Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
In the in the words of Barack Obama he's just to act different. Reasons and but. Now with Apatow rep. Company's music this is completely separate from my kind is artist. But he is a jackass. Hello and welcome to the identity politics podcast I'm deal injury. As we discussed on the sparked the current national environment poses the challenges. According to a leaders polling averages president's prompt is down by ten percentage points nationally and behind in at least Wednesday. The current environment State's Democrats have several paths to winning sat. So ball wouldn't hate for Republicans two things around. Today we're gonna discuss a possible strategy strong and Republicans could pursuit to improve their competitiveness. This fall and he retreated do that our editor in chief Nate Silver any. Galen. Request this politics under Clinton on declare it. And also with us it's an arbitrator Perry bacon junior a parent. Ideal. Or so. Let's begin weird how the GOP could turn its elect world fortunes around there are still four months laughed. Until the election and certainly time for the environment to changed so let's think of this that's something of an open brainstorming session where we can consider strategies suggested by politicians and commentators just ideas that you'll come. And try to assess how much of a difference they could actually make between now. I get a kick things off with a one suggestion that's been batted around quite a and it not sure how serious it is. These kinds of rumors all's often float around. When president is seeking reelection but this idea is replacing vice president Mike Pence on detector particularly we have a one and so Perry let's start review what is the elect coral rationale. For such a move and is at least in evidence. So political science data we have we have very limited samples obviously. He's yes that vice president Candace don't really changed the results very much there's some evidence this summer get tested anyway they may be device was again as two to three points in their home state but deficits that's pretty limited. And that's so overall he began its we're not sure they met. This I do think in this environment is worth thinking about what they would say about Donald Trump. Neat if he. 08 that it probably. Voters perceive John McCain more negatively the more they learned about feels like a call petitions. So you've done it Donald Trump were to pick a person of color or a woman. As his running me to replace pins. -- that she asked that voters think of him. Differently particularly keep parent get change with giving if you were mount Rushmore style speeches. And more candid inclusive language you can imagine a sort of give it of Donald Trump. To be let's call it less racially conservative he was he changes his rhetoric he also. Has a running mate who might appeal to more culturally moderate people. I think that's not a bad idea and I also think Mike Pence is not adding anything right now so in some ways is actually I do a lot of pluses and no obvious negatives of my point of view. We it seems like an obvious negative would be annoying evangelical voters who like Mike tax rate. I don't see it that way you know I think Donald Trump is get the evangelical vote pretty locked down. I don't I think this idea that evangelicals are for people are voting for parents because he's churchgoing quotes thing that'll think this actually true. I think we're talking a sort of cultural attitudes and Donald Trump has the same ones and therefore I don't think you need pens for that. So I think what the VP. Talking in answered like mind games are all about. It is really about one person is Nikki Haley. And I think it. Putting Nikki Haley in woman and a woman of color in the former ambassador to the United Nations on the ticket. Would be actually a plea swore. Appealing to a demographic the trump is struggling with witches suburban women. Who I think are you saw movement starting movement away from the Republican Party starting in the 2018 terms in and you're seeing them she has really. Even more massive gender gap. In some the current polling and you did Tony sixteen which is saying something and so I think that conversation. It in my book you know cutting through them like Lech. Who could he pick immediate sticky Heatley. And I'm not I think the question is whether or not trump would want to. Make a move like that which is kinda. On the one hand bold on the other hand makes it's like the campaigns and scramble mode but also I'm not sure Nikki Haley would. Take that I think she she might she very well might she's done and I think a pretty good job of balance seeing being a trump ally with sort of I think hinting too sick you know to a certain degree that she is also a different kind of more serious Republican. But I don't know I think I think that if he was gonna pick someone it would be specifically her. Yeah I don't know why she would. Necessarily take that. Trump is nine points behind in the polls. If you were his VP you're gonna have. Three news cycles a week in which you're asked to. Repudiate her distance yourself from some. Tweet he sand or some comments he makes. Is she in some ways are presents kind of the the future forward for the GOP may be in a post from air and it's not clear to me that you win frankly rather. Have him lose and if you're her and not be associated. With him as he would court nominee in 20/20 428. I'm in you know it is kind of almost a classic. Sarah Palin game change strategy right where you know you're losing see kinda threw him pulmonary. I don't mean to compare it to you with a circuit uncertainties. Doesn't have some of the issues that Sarah Palin hadn't put that way. But. She's kind of a fairly bright prospect and for that very reason and do you want to take that risk now right considering the I think. If pence is dumped the new created. The enemy who. In my parents. And my commencement and might not be happy about that Mike Pence might start to. People loyal to mites are to say stuff. To the press right. Why so your vice president I mean I can be potentially. Rather interest thing as well. Settle. So. So their reasons that Nikki Haley might not walk this world by. If we step away from Nikki Haley force if there were changed it president trump could make to the ticket. That would potentially a Noory. Hence allies but potentially bring in more women voters would that be a trade off work. York tore. It depends on the patent office that pattern of organ that needs talking