Transcript for If Rep. Liz Cheney doesn’t have a home in the GOP, who does?
Full disclosure there is some skepticism on the crew for weapons treaty worked. At that. Second. Too much enthusiasm through much of him. But they think told me to be air energetic. Hello and welcome to the 538 politics podcasts are normal hosting and Patrick is out this week compact 38 managing editor Mike to come and filling in. We got two segments this week to start. This seemingly imminent ousting represented if Liz Cheney of Wyoming currently the number three Republican in the house. If you were looking for symbolically rich drama encapsulated in the fight over what the Republican Party should be well you've got. Cheney is the daughter of former vice president after all at one time these she was really the establishment to establishment. But Cheney has repeatedly criticized former president Donald Trump. And pushed back on his life at the 20/20 election was stolen from. Republicans in the house as early as this week look likely to vote her out leadership. We'll discuss whether there's room for Cheney type Republicans in the modern Republican Party. And we're gonna do this via a trivia game get excited people. Second. We'll discuss the latest round of voting restrictions instituted by state level Republicans. Governor Ron dissent that's at Florida sign new voting restrictions into law last week. Florida as a perennial battleground of course from that trump won it by about three percentage points and me. It's also just the latest Republican controlled state following Georgia Montana Iowa. To impose new hurdles to casting a ballot after November's elections. And it won't be the last. We'll talk about what the Florida legislation does among talk about these raft applause general. But first here with me to talk about all that 538. Political reporter Alex and meals welcome acts. Adding I can count my blessings are. It's Canada and is who's listening the human and it's been so great that our seem less seamless it's up. Also with me at 538 elections analysts Nathaniel rate detain them. Haig. Might. You know and finally a voice actor on the Simpsons may still there are welcome me. All right guys. You know having an innocence and sounds like me. An. It's because you don't oppose. My vocal talent now on ten yep for those of you dominate it Phyllis and out quickly and what you did. So I was approached by the Simpsons Shillue that. You know I watched ever since I was a kid basically and they. Featured an EMI ABC news colleague George Stephanopoulos in. An episode about Lisa Simpson. Becoming president so I you know broke down her demographics gave her various ads native Joker to encourage you all to watch it. It was a little bit I. Watching myself on TV. So it's like even more nerve racking. To watch. The portrayal yourself on the Simpsons it was you know flattering enough as with some friends they ordered like don't effort is certain everything. Yak don't go watch the program that gives a huge about it. If I 38 to. Nate Silver analyzes. Well George Lisa is doing great with disenchanted daughters also tiger moms checked out dads and grandparents who like everything plus middle children original ages and sex opponents above second chair. Now it's which before the election but what the hell I'm comment for at least that might work here is done. Very well done applause. Michaels Astec Michael. There's. But let's get into first up is there room for his change in the modern Republican Party. So that the senate that represented at Liz Cheney of Miami looks likely to be ousted from number three position. In the Cheney voted to impeach trial on charges inciting the January 6 and direction. And has already survived one particular. In the time since that last. Cheney its continued to push back on false claims that there was widespread fraud in the election. And she's pushed for a commission to investigate Dejan oasis capital insurrection. This time unlike last time it looks like other members of the GOP leadership want her out. House Minority Leader McCarty is reportedly quote. Concerned about her ability to carry out the job as conference chair to carry out the message and and McCartney has actually endorsed represented at least upon the New York to replace or big question for today is is there room for change type Republicans in the modern GOP. As I said we're gonna go out this little sideways and try to answer that he would tree. This is a special trip. Sure will include a couple questions with clear objective answers. But we'll also include just frankly open ended subjective questions and I'll simply decide what the right answer it's. Sound equipment. You can't hear it but there's just three skeptical bases on this isn't ready Berry. Very biased. The highest in about my life I don't agree that OK let's get in tennis. There's going to be some questions in total including two to park auctions. Whoever gets the most right when this special missed reprise that over the ought yet. Before we begin though I do want to just take thirty seconds quickly describe what we mean by Liz Cheney. Republican. To Nate can you just can you just give us. But quick elevator pitch definition of that well I would. Think you're kind of a a spark up when you pick a conservative. Republican that's kind of they hold out her left over from like the bush. Cheney era of republicanism. But two