a certain yet whether it's on style or substance or just has how he's positioned himself. These are RN. I think that's been I think there's enough evidence to say that has worked for him not only has he resident in the polls but if you look at like. Who we does well against Hui does well with what that the Democrats. It's much more. Democrats who identify as moderate Democrats who identifies somewhat liberal while before he did better whip. The more liberal and of that spectrum the problem with describing any of this though is site. You know when you're like walking down a hallway and your sums coming the other way and you both go. The same to you both try to dodge each other's same direction up first thing he spent like five minutes. Both trying to make the same move and eventually to somehow breaks and you and you walk past each other. The democratic primary because voters are so concerned about beating trump and therefore have to make. Assumptions and guesses about what other voters will do. That's like it's that it's like that hallway scene times a million right because our all sort of like. Trying to guess okay what will voters in these other states do. Based on what I'll do based on what the media saying and so you end up with this really complicated system that like Nate says. Has feedback loops and has noticed it's just hard to describe so like. Buddha judges rise saying what can we point to maybe did well on the debate but maybe it was like a thousand little things that broke his way you know. Well the other thing changes note here is that the democratic primary race and in general primary races can often be fluid because people don't have to jump across the partisan barrier in order to support a different candidate their already old Democrat and all of these candidates are Democrats or you can change your mind pretty quickly based on how the media is reporting on something or. A new policy or what ever it may be. But based on what might as that's our water some of the challenges that face. Booted judge calm on the national scale to man them. Or any intent. Some extent I think she suckers that seeing problems warrant at a time much it is how great she alternate struggling to get earth. Her eight. But she still enjoy a higher national support and just. He really past yet Okur content. How I can beat when we were looking at school and our children are kept there. Nationally. He enjoyed Childress had a lot of or entry and Hispanic support. Green had warned them not I should brown did she percent among black center and each and senate armed NX. I didn't he creates two really at least a category. But it's a real problem for his candidacy particularly the issue but he had a mayor and and with the police force there and how it turned down. Both members at home in unity and also our national alcohol. And then annually talked about it the parliament cut cap and elsewhere on the study. Fat idiots ranting at any openly gay man and US has real. We haven't got an eight president and I didn't meet stripe and even if you don't like big secret that Americans more open to the epic it cracked the bench and now. That much 8% but still that's. Are sorry that's 76%. Including majority of Republicans. But it still you know their pockets with and that particularly among boaters are lower as he didn't. I have the art Icrc staff struggling bills. And they laughed and I think that all at the grill it's cheaper and moving forward and use that thing Stan let me be the detection. Bennett said it. Brown arm Warren being seen it should look Earl cooking heat would rather risk acne. Flop back are not and where oh yeah you know you're kidding trucks to batter Mike at match. But may be that. A little bit chewed up political menu earth and that alien voters in the end she could not clear he scans forks. I don't and it opposition to a little brother or policy that Warner standards of putting organs it'll. Did the good bullet as interesting as the Buddha judge. Campaign. Leaked. I think paper it was them who leaked or when it was made public we can assume that it was possibly recall who knows what else happened but he was made public this left and then. Don't you don't yeah exactly this this focus groups that purported to show sort of resistance to booted judge among black vote errors because of his. Sexuality right. Can I have a quote from that area. Focus group report it says quote being gay and this is a focus group of black voters in south Carolina at. It's as quote being gay was a barrier for these voters particularly for the man who seemed deeply uncomfortable even discussing it. Their preferences for his sexuality not to be front and center. Also let's take care for was groups are not pulling they are not represented well but but there there is certainly. Brett so that's absolute truth there is certainly. Less support for Alex and sent sex marriage for example in the black community then there is among like Democrats up for all right. But I don't know booted judge. Is not he's still not doing well with most groups of voters so it's hard to an end on that one thing certainly it may be the campaign wants of the deployment on that Huckabee also said the you know we don't think that's the reason that we're not during world orders after there it is blew up a little bit and they're like let's clarify we think the reason I mean they're supporting him is because