about Supreme Court nominations because there people eat up next. It like inattention or you. I mean you you could you could make the appeal to. Act like white suburban women in different ways and I think that way would be through. Well I don't know. Nominating Amy can't bear to to the Supreme Court assuming it. You know Thomas steps down occurred you know one the older justices dies or does one deal liberal justices doctors thanks to stepped down. Which you know I don't think many of them considered. And I think I think Thomas. Doesn't necessarily want to step down either but you could see a thomas' wife is quite. Looped in sisters Republican politics and trump trump world so maybe you could see a scenario in which. You know he's pressured to resign and someone who appeals to Whitman steps and I also think that that's kind of a hail Mary. Pasadena I think that there other things the term campaign could do before. Switching to BP. And trying to push out of current Supreme Court justice for woman Supreme Court justice but if we're talking you know during the culture. Lana fully and dolls are a potential Supreme Court vacancy and justice our debt but wrapping up. Vice presidential conversation. Me is that trade off port. Of course is worth it and has come back. If save Marco Rubio Tim Scott her Nikki Haley is offered the vice presidency they should take this to be clear hazard that as a way to become famous to come will known to be the runner up next. If trump puts you on the ticket if you're Nikki Haley in once existed in the confederate flag staying out in trump is insane he still should indeed asked. So I SO VAD so I think being on the being the vice presidency do you know which it now me there's a generally good paying. He's in a razor profile and I guess the trade off seems sort of ideas to me if only because. I struggle think of like yes I agree hence his staff will be bad stuff about the resident and Evelyn. Be helpful although I don't know what they're gonna say that John Bolton didn't say. But I think the upside is now potentially just wil white women I think it might be. That viewers strategists are Hispanic number from like 27 to 33 you're black number. I just think that like right now trumpet is like to in a place where there's a bunch of direct democratic groups across the electorate he struggling. And I don't think any of those groups are particularly excited about voting for pins in May be. Any different person yet IP peering might be some younger white men who might better than pets to be totally out as at a think the hail Mary we are talking about replacing pence. Is on a red think there's almost a lot of edit valued very little negative. If you presume that oh trump again a big bounce among women. Then of course he should do it I don't think is any reason to presume that necessarily. Or at least that like. There wouldn't be tradeoffs may be there are some Republicans who are not comfortable with that women. Of color on the ticket. And Simon us at disarmament loafers that constitution party. Candy writer by the hell Ronald roper Joseph Biden rightly student you know I don't know I I think. It's not obvious that like. It would necessarily and also. You have to assume. There for trump. That nothing happens as smoothly as it should write. That the rollout is botched that depends people are more upset than. I mean they're going to be upset anyway right. That maybe there are some vetting issues of Hayley that they didn't catch and are prepared to defend right. Their awkwardness is around having someone currently sitting as a vice president but and this is the nominee they haven't really thought through. So I don't know right I mean somebody's judgment talk about it are things that if you. Some had a perfect textbook Republican candidate maybe they could pull off right that was trump they're all higher degree of difficulty. Sharing hearing I entirely agree Perry with the idea that like if it. If trump offers views the VP spot should take it if you America revered in earlier matter. In part because it has do with like Trump's own peculiarities outside just Uygur if you like the vice presidencies raises your platform the truck also has. A problem with being. Second fiddle or proceeding to have been second fiddle so I mean you can see this with his new sort of obsession with. Out she. You know. Putting up Twitter polls to see who's who you trust mart trot her out she sees someone like. Nikki Haley rubio although I think he's a little bit less like a fresh new face. You could see trumpeting really jealous of the attention Nikki Haley kits and then either. Completely suppressing her public appearances and or her saying weird things are spreading weird rumors which. That's not out of the realm across billions White House. So. It's irregular. Situation I would say but I think Trump's. Own neuroses about. Attention and seen naked a more complicated calculus for that potential arson. It is good so you're saying tequila TP famous and have Donald Trump criticize Sarah had so the media right there's distance between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley just I don't think she described. Just I think everybody is an act crazy epidemics and I decide I agree with some of them but I think she might be pleased that she's not jackets and. Art so you've pointed out several flaws in this strategy but also some areas where it could make sense if he did improve trumps standing where certain segments the electorate let's move on to you. One out. Another strategy that clear your Eddie mention. Which is kind of in some ways repeating of the 2018 mid terms playbook where it vacancy opens up on the Supreme Court and that. Kind of pushes. You know Americans more towards their partisan corners and people who were thinking of switching sides Bibi don't anymore. So there is are some rumors about. Republicans lobbying one of the justices to step down in order to set up that opportunity. Is this. A strategy that has significant upsides. Is liable to happen and who wooded improved trumps art. I think it's that great strategy and so. Obviously we should note I think Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas may want to keep their lifetime jobs. In which they have lots of power and decide public policy so the first thing acting here is like you're seeing these conservatives floating the idea that maybe Alito. Or maybe Claire some as a ready to move mind. Item that's your that they wanted to do that they've I'm sure they enjoy these jobs so let's start with there but let's say