Transcript for Is the presidential election over? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
I'm me. Hello there are human years as you may have seen in our most recent videos. Joseph Biden ST the pencil me yet. We describe it there's not a security any path back for the prices and eating pretzels and we want to point out. Why that is in terms of where outstanding vote it's rob. And also talk about some of the other states and where they're trying to answer your community that is organizing director Colin America. Yeah did do it again so what's accurate in Pennsylvania Biden is currently mediating by around 5500. Votes. There are around a 145000. Outstanding. What's awkward those ballots what former cast and what are they from you know all us. Yes this is largely consistent story with what we've been saying over the past couple days. The outstanding. Is predominately. Mail ballots and predominately from Allegheny Allegheny County with Pittsburgh and Philly. With terror democratic stronghold write him gently much more than that. The result is you're getting kind of be. Both democratic of the democratic votes. And so that's why we always thought. But it would close the gap with drop in Pennsylvania and eventually overtake him and that's why we think now. That buys mostly likely continues there and. What about provisional ballots war overseas military ballots I noted there's a candidacy process beyond just. The male votes that were used by November hurt. You know collecting any other out that are out there are we thinking about. That process plays out will be perhaps there's. And it took provisional ballots overseas ballots are are more likely. Do you factor if they are state like Georgia where the race is much tighter. I am. From you know overseas ballots for example include military. Ballots. Which tends Republican but they also include just acts that right and they tend to lean. Democratic so there's not a particular reason. To think that those that that sort of batch of ballots full swing things one way or the other. And it and in Pennsylvania. There's likely not enough of them. To really Alter the basic calculus there. Let's talk about Georgia Biden's currently leading there by all around a thousand votes. How do we expect that's where we've been pretty clear on Pennsylvania does not appear to be at halfback for the president given that. We expect outs and house overwhelmingly democratic. Are there moreover democratic or Republican ballots like the ballots coming in Georgia. In Georgia we think most most of the outstanding and and of course is less than Massa is still from some metro Atlanta. M and the surrounding area so it so it's still likely to be democratically and Biden overtook trump there over night. It's really close it's unlikely that body and will end up leading there by more then you're not have to set percentage point. That we probably not more than one person went in other words. I don't think we're gonna get projection from the networks in Georgia because its system be so close there may tend not to do objection at this within one percentage point. As opposed Pennsylvania. Where where people see project. Right yeah I mean has been talking on the live blog about the end margin there somewhere in the range of we points. Doesn't seem like much. Could change in the president's favorite I just checked it looks like there around 5000 ballots estimated its outstanding or so basically no matter how those. Heart's content are more likely at ports even a recount in Georgia are closed or. Yeah I'd act like George in the same market has as Wisconsin right where we might end up a scenario where Biden is apparently quote unquote. But where lifted its within the margin where we might that a recount in Wisconsin. It's within the margin where trump campaign can request of the trap recount which they have but they have to pay for it. George will likely end up in smaller similar territory. Yeah Martin and what's not and I believe is Iraq half a percentage point or 20000. Votes. What about Arizona and Nevada and we been watching misty Nevada has. Released their ballot count are quite a particular schedules. Something similar has happened in Arizona are we expecting any projections and amnesty again. Mean I'm sort of much less confident about what that what the picture looks like those states and in Nevada we think. Most of the outstanding this from Clark County where they guess is that's likely to be democratic. There's not a particular reason that thing. Trump will overtake Biden there. And that's similar. Edge picture in Arizona where most of the outstanding it's in Maricopa County. Where Phoenix's. But. You know. I think there's more uncertainty in states that statement. And of course work and that none of those it's not. It is projected. Well why. I didn't Garrity speeding they may well matter by four to seven game. Are. No it doesn't matter terms. You know. And secured to and its electoral votes I didn't think and I don't know we want to get into this that it and just how how contentious and contested the integrity of this election has then. If your body campaign. Acting your whole game. Dad Nevada Harris. George. All end up senior category in addition to Pennsylvania. Because it then. You know that's that's much more sort of broke Boston victory I think a lot of people clawed. We were heading towards Tuesday night right and he gets spied and I think a little bit more room to maneuver once he gets in the White House. Yeah. The you know sequence right what's the vote counted has shaped so much of the reception area surrounding election. And also just polling act DIA general. I'm curious if we're time. And more results people will change their actions or an error out this race so far but something. Men think they should write like. Yet when it's also were worried that we're headed towards a place winners and polygamy. Porter. The polling. Acts. It's pretty good. Oh yeah eight at night. It looks like we're gonna end up in a place where some state polls we're pretty. Some state polls were betting that. Him and certainly if you look at my. How Republicans. Are are trending in house races. Him. They are vastly over performing well generic congressional pouch so right so I think it's like. It's not quite a decade. Polling debacle that's not that a correct path mind. But I actually think you know up. In specific cases there are more problems with the polls this year than in 2016 certainly but it it's at its. It's just a nuanced picture and we really really really have to wait for all the votes to come before we can kind of injury that sage. Advice right now are there let's leave it actually are more updates throughout the date but thanks for. Things done. Angela Watson has yet and it also made sure follows on the live blog as we will be keeping track any you know projections. Year the.
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