it. It's looks sorry and we're equipment and that the part that really interesting to me though is is. Ten depend on the question of whether but a judge can get more support among black voters is actually more like an ideological question. There's something we've talked about a podcast before this question like. Black voters identifies more moderate what does that mean. Because. You could say okay well. Blue judges running more towards a San are now maybe that will help him among black voters. He does have anywhere like the connections to that community that that Biden has and we haven't seen any evidence yet. That that have that a pivot to the center has helped him there but it will be it'll just be interesting to watch those. According to one theory you would think that would help them I'm not trying to buy that Perry but. Only backup of a second ranked if you look at public opinion on same sex marriage. Among all voters in different. Racial ethnic groups. The differences of closed quite a bit where. We're like voters are our. A little bit more opposed to gay marriage than white or Hispanic or Asian voters but. But those differences have closed. It's how we look at opinion among Democrats. You do see some fairly stark contrasts so. In 26 team. 14%. Of white voters who voted in democratic primary. Oppose gay marriage. As to -- 2% of Hispanic voters 90% of Asian voters when he percent of it American voters. 41% of black voters in the democratic primary. Oppose gay marriage which is a minority but like a much more sizable minority then and fourteen or fifteen or twenty or 22. So what's going on here well. For most racial groups if you're. Anti gay. And maybe anti gay is too strong way to put it right but if you know if you're not progressive on on social issues including. Gay rights than you tend to be Republican or an independent near the very least you're not going to be eat excited to vote for Kennedy in the primary right. Because after Americans are so. Strongly democratic. That socially conservative blacks are also usually Democrats and off them will vote. The democratic primary right. And so therefore. There for their kind it is like it. More of a challenge for rich hatch but like you said I think it's not the only one right I think one thing generally speaking. Com ask American voters. Tend to prefer. Candidates who have good. Credentials they tend to prize electability they tend to want to build alliances with tenets of other groups of support six other candidate can win right. That kind describes in the sport for Biden or Hillary Clinton. But for him. Ambit attached does not have that experience does not have that those connections. Does not particularly. Come across as electable. If you ask people rethink the most logical candidates are right and so. And so you know irrespective of his sexuality you think should not be it. A fantastic candidate in the after American community any respective. Policing issues in yeah in South Bend so he has his multiple challenges. We talked funny about rooted judge I'm sure to talk about his campaign plenty more in the days weeks etc. to calm. But there was something else that obviously happened in the Iowa poll that we wanted to key on on which is that Warren declined from 22% support in September leading the pack. Now to 16% closer to where Biden and Sanders art. What is the explanation. For back as a just media cycles again. I think that explains part of it certainly she she. Was was in she went through a kind of rougher media cyclone got a lot of criticism. For her position. On health care what but what like why is warrant going down. Friends I think part of it is L electability. Became a bigger part of the conversation I mean maybe that's just another way of saying that she had a rough. Media cycle. But electability became a bigger part of the conversation. Some appalling and Iowa shows. Concerns about her ability to win a general election. For being too far left have increased there. And so. Adds that happened I think he saw and he saw some of her support go to booted judge. A little bit could have good Sanders. And it's just a hard are harder herb. Argument for her to make now she's tried to in the last couple daisy been. Tried she's tried to thread the needle on health care right now we're now she's proposing essentially a time but two step plan. Public option and then Medicare for all but it. But it's I don't know I don't know if the work you know. Yes I mean so that plan that Warren released last Friday it where is ditto what she called her transition plan on health care and it made out all these different things that she wanted to do but the main takeaways. Visit the Medicare for all was that she's eyes in the first 100 nation wants to pass a public option and then. Up to three years into her Brit hypothetical first term she would try to tackle Medicare for all as a replacement for private insurance Sarah what's the political strategy. I I think the reason why. She. She noted on one local Medicare for all right Lisa pike yet but all secret health insurance. Isn't that popular even among Democrats but people in the kind of heads to attack that breaks. And I think you know. One inch in terms of her client it is. After an apparent health scare in early it occurred standards he came back and had a strong. Debate performance and I think he never slept so little bit in his poll while