is not on board with the notion that election was still what I would call the big lie. And is not on border with some of the excesses of Donald Trump. I think it's important. Not to define. A it was cheer public is looking moderate Republican that something very different she's not. Moderate she's quite conservative at least by the playing field that like. Democrats Republicans kind of fought over in the pretrial air but she's trump skeptical and a critic of the big why. Park let's I didn't teller trivia game Bergen and started off with an objective question to partner both parts are worth one point this has really kind of warm up. First. According to a recent Q serve. What share self identified Republicans. And Republican leaning voters. Said trump should be permanently banned from social media sites. Following that January 6 insurrection at the US capitol. Knee Uga first. Of Republican central permanently banned self identified Republicans and Republican leaning voters. 26. Person. Alex. 7%. That day in hell. Two yeah I think Tony sixes race you high and deciding whether ago. Just about her just below Alex Nam. I don't go below say 6%. Okay and the correct answer is. 11%. Outlets you win closest. Very nice. What an honor can I just put out. Other benefits of this gigantic gap between seven and 26 and he chose to go lower just. Strategically. Quote towards strategy you're not ever I is right breakage. I'm in my first thought was that it would be like. 3%. News airy very so that's now the waiting for me was the on the outside. And so. Forget movement and asked the podcast. Alex you have one point let's go before we talk about this little let's go to the second part of this two part question. Same poll people. Same question. But what share of self identified Republicans and Republican cleaners who also identified as moderate or liberal. Said trump should be permanently banned from social media sites. We'll go in reverse order this. Thompson and your first. Call small sample on this question. Is going to be like two respondents. That. I analysts say 30%. 30%. Alex. 42%. But was Rickie she's answered. They're adding thirty. Twin nine. Finally nine and the correct answer is. 23%. And me get the point they're using that prices right strategy. So basically we have about. One in ten Republicans support trumping so. Permanently banned from social sites. And only about one for even a moderate liberal Republicans. Support that. Does this tell us anything about that anti trump appetite among Republicans are which is just a dumb trivia question to include. I mean. It's I would lean more toward the latter it. It says it aired by argument if I'd look up for questions that. Showed some commitment. Some date Republicans who would support some action. To distance the party from trump rapid of that than just approved or disparate. Howitzer and I think your your buying that he felt like these numbers. Show us anything or we should just move on. And Inca channeling that stands as a down champion action. In Q did a great job there if you think it kind of says that there is no. Appetite to move on from trump as them and their Republican Party I think he. Has a very solid hold on Republicans. The most conservative Republicans need in the more liberal or moderate Republicans to in some cases. I'll give my dad that benefited out here and say that period assuming. Assuming that it's not an Aaron like weirdness is a small sample size which I think there might be a bit like it does say somebody and saying that like. The make identifying as a Republican these days is to identify as a transporter and like maybe there are. You know a not insignificant number of those people who are. Bomb you know because I'll be CIA com and now it's not that the number action all of us right up that the number of liberal moderate Republicans who support any Twitter. Are banning trump from Twitter would be higher. Com and maybe shows that. You know that like I'd there can be like some people who are trumped fans but still identify ideologically. As moderate area liberal because maybe this sport. You know expanding Medicaid or something like that Tom it and but that the doesn't necessarily to it shows have be coupled ideology is from from trump as them. I think it's kind of circular is is there Republicans in the Republican Party has kind of been defined by. By Donald Trump right in the number of Americans identify as Republican. It's a relatively small group about 26%. Rejected pleas percent. In ways Gallup poll sponsored between. 24 and 26 from Gallup and sentenced poll every month that's down from. Tween nine or thirty as it was through most of what the trump presidency so like you know we're not talking about. About that many people necessarily we conditioned on being a Republican. You're fine by kind of allegiance to a party then. Those people mostly still like trump and it they're gonna break from prom then there's a slowing a fast way I suppose you I think you'd say it right. You know the fast window if you ever gonna like say OK time pre clean break with trump usually when a party was. Presidential election. Then. You know Democrats don't want to have a lot he was John Kerry or Hillary Clinton. After their respective losses and problems also learn that this time over time round losing the senate report was very helpful and then you cash it. On January 6 right I