that. Thomas is he's older he wants to be a team player he wants to help trump in some way. And so the media advantage of like a Supreme Court nomination is that it's sort of changes the issues that are being discussed. Right now we're talking about total bid. And racism and protests and none of those are great to arrange for Donald Trump he's not doing well and an environment but at the Supreme Court vacancy. The media will cover this story a lot. It'll probably take some of the coverage awful cove and hopefully not a lot but some of the covers off of coded so much covers up the protest. And Supreme Court nominations are you sure about abortion about affirmative action but issues where the parties are pretty. Well defined in what he will splits I think edges. A national turnout he more boulders for trump would have even as think it'll be India much easier summer for trumpet we're debating. You know whether Supreme Court nominee ex particularly if that person's a woman or person of color or both. Should yeah on the court then if we're debating if trump is handling coded. Morally or very portly. The thing up at though is what makes it. Tricky exit aisle Perry's point and also if you look at 2018 in the mid terms. You did see I mean obviously cabinet hearings where. Very singular event in some ways but. They clear. Bennett's immediate didn't it galvanized both sides right there was big you know there is a lot of excitement on the democratic side for saintly while. You know hell yeah out of it turned out now like strategists just nominated Brett cap and a we think is unanimous despicable person it's the year and vice Versa Republicans were happy happen. When you look at some of the the you know the the senate races shirt like that republic senate races are in the congressional races I think you'd don't clear results that it was. Beneficial for the Republicans and in some people people could say. It was like you know the beginning of an awakening for Democrats and the Supreme Court stuff matters can get our voters route up. I'd something there was like necessarily clear. Time. Benefit to that technique you could also see. Yet we very kind of have an idea of who the nominees would be. From. Teen drop. And I think a lot of those people me. The liberal base. And so you can see that that anger as motivation between on the it was a very powerful thing in politics so so it is. And opting not particularly clear cut. Yet we need to new weigh in on this in terms how big of an impact. Kavanagh appointment had on the 2018 mid terms did it actually and. It's not so clear I think. Would it Kennedy was pushed people. Toward the partisan corners is clear. Has been talking about. Which doesn't necessarily intrinsically help Republicans amid Republicans lost like. They enormous number of house seats obviously. They lost the popular for the house by nine points race he can have things be more polarized. If you're losing the house by nine points or in terms cases in a popular wrought by nine points then. Okay right in my change exactly who wins. A couple of states of the march and like it doesn't put you to give position overall on IP area like what. Mean first of all if you are. Alito and Thomas. And your concerned about the legacy of the conservative Supreme Court. You now facing a problem where. Dropped as an underdog to win reelection and so now you have to kind of hang on for at least another four years right. You know you wonder Fritz Bader Ginsburg which is a she had retired. Before that twists in election for example. So pure from that standpoint. Vendors that question of like maintaining a conservative majority on the Supreme Court but no I like Akron area like this is one of the few things that. That way become. Front page news mean you would displace. Cove it and the protests really quite as much coverage and maybe economy all three of which are just utterly terrible stories for for trying to. So the next possible strategy. That we can discuss. Seems like the strategy that trump is actually trying to you'd deploy eight given his speech at mount Rushmore over the weekend and that is to you. Put more emphasis on. Our culture war. Particularly over the nation's monuments and the role historical figures does that seem like a play book. That could work at this point. Clair like an ET PC culture wars message. I think what else. Will data. And also kind of you know creek this dynamic where I'm standing for the historical importance of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson and and that Democrats wanted to tear down the Jefferson. Yeah I'm not sure it's. It's it. Strategy or a message that it's you. New voters that you were talking earlier can't trump the slipping with. You know suburban women she could potentially. You know make an outreach to. Some groups that that like parts of sort of like the anti PC messaging but I'm not pitcher that you know is. Wines in this speech this weekend were about. You know. Indoctrination. Of children. In this certain ideology. Its rigid. Totalitarian ideology. I'm sure that those ideas. Our. The kind that broaden your appeal certainly. Do good things very year Acer chops. Base at the payment to do. There I think they're Wii is to have a conversation about. The quote unquote culture wars that are less divisive or less inflammatory. Trump is doing and I actually think you you do have potential inroads with. With voters to fuel BB alienated by the way that some Democrats high profile Democrats. Talk about race and culture in America. But I think the way he does it the way it comes off is is so dark is so sort of apocalyptic exceeding its oh. You know talking about Nazis and you know an authoritarian isn't it is quite extreme in and if you're if you're talking about you know stacks news right ticking down statues of confederate statues in particular. You know. Recent polling shows that Americans are coming around the idea that meet east these competitors statues yet should be taken down. So when trump makes a whole speech around saying we gotta get rid of them that's been. So I think right now this strategies is not like it's working. And as it looks like you know just because right now the polls show them. American people are with the protesters they support DL in more than ever. There in this moment where the electorate appears they've changed his views is an accent on racial issues you know weigh this against trump. And to some exit with the democrats' now debt dynamic acting could change though I would say it isn't UA's first is that. To trump right