greatly speaking to enact are after all legal. Four points from just can hurt people can get a little bit better nationally. It was saying yeah if people are turning to issue super girl and don't want the real deal. Standard should not backing down Medicare for all I think you're gonna break it a lot to support there and now he's trying to write ink. Miki and she detached more than she wants blood from the thank yes. Now I can't get you back here girl who wanted but he did kinda arms camper and initially. Kristi sport and I think America is in response she is the action under and up to age when it's really you know we're happy earlier kind of the cold front tire amnesty point was going to see more skirt me. Any news yet if you want to paint an optimistic case for Warren and the way you would say is hey she still has. Problem the best funeral ratings that the democratic field she's a lot of people second choice but because she kind of is this bridge between. Between the left on the one hand. And more means for Democrats the other hand them like okay in her worst moments and she's gonna say have people should lose both those battle shall have. Bernie be the perfect people on the left and shall have been checked shirt to work or Biden or someone else right be the preference of more mainstream Democrats she's. She'll ever I think does have a big problem on. On health care. Marty. Because its attraction for two problem for I mean like old bulls are first of hours of that exact problem like and why does this not salt. Well armies he scene until summer or not summing up if you original sin here somehow Bernie Sanders like a single. Smartest thing that anyone's done the campaign. Is Bernie Sanders somehow getting like several other Democrats including Pamela Harris is now has her own plan analyst with Warren to sign on to his version. A Medicare for all because it's kind of like it. Unwinnable. Position that you're and you know I think if Warren had not done that then on the I mean there are various steps that are in between. Sanders maker for all and just public option right. Kind of cases where everyone signed up you can opt out is one version of I think that -- had that planned for example. But like but so on the one hand like. On the public option is more popular. Then Medicare for all even among Democrats underhand for burning at least its leadership mean literally read a Democrat is like. Topping his plan efforts right so he gets credit for that and being. Consistent. One Aaron that was number one issue you would've just supported him probably anymore right. And Warren kind of gets neither. The popular position nor the leadership credit. And I know I mean I really wants to Kelly cheaters in the debate I thought the statement she put out on Friday as she put out. During impeachment hearings and Friday which would suggest that he knows feels like something you kinda have to do you know happy about it. I think is a pretty big advantage. She was saying here is a very detailed. List of ways that I will affect the system without Medicare for all any detail kind of basically public option plan now all of my first year. And that in my third year. He also fight for M. M four a right. The thing is near third year usually parties lose seats at the mid terms their her acceptance a camera kind of once generation but not very often and so like so. My idea I don't get I totally don't get this criticism so so okay. I think for both see if it works or not I think if warrant had from the beginning come out with a plan might best. I think it probably would've work it's totally political play it's Ike. You're stuck between Iraq a rock and a hard place right you're trying to win the laughter the Democrat party which is gung ho for Medicare for all. But Medicare for all over Ross there was saying it is unpopular right suits and there's no way to perfectly square that circle. Some cyclists to step what ever write. Is it is tagged as good an attempt that's bring that's her cause I've seen. But the criticism that like and I suck I suck I think I think this is but you're saying it I've seen other people make it that like. Oh this this. This would. This imagined a world in which he be able to pass to major health care bills in one term. Which has which has never been done before. Medicare for all if not then become law. So what is is Warren's plan and team more political. Any less politically feasible then Sanders is planned or frankly that might Biden's plan I don't think so all of this is like meet up. Right none of this is gonna write like the why she. But it's a litmus test may not totally out. They are saying well and you had to I think it unique eating pretty strongly like hey I'm an excellent thanks. You're saying rhetoric even plant isn't going to be captain Sox. Go back and she's not you know Obama didn't see that part happened a lot he didn't back down from the campaign trail. They did it. In acting being just rant let her and he order. To better that I have a plan and it. Oh absolutely. The planet which I had it can end out what I originally crop. To kind of threat that middle ground I think and evidently. Her she that the candidate that he came out initially backed alternative care. And now and the timing of it because it wouldn't surprise me if let's say she wins nomination. Is she comes out just like you and you're right we might academic year for also here's my public option plan right or she's. Dispose. Some of her rivals. And she's just trying to kind of heads a little bit and kind of set up the general listens to the American people on I'm incorporating their feedback but this lighted area executed is. Electability concerns by the Democratic Party right like I think that yes that is your traditional thing that happens I don't think just added I think its right literally that like. In the Iowa poll was like 37% of voters emulated the exact number. 