Nate Silver: Trump's chances of victory have doubled since last debate

In this Election Update video, Nate Silver considers what impact Hillary Clinton's latest email news is having on the polls, and notes what data he most wants to see before election day.
1:29 | 06/25/18

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Transcript for Nate Silver: Trump's chances of victory have doubled since last debate
Hey this is day you're watching an election update at six based ago before the election. And Hillary Clinton has. About a 70% chance of winning the election according to our forecast of course if you watch these things costly now we have two models. They've converged though basically polls only has Clinton at about 71%. Polls plus 69%. So let's just use a big round number and say 70%. Instead you know we've seen a steady. And fairly slow decline for Clinton are forecast over the past two weeks roughly it's not clear if the FBI story in particular. Contributed to that. It is Wednesday now five days removed from the stories he. Probably haven't updated and it's mostly priced in but Donald Trump has increases chances considerably he's about 30% now. Two weeks ago. 1515%. Instead so you have seen meaningful tightening. In the race if you're really waiting to see though is that most of this notion that the race is tightening is coming from. From national polls national tracking polls and so forth. It also from. Online. An automated state polls which provide some information we're probably not the gold standard but were holding out hope that at least in some states like Pennsylvania. Michigan Wisconsin Colorado we don't frankly have enough polls that will get a lot more over the remaining days and.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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