now is running as Joseph Biden and Adams are as great he's in the Atlantic this last week saying. You know like trump ran it sixteen against Hillary Clinton to some extent Barack Obama and those people were very easy to sort of label so the part of a changing culture you don't like. Joseph Biden's much harder to hit on net but IP key ship bottom Elizabeth Warren. Cowboy Harris Susan Rice or Stacy Abrams might be. Might make it a little easier for trump to like find a good target. Who's that resonates with people who sort of symbolizes what they don't lie and you were talking about race we're talking engineered I think if he gets a better target. That might help him out a little bit. And the second thing I think is really hard for trump right now but could change is. Right now his poll numbers are so bad. You can tell the media is much more comfortable describing him what the he's not excuse doesn't sound that much different I would argue that he did two years ago. But his poll numbers are freeing up people who were nervous about calling him that stuff before to say it much more bluntly. If he can't see if he goes up back to the forties and looks like he might win reelection again I don't know how to what happened. But I think if the economy gets better he cannot calls out a little bit is are just comments. I do think there's room if he gives more. More popular overall. In the media stops having everything he does in the blonde is terms possible. Then that might help him along as well to the culture war can't be one. If everything you do the culture war nobody wants to vote for somebody has called racist and an immediate use calling everything he does racist which I think in many cases true. That's going to make it heartened to make this kind of case. But I don't think that that I don't think that that's that terminology that description an immediate trump is going away even in this poll numbers rise Perry. I think that it'll continue. In part because. The media's largely white college educated and you see a lot of white college educated Americans. I mean from the what's it that the freeze at third around like the great awoke inning obviously particular. Demographics of white America liberal leaning college educated and I think that's that the media is and I think that there is some movement within the media to use that more blunt language. And even if times poll numbers go opt. I do think that it's that it's a bit more cultural strains in newspapers and magazines now to talk that way about trump act. I don't know even if his poll numbers top ten or 12% or something and it becomes super competitive race pistol and deeper and use those things. There's certain listing those to scriptures on the there's also. In. I know how inside baseball this is ripe and lot of reckoning. In the media over her. Over you know the diversity in newsrooms how issues around race. Are covered this affect every news including front thirty eight's. Revenue discussions. So I think that's also part of this but like look. I do you think there's been a change editing it's notable like Perry said that. The media is now more willing to be used terms like racists is that a racially charged. That a speech like the numbers were speech which. In certain ways is trying to. Tow a line. Between may be using. Implication not saying things quite outrage you know he can read different ways. It's now not being written a way that's favorable for trump at the same time. You have trump. You know. This morning for example the tweeting about. The NASCAR driver who. Was in his garage is a black NASCAR driver which is kind of a novelty right. And how there was that look like in news. Found in his garage and all the NASCAR drivers were very supportive of him right and trump is now clean how that's a hoax and how NASCAR screwed up. By. By trying to ban the confederate flag from being displayed at its races. That is pretty openly it's in very crude terms invoking race. And the confederacy right and so it's kind of like. I don't know right it's not as though trump is carefully trained relating to celebrating stuff right. I guess he's mad that like. There is as black driver who is a very courageous in some ways that. That kind of southern white people are supporting now I mean that must drive him crazy or something you know and I mean but to pretend that like there's any type of like. Discipline here. And have the ability for to follow up with a strategy which is just is kind of impulses. Which may be tortured you know I guess it's I guess it's not up to me to judge. What he believes inside certainly the manifestations of what trump says and does a lot and are things that I would call racist right arm and so. I don't know right. It's not like. Your. Even talking about. Some of Mike Nixon who was able to kind of keep the subtext of taxing kind of know what he's doing he may believe some very nasty things inside as well Nixon but like. But like he was a better. Arbitrator of political strategy I guess. Let me ask one thing to need and Claire and Galen to. I raised the idea that this campaign. The way trump is running now would be helpful to him it's Biden picked a black woman as a running mate deodorant that. It gives trump trump is like a reactive politician. And he you know peaking. He can bounce off of a new person in a different way and obviously like having. A person of color on the ticket is going to be off putting to a certain segment of people who some clues might be leaning towards Biden right now. But could be easily persuade its go back to turn out so. Yeah I mean also given. Try to hammer home the message that this person is the president kind of lying in wait rate he Barnes a transitional figure he's gonna rely heavily on whoever the vice president as the vice president might run in four years at a Republican I would say that openly especially if they think. The vice presidential candidate is less popular and so. It sounds like. What you're saying is that there are certain situations in which culture wore heels definitely do work to politicians favor but that you don't believe prompt and execute as well. So let's move on I think corruption. ST a few about the culture work stuff right it's almost like the reverse. Midas touch where like. Positions that might once have seemed extreme Urlacher verse over to window. On the left right now see more normal. Because the opposite in this trump and trump is so disliked. That you know you kind of north replies actually more extreme positions you know and I mean. I can imagine like