38% of IA led Democratic Caucus goers. Thought Warren is too liberal up from 23%. In March. But he's sure a liberal group only 4% say she's too conservatively sir of one of the most liberal electorate that you'll encounter in the country right. Somebody combination of young people tied together electability. In recent the issue some people also just frankly like preferred the public option to a maker for all. On the believes some of the Chris is and that Biden and others have. And also I do wonder if Warren is like. I think warrants rise came during a period where she was seen as like Jesus like and his Smart affable. Want coup sure she's liberal quite liberal but like. But she's also pragmatic and has also plans for things right and so you don't have to be a leftists to like Elizabeth Moore and right. Somehow when she kind of reach this front runner status. People start perceiving her differently in this includes like people you know that are quoted in the times of the post about like. In a democratic donors fear mean if you listen like people unlike the in the business community mean for some reason like. They decided that Warren is not a more moderate all turned to Sanders but like eight. A big threat to like you know kind of being a billionaire financiers way of life and and you might think people like all it's great when she's criticized by these. Jerks on CNBC or whatever right I do wonder if if it does cause some problems though if you kind of consistently here as a voter that. Warren is too liberal too liberal too liberal them like then for various reasons Democrats might fear that also things like you know. Maybe there's a universe I'd I guess now with hindsight we say it would never happen right. You know maybe it was a universe where when she kind of catches Biden. But actually a little bit like with Howard Dean which is accept example ended well for the chanting question right but like Howard Dean at one point lead the democratic primary in. Endorsements and people are like well you know what. Clearly this is what the people want and he's not that bad so if your party elite thinks he's too liberal values are not bad so you know I mean Al Gore. Endorsed Howard Dean at one yelling right so we've never but we never quite saw that with where we never quite saw people saying you know what. Actually let's were quicker. We against the December of the establishment we like her better than Bernie. And mainly preferred Biden but we're not sure if Biden can be trapped anyway this is lost his fastball there Farrah you know and you didn't see that so so. No I look I think I've Imus at that and has a very compelling argument that that the barn campaign. Messed this health care issue up from the beginning and that they should have ran they should have position themselves more as. Hey it most of what Sanders is giving you but more acceptable to to the establishment. And so if you're if you're playing that up a little bit more from the beginning. Which would probably mean releasing something like this Medicare for all plan from the get go write a public option that more warped tour towards Medicare for all. There's real risk there the risks there is that warrant doesn't have that steady upward slope with. With the most liberal democratic voters that we saw from month to month to month. But the potential upside is what need is describing which is okay office and you get some endorsements. You don't lose this ground them to booted judge I would just say though that Mike. In this counter factual world. I think there are many east and there are many simulations. That this is all simulation and where. Warrant gets tagged more as just a political operator. And a Clinton redux. And I think that's more that would have been more likely to happen if warrant had not run so cleanly. That looked at left pedals are. I mean I think that Warren's defense on a lot of this is going to be something along the lines of from the beginning I sad that the two main things that I wanted to tackle. Were the wealth tax and the like corruption. And so she always said that like culture shock herb number one priority in the way that it was for Sanders but. I want you. Give us some time acute move on and actually answer a listener question from last week. Last Monday it when we had two dates on the podcast we talk a lot about. The role that education plays in determining how people slow and how it's important to wait for education. When you're polling and meek and basically means like make sure that you have a representative number -- of people Wii is and without. College degrees in your final results and so we got a question from a listener Katrina who asked. Why did just basically widened as occasion matter so much in how people vote. And this is something that we want to do more reporting on here at 530 because we do think it is a worthwhile and interest in questions. Question and we're gonna brainstorm. Ways to answer bat in a meaningful way. Because it's such a good question we wanted to just take a little bit of time to talk about what we do you know about the answer to that question. And then will follow up on it meter when we do some more in depth reporting. So Sarah I don't as a something that you have looked into. Plainly but why is education such an important factor in determining how people vote. Increasingly. Education and into new Coxe class that in recent that we're talking at. So much and white silent partner in determining how long boat. Is because outline. The number one indicator and 116. Put their intent edged her Trout are Clinton you know education. And correlated with income but. But even when you isolated for education level and sixteen it would be key rhetoric. County with the largest population that those without a college securities broker trump and end at county with the largest populations. Broke. Mr. Clinton. And I think you know because it is a pretty big. Real I'm between the parties non college educated white letters to solidly democratic voters. In addition to dramatically in other recent which were talking about that's. And even less than a decade tracking her when he can't when he she wiped at at a college degree. Growth from hit TCP. Percent at the Republican Party. Meanwhile when he went to college stricker fall from forty to 29% and intent is huge shift static and shooting can get more than. And one is bad it's not just act among poorer art college educated whites from the district and and all Democrat in hopes. Hubcap weeks. There are polluting Hamlin minority voters without a college degree although we know left the and the Garrett I think the best mark complicate Ed. But on the first planes. You know ridiculous over arching an infant and simplistic he had you can eat and I think. Yeah but also their mr. Kim and Y republic party would like relatively high incomes expand to 8230%. Middle class. That are also breaking it GOP. Aaron earlier and a Arquette talk at a teacher at a time but I you know he'd played in different chairs the senate again back in knots. Income indicating where people are going straight backed education and that's sure people who eat. Could keep our bench and then over sending thousands of people you wouldn't necessarily think the white working after all the breaking. Or trauma but then again you know has time last week I think this is part of a larger problem. That would start to drill and among voters who are right but also don't have a college degree turn he. Ships I'm not at a local radio from Democrats something I'm 26 teens in granite hard to separate out what that. Right there at in the county shifting for trial or what really like to Hispanic and black leather gloved it and how to concentration in the election but across the board it. Ingrid. Education increasingly dividing line between the CR is an act across all sorts of content. Thanks so neat. Look what is it specifically about having a college degree or not having a college degree. That determines argue broke like is that the simple act of going to college makes you liberal I mean I mean I think there are. It's and other kind of three theory. I wanna hear often want to threes theory. Yet so what is that education to stay marker of class. Who what's that mean I don't know as class a very complicated concept right. But you know has to with your social status asked do with how much esteem you generate. In the prestige of the jobs that you're able to obtain. Who your peer networks are right so it's when idea and already it has do with like. The community that you're embedded in this is related to class obviously but me actually be. The fact of going to college and meeting different types of people and then keeping some of those sponsor relationships later on in life right. Because you know in addition to. Education. Then geography now has become a very powerful predictor of revote for the sense of like if you live in a neighborhood you can actually go mortal like. She publish this research. You should go to like you were supposed to file it like you're I don't know it's still on that song problems. If you actually go and say okay I want to look up your census. Block you're census tract. And sit figure out how many people living in five mile square radius not square circular radius around you. Then that's a very proper care of evo four predictor for you before and also I'm if you look at. Like where's my community where's my home. Relative to Iraq commuted to action like live in the center of town were on the outskirts actually also predicts democratic voting. Quite a bit so it's number one class and to community. The third isolationism when they're probably. Like liberals. Would like and I think it's probably the least persuasive the three which is that's about. Being informed. Right and then after. If you're well educated then you're informed. And you know kind of the Paul Krugman argument like the facts would have a liberal. Bias and so that would push you toward being more persuaded about certain democratic. Arguments. I'm not saying there's nothing at all in that but like but you know team there's lots of research showing that. People can be very well educated and very informed and still very partisan in the partnership can override that but I think there's a three. Ideas