people would have concerns about certain sat users something now that people actually about that she's right like. But if you're able to. Alex in any Republican keeps an audit. Here T sicker rubio all right Alison now like and put him in that position like. You can imagine making more effective than it would be able to kind of triangular. In certain ways writings say yes black lives matter but we also have to. Preserver heritage is comp is though it might be grave these people are going too far right. And then be seen as the reasonable position. But trump. Now that kind of trying to at a position you're like is it just kind of cover for like a racist position. Right because again the majority of voters in polls think our president. Is racist that was before the torch Floyd protest raised polls from a while ago that is numbers and since then and so. So he is a great deal trouble kind of actually persuading anyone. With his arguments on these issues. Are so let's move on and this kind of baby duck tails on the argument that you're making me. But the next. You know possible strategy would be. Somewhat haven't overhauls. Both economic and Covert nineteen related policies. You know are meaty yet really aggressive on combating the corona virus and pumping stimulus dollars into the economy. Is this. A viable. Or maybe it's unrealistic but is this a strategy that would improve. Republican party's lock. This fall. Yes if trump govern like a normal Republican will absolutely that would help but it also puts it Disco Hitler. It's also the easiest thing to do. And united it is not to say that this is not see that fighting. Corona viruses and ED thing but it's it is relatively it is relatively more simple to even outside of trump. Just making more structural changes within the White House in the tasks for task force and public messaging. These are things well within. The grass and some might say. The expectation. That an American public has for its leadership just just that they are bonds. Yes I just think being like a normal president in the middle of this crisis would obviously. Be helpful to him Clarence it is easy I mean. It would be easy for someone other than Donald. But David it's like it's a reality of it is the hardest thing to imagine that we decide I think it's much more likely to you disrupt U. But Clarence Thomas Supreme Court that is gets trumped to behave normally and it voted ninety but I agree this is by far. The most optimal strategy I do think it by harvest McConnell. I would try to get trump to approve more unemployment benefits like that there are things that help the economy. Did that we probably need to do connecting to trump may not be against and in some ways that accidentally or the Republican congress. Maybe oppose some of those things like X extending. The increase unemployment benefits. May be a place or like having more relief funds there's probably a place in the economic stuff where. A more populist economic plan might help and that's a place where my guess is tropics he might before that. And the Republicans and McConnell might you against that and they might in this way be holding him back a tiny bit I don't know. Because I don't really know what Trump's views on policy issues are. And they tend to evolve up but I think there is a place where. I think he could see him doing Morgan the economic front in terms of like handling Covert better I think we know that ship is far sale now. I just the inverse of this question is kind of would any president be doing portly under these. Circumstances with Corbett nineteen add an economy where 11% of Americans are unemployed. Act there's just a lot of anxiety about what. Cobb look at Cuomo in New York. Bright New York has had a huge number of deaths. Obviously the economy is tanked here to. Cuomo who was perceived and I think was. A this visible. Pro active. Leader and people liked that now hindsight being twenty money we sees. Mistakes right where me as particularly with nursing homes and that's something that's mama's relief. Getting a lot flak for now but but he was perceived to be. A strong and visible leader. I think that. There is opportunity and some of the economics south Patton. Notes to make to make pathways an ending that's probably tramps like mr. it's it is Tony sixteen instincts towards populism. But yeah I think you know surety answer is yes you could have a leader who did. That's a look and Nina I think personal worldwide there are a lot of leaders who have become more popular because they're responsive to the current virus in fact it's. In the more common pattern actually. And of course most countries have. Responded better or at least some ways it seem more reassuring incoherent writers like both the kind of objective fact the US response. Has not come well and the fact that like there's no coherent. Message right. But look yeah it if there is some scenario. If we wake up on November 4 and trump has won reelection. Then I would think the most likely reason it is ms. because of a turnaround. In the corona virus numbers. Or other data related to corona virus right winner. You know let's say that the south and the west get through this current phase but what can imagine that by the fall. That looks like memory we could have a second leave it there waiver whenever in the winter but that's not relevant election right it could look by the fall. Like we've been through the worst of it the numbers are following. That the death rate in particular. Is falling because fewer people this new kind of sort of cases seem to be. Seem to be dying right. And you know there are some treatments now that further. Lower risk there is promising news. About vaccines. And the economy now peoples are more comfortable they're coming back little bit mean mercenaries can drop we're. Where that happens. Which truncate credit for it I don't know right if a 150000. Americans have died or 170000. But the numbers are down alive by November Willie get credit for eight I tend to think now at a time. Is special it seems like that progress is happening. Despite him and not because of him. But there is uncertainty in the Kobe outlook. And some of those scenarios could benefit. Trump. Yet but I mean even given that do you know when people talk about presidential election I broke the law on the economy. You know is it realistic to think that any. Data president card. Win re election with 11% unemployment and then just the general economic anxiety that's hear me I know you've been doing research into economic data elections. Working on the model right