that occur to me off handle so where would race. And racial resentment state and there because there's some research. It was part of our reading matched that. That shows focus of the Democratic Party. Used to have a lot of non college educated whites and that right it was the party of unions and ends and so and so actually I I think that is one potential explanation for why. Cup by education has become such an about dividing line is like that that kind of demise of unions over time but anyway. Michael Kessler who's a political scientist hit what his research found another recent session this is basically that. Non college whites started. Moving out of the Democratic Party and into the Republican Party. I was beginning basically when the Democratic Party. Became identified with civil rights right. When the Democratic Party started to sort of become identified with hey where the party for. Protecting and empower rang and a helping minority communities right. That that goes on protections and back into the act. Then. When Obama is a lack dead potentially that idea that the Democratic Party as the party four or whatever that means quote unquote for. Nonwhite Americans. That. Obama's election and they auction of a black man essentially. Broad cast that in net and marquee lights to the world and their for even low information voters. Let's say including not a non college educated voters voters who are really paying that much attention to politics and their fur. Aren't picking up on Mike more subtle cues that the Democratic Party is more aligned with. Minority community contrasts. Obama's election. Gets gets to them right. And and since Obama's much and you see that move meant to non college educated whites towards the Republicans and college educated whites towards. Democrat supercharged right. And what Kessler found in his research. Is is essentially once you once you can control for. M qwest variables about attitude variables about like. How much racial resentment you should oh or like questions like are right people discriminated against at the same rate says he's not racist sport or even questions like. Do you think America was better off you know government is yet than it is now which like. Make America great again right that's what that's getting happen. Which he found at least is that once you control for that stuff their education. Education as an explanatory variable sort of disappears that's just one piece of research silent and also in his it would seem like. Those are somewhat. Related like oftentimes college educated people learn some of their cultural and racial attitude trek through the higher education system with. Just Arabs and doesn't like us and we're gonna do more reporting on the so we will come back to mr. In reading a bit over the beacon some one interesting thing that I saw is that actually. So women have for a long time for for Democrats over Republicans. And women now outnumber men in higher yet so actually the college educated population in America has become skewed more towards women that it once was. It's about already tracks wit. Women preferring Democrats over. Republicans. Yeah I I. No I tempted. To be. Disposed toward these kind of community type arguments this isn't saying that like. So Democratic Party consists of a combination of largely. Upscale. Whites and then. Black Hispanic and Asian voters have been different social classes although predominately in the US that if you're black or senator more like the report and if you're white or duration. And you know arguably those groups would not have like. That much. In common necessarily. But you know through kind of colleges because colleges do try to be. Diverse places and through cities where. Could cities also tend to have. Black Hispanic and well off whites and actually not that many port writes often in cities. So like kind of this overlap between college and community. And kind of the coalition of the Democratic Party all kind of have interest thing. Overlaps and if you're not part of that here on the outside looking in than you might feel like you're a Republican although there is research also suggesting that like. That you know non. College after Americans. Specially men. And Hispanics are insisting swing group where there is a little bit maybe of sympathy to to trump. I think there was an eight Cohen's research at the upping the sucking and Kessler writes about a not a lot I mean you know. The Democrats numb he's gonna get. 89 or nine near 91% of the black vote but I think it. 89 or ninety instead of 9394. Then that's actually. Pretty material. And it seems like young non college after American Hispanic men are groups that are at least worth watching. Great question from a Katrina we appreciate all listener questions are if you listen to podcasts have things you want to ask us follow up on. Feel free podcast at 538 dot com or Twitter. But let's leave it there thank you may thank you gala think you Micah welcome and that you Sarah. My name is doing through Tony chow is in the control room are in turn is Jake Arlo. You can get in touch by denying us at podcasts at 530 dot com you can also of course be just with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show you rating or review to topple Castro or. Who wore tell someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see it's.
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