now. And just that deed alone looks pretty grim regardless of who the president has right. Yeah I I I am I mean although economic forecasters still do you predict a rebound although it's not clear. Would assumptions are making about the corona virus right if you assume that we're through the worst of it. By may then OK you start to rebound to be more secure by November obviously. We were not for the worst of it. By may or at least half the country wasn't half as having the worst of it now right. They're probably still is time. By November right if this were August or September be different you know early July it probably is still time for. Things to improve significantly by November. By Yao look at mean. This is gonna be we look actually at all economic elected dating back to eighteen needing unique and even under your victims scenarios this is going to be one of the four or five worst economies for any. President since 1980. And by the way. Some of the stimulus money will start to run out right and like Perry said I think like. You know I would want to get as much stimulus money into the hands of as many people as possible if I were come. Where Republican right the fact that Democrats seem fairly willing to do this. Is like giving you like you know free ways to create they were their constituents and so there's some like Republican. Deficit spending heard you know. Anti egalitarian ideology it's permitting that that picture. Electoral suicide. I think. So yeah I mean I'd be the first thing I do this empty all the stimulus money. That we have politics in that for another three months right. While these cases that have not gone down in the south are getting resolved. So let's talk about or rather sinister strategy that. To some degree it seems like the Republican Party could be used during and that is. Basically. Messed with the election. So tried to implement voting restrictions in short that not everyone has the opportunity to broker a nail which is something that has been very outspoken about already. Generally attacked institutions potentially. Euro. Credible reports have said that president as party asked foreign powers to influence in the election. To influence the election. So you know I mean how realistic of a strategy is this generally messing with things to try to win we ought. It's super realistic it's RD happening it's going to be a big part of the next four months or however law have to go. And I think it happens on different inning as you laid out in their different. Very different things that fall under that same. You know headline but you know the RNC in the trump campaign. Even before her unit we're gonna have a vote by mail pandemic great error. RD a lot of lawsuits about voting rules they were aren't the you know. In there's already that they restarted the desire to hire a lot of people to be poll watchers which is historically at Mary. Racially motivated way of suppressing votes the Paul so it's a big part of this year's election. In part because of just the uncertain state of probability will happen in November would set a million times on the spot cats we don't know what the state of cope in nineteen will be like in November throughout the country although the more we know about the virus the army know that it's. Really got inside and more people are going to be inside no matter so. So so that there is a lot of and uncertainty and it into into all of this and I think the idea of trump. For the past four years so it ends uncertainty. Into people's. Nine to about. The election system and fraud industry is really damaging and in fact kind of hands and in the obvious in the air air and Aaron. You know fake trolls and pull the box and all that stuff there's a lot of there's a lot of fertile ground for for people feeling discouraged by the system and therefore not wanting to so that's Austin active. Way. Getting up messing with with the system. Let me analysts say is is that elect selects. American elections are run the state level not the federal level and so. A lot of efforts to like make it harder to vote by mail or in Texas weather you they're all evil by mail if you're over 65 but not understood the violence obviously against as the Republicans. The one thing I think anybody's feelings are problematic ankle and I'm gonna happen. I would say though that the state level. As it becomes more or normalize. The idea that trump is probably going to lose. And if he is down seven or eight points as we get near the election. And people are talking about what's happens post trump. Why chop loss and so on. I think Yuri instead of you're the secretary of state in your Republican in Arizona. Two candidates used things that are going to may be helped trump win but probably won't give him over the line anyway and are to be very controversial. GU attacked a lot and to be held it helped hurt your career going forward. I think you're incentives that might be going damn much I think trump himself. He's speaking more about the idea that he might lose in like why this unfair and in some ways he's. In self weirdly sort of normalizing the idea that he might lose don't expect him due and so I think if the Republicans in these states who run the election system. I think may have lower incentives to do things that I think are nefarious. Then they would have if the election is really really close medium Rama the that's my only thing that I feel that's may be different than as few months ago. Yet that's fair but you know at Perry brings up the idea that the idea the fact that. Our country had is. You know non centralized elections of state run election state run election. And good in many ways because. It in this is imminent move into a point about. Packing in the election and absolutely we know from temple was book that term this is potentially been soliciting other countries to inner ears. The fact that our system is decentralize is good in a lot of ways because he couldn't quote like half. The entire election you couldn't you know earlier way into one spot you know in in. In an NSA computer something answer orbiting off. But because states are responsible for running their own elections youth you find a lot of really desperate cyber security means so. Alabama is online voter registration portal might be complete whereas California's is amazing really. Technologically tight at a California actually does have a pretty good history. Secretary in voting and this remains a huge problem I think that the Russians got into the act and something like sixteen online voter registration systems and in Elliott 2016. They didn't do any thing buy it. That kind of like let it be known that they were there so. You know it. The idea that different states have different systems and this cyber security and frankly just like that human. Air involved with elections huge boost air gap election machines a lot of states don't necessarily. Do that restrictive strictest possible way to there are still a lot of opportunities for. You know not to mr. Daley changed votes but to disenfranchise people write your name if if your information on your. Voter registration doesn't match Yankee that you present at the polling place while it might be given a provisional Balladur you know. You might not be able to give you might not be given the opportunity of and that kind of causes a whole bunches. The downing of facts so so so this is the real worry that I think is like talked about let's this year just because. It's the stuff. Yeah. I mean this is the question that we get a law wrong listeners who ask about the facts that. General weighs various ways of messing with the election card backed its results knee I'm curious I mean do you think it. Any of the things we've discussed here are serious enough that you would think about it out the possibility for changing the result of the auction. I think is are really difficult question. Vick is there are things I have. Permanent effects and things have short lived effects right I mean the fact is that Republicans have generally try to make it harder. For the sorts of people who. Are less inclined at a Republican especially people of color to vote right. And it's back and forth because people want going to be easy in and every governor every secretive secretary of state is different. Now what. In the short run. If there is a lot of concern about making it tough for some and a vote that can motivate people to be more conscientious about making sure that they do you have. Multiple plants of vote. So the short run. Voter suppression. May be counter acted by activating voters' right. In the long run it kind of is different and it can get baked in and be one of the barriers that you just. Face that you have to kind of make a plan if here. African American anyplace with credit precincts to vote right it's not as simple as just saying arms and go to my policing to me enough to wait for claimants. And but you know no big deal right. So there's like a cumulative effect I think probably has. Potentially fairly big effects on the electorate the marginal effect at any one year. Is a lot more debatable. And then there you know and then there's kind of like not always a fine line between. The fact if things are kind of big and obvious like lines for example. Like the fact that. The in most states. Felons. Can't vote. And that utes leads to a huge amount. I'm disenfranchisement. Of African Americans and some states and other minority groups. Like these things have pretty big effects right but like. If you kind of kind of then go from that to like this notion that oh. The GOP will steal the election somehow mean that becomes like I become a lot more complicated. And that terminology can kind of substitute for more. Precise claims that can then be kind is assessed and evaluated. Select the thrust in the right direction only bit then. You have to watch the specificity of what you're kind of saying is happening you have to kind of distinguish that it the short run from the long run impact. A lot of. But think about mariners of the topic I know we're gonna come back here over the next four months but I don't want to lax. This podcast and without bringing up another possibility for hoping out Republicans. The in afternoon run their fortunes this fall and also a hot topic over the weekend which is me. I famous third party candidate who may. Reach a write in campaign. And whether or not Packard have some effects on the auction of course referring to your Kanye West announcing he is going to run for president. I note that as members of the media we should be careful about how much legitimacy we even give to this announcement. We have seen different last but before review go ride you wanna hear your thoughts on how this could it affect the. So when he eighteen poll from Uga from 2018 they just put this on line just now. 69%. Of Democrats have an unfavorable view of kind US. 13% of a favorable or favorable view. Fifty to rescind an independence and unfavorable view of kind US 13% a favorable view among Republicans. 34%. Favorable. 42%. Unfavorable solicitous work they can up there are a lot of the coverage will assume kind he wears his black against black vote. But it might be worth speaking about his kind he wins have more appeal to Republicans. Tend to black people in their for Democrats. I mean I think I'm a little bit of the attitude of like I can't believe. Ward talk like we're talking and you ethics Ayman texting here's Adam on this weekend which is like. Not just kinda actually running for president next did not reply and that's kind of how I feel in general. Look Chinese music. Ultra light beam them like the Pablo was like the soundtrack to that between sixteen primaries in my head. But using it always serious candidate but congrats to him forward. Continuing to use. Being. I don't relatively I don't think Jen disease like Scania all mean there after calling beyonce moms I don't know what they think about kind day. Like I just I now meaning Chris Jenner also had a hand in this flick act it's been some kid some PR conspiracy theories about but. Like like is keeping up the crash scenes up. Yet he also faces. Logistical challenges in that the ballot deadline for independence has. Passed in a handle seas of curricula throats between them. It will soon pass and a number overseas future a lot of signatures very quickly right. So it's not so easy to just kind of run for president right that means something. You know he's not filed any statement of cancer at the that are elections commission as far as we're where as of Monday. Early afternoon so I don't know I yeah I guess I don't know writing. Writing camp. Galen Mueller. This someone to be here yet I really think it matters are adamant. And also they have just like total to go away black voters right like you look at nearest polling like we've inciting on like. Would you believe Kanye West as a politician. Who he appeals to it is a pretty outspoken. Trump supporter right so like. I don't know I don't even owe it to the extent people have to be stupid hot takes an holiday weekend right. Like I know whether Patrick as well he'll take the black vote from from Biden right I mean why wouldn't take like. I've matured a preakness. The bodice and a white people who wanted to demonstrate that. It from is racist right. You know. I think that's a vote that may be he. People like and aren't like from but I want to you can actually took the system and it just not at all obvious to me kind of if you got 1% of the vote or 2% of the vote as a write in its not at all obvious to me kind of weird that win. We'd come from necessarily. Right. Because so like all sport for Biden it still appears. A huge amount of enthusiasm for Biden anyway right it's that light people understand that like if you don't want trump. And there's a lot of these as an against trump right. That Biden is the best ways to facilitate that. I don't know I think people might still still get that. I just the one thing that I want to say Gayle forward closes. I gather that kind EA has decided. Trump is too racist to support is so recent like this what is sauce but Chinese politics as I mean that maybe don't about Chinese politics. But is if there is a small number of black Republicans. Who have been with trump these last four years and I do. I would write it's a little but I do wonder if this if maybe these last six weeks. Are gonna show trump going from like 10%. Of her black people to like 6%. It doesn't like it kindly Camby was trump anymore hoops candy was dropped may be MTV tiniest political views too much series is that I do what it does assign. Did very few black and one appear in public with trump in the future. Even people who used to like him medium with the navy's win over the line in the last three weeks. It's yeah I mean this is I see it as seriously. I think it's also just a reflection of like Connie Stanley was in embarrassed by his trap support that was pretty interest clear in a lot of ways like. You mean like his family and he liked him are you mean like since. His wife wouldn't that Kim grabs again. I think in the family seems Wile while she is obviously worked with trump I think. They were believed the hosted some answers Hillary Clinton fund raising their they would bury at least don't needed. Ice in that there's and the conversations happening in the background and yes Hampshire like. The George Floyd stuff. Route Connie up. But I do you think you'd like if we're taking Chinese politics seriously which like everywhere. People are idiosyncratic and there which take people's I'll politics seriously because what. Any kind of like in this weird space between contrary in his them and patently wooed spirituality when it comes to politics. So. I think it's more just like. Eat it is a China I have to admit also I have one more thing on the west of things that Republicans could do to turn that walk around. And it was Trump's resignation. And I I understand that I don't think anybody thinks that's realistic. Would return Republicans lie around. I don't think and so would you know I active. Didn't disparage you give parents Kirk Healy despite gifts and I would say if the candidates pence I don't think it helps a lot. But it probably helps bag I mean. I do think right now trump is in the way he's behaving. Is like Vieri sub optimal kuwaitis talk with a confederate flag to lead the way he'd like he is up throats. To coded and race is problematic in no way that I don't think even might canceled approximate. I think like a Nikki Haley would obviously better so yes if the Republicans can like give him off the ticketing gets many normal in there. I can't say that I think that would I don't think they would lose the election by less than they are planned nineties heartbeat imagine he's sort of normal Republican beat down TN. Maybe they're down seven. So I think this right but I mean the civil war in the Republican Party. That it would take to get trump bought the ticket may be means that I. And get a backtrack a little bit and say maybe that's not work him but I do think a normal candidate will be better than try operating is that controversial even. Could be because that means you met what you're seeing maybe now his basis is spirited him like it when artists like okay. I'm while terms trump well I might as well go with the other party in the attic apartment has Biden is is kind news. Generic Democrat right. The way that might work is if is it what's of the nominee or some more laughed ritzy it was Warren or Sanders. And there are a lot of voters are proportionate to be way ahead like Biden is frankly right and Iraqi lot of voters were like you know it. This is a bridge too far for me become has been so bad like and after over Bernie Sanders even on kind of a sinner right you know whatever. Lawyers something. You know I think those people might be thrilled. To vote for or. A parent Sarah Haley right now I think if the alternatives by that you like you know it Republicans canister the sub so badly. I'm cinema for Biden anyway he's kind of a centrist and a contrast and then go Republican for congress maybe. So a total resignation you're saying we're not necessarily all Republicans it would dampen the enthusiasm among and it's like. It increases the hail Mary it might help them a little bit. In congress. All right while as a place for us leave this. Blues guy and brainstorm session how Republicans can turn it fortunes around from while. Anyone have any other wild crazy ideas they want proffer before we close. I may escalate thing that they can that is the alternatives does Biden's Russell. And I don't see listeners and he's running a good kind of in the basement has become a cliche he actually does a lot of speeches are these but I think the question is like. It is something biting to do wrong and tenacity as the president of sort of alternative theory cutting Jessica. I just does not also showed us that something Republicans can control right mr. And they can't control how they try to shape the public's view of him which is maybe. Something that we didn't talk to right here at the strategy but it's like me be changed their attack. Our plans I don't know if there's anything they give up ten points but. Anyway I get a good place to to weakness at the CUNY. Thank you Galen. Thank you cleric thinks. And that there. My name is due entered Tony chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us. At podcast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If your fan of the show leaders are reading a review in the apple pot house or where tell someone about us thanks for listening annals. I. I.
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