mean. They had plenty of good excuses. For breaking with prop. And they and they chose not to use of the probably not gonna do right now over over social media. Yours. Next trivia question this is a subjective one and also full disclosure listeners and viewers like a shared this one with with the team in advance and they from time to think about it. What was the biggest turning point. In terms of the evolution of the modern Republican Party. Over the last thirty years Nathaniel buying kicks off my head to decent thinking about mine. Mexico's answer was actually thirty years ago has are all terribly old and kindness the teacher but. Nam I am going to say the this kind is. 94 to 98 period if I can define and a little bit broadly. Basically the rise of Newt Gingrich the 1994 mid term auctions that. So cattle lot of moderate Democrats and brought Newt Gingrich to power. And then of course in 1998 you know he kind of went full throttle one and attempted to impeach. President Clinton. Om and I think that. The used changes. Really brought about an attitude shift. I remember that. Gingrich replaced. I think his name has popped my each child craft that's aren't gonna Francis name that he was a much more moderate but work with the Democrats type of Republican leader and Gingrich took this. Much more antagonistic approach that painted. Democrats as the enemy. And I think then that really was a turning point for a lot of the polarization EC and that has culminated in many ways with but the trauma care. Attitude shift as it is an important phrase I think that's a good answer Alex. You're next. I'm have a cop an answer and essay trumped in trumpets. I mean we're basically in world right now where. Whether or not you're a conservative or your excepted in Republican circles as if you are willing to lie in undermine democracy and I don't think we've ever. And in this place before and trump knows that Republican allies. Won't its push back against his language even when it's racist or inflammatory and it's a do he can either attack and publicly. I'm in those who have tried to stand up to him have either boxer elections campaigns. He retired or there. Sort of Liz Cheney in on the outs with their party so I would say look we're going through now is probably the biggest turning point for the GOP. Great answer Nate. Yes Alex is answers clearly right it's trump. You could debate whether through. Winning the nomination or whether it's from becoming president right in you could debate what was a pivotal moment that sequence right but light. People are over thinking this I think right I think. Trump has agency he personally if he had not for whatever reasons I have to run in 2015. I do not think that you can be the same place right now he had been. Eliminated early on in the primary. I think I think the GOP would be the same place right now they might. I mean bureaus and she's with racism and then. Modern and then at some water or it's not a Republican Party keeps questionnaire for now right. But like this kind of openly authoritarian anti democratic streak I think goes back to trumpet truck bed. Conceded the election I don't know that we be in the same place and some of the stuff right now meters so I give. Agency. Before I before I render my verdict Nathaniel outlining any rebuttal to that and it argument. On and I think I think that's certainly the other obvious choice Tom and I agree with everything that they sad and I think if the question is you know what what if them we're talking about the but the modern GOP is in the context. Liz Cheney getting kicked off her out of Republican leadership. Four. Being opposed to town trumpet and a very literal sense obviously the Republican Party wouldn't be the party of trump in particular. Right now if if not for his his election. And so this I think that it's completely Al Ansar but I think that the seeds for that. Worst sound in Ian earlier you know I wrote this article with our honor knowing him and yet about. How Republicans have kind of become increasingly authoritarian. In in the recent decades and I do think that that pre seats trump on because he's seen that in state legislatures as well. I think that's right however the correct answer is trop point goes to Alex. I think that then your right to identify there there are a lot of pre existing trends that that trump tapped into that trump. You know exaggerated. That trump exemplified. Com. But the difference is enough in degrees where I think it's it's a category shift and it in terms of just straight up anti democratic behavior I think we asking them. New things so point goes out let me totally conceded that round. It you can extra and that didn't so. Now Alex gave the answer perks and asked if people. The score at the car at least. That could I didn't senator like lies about about like not agree with my colleagues cancers. Can we can make this instructive I have zero points right now so you know what I think this game is rigged I think this is involves a false games so I'm not can accept their results the election and neat has an interest in joining me as well so they go we've just turned to the effect thirty politics by cast in two the bottom of the. That's getting this at getting into the yeah thank you. The great game and picked this score as a currently stands Alex to me one Nathaniel hero. Next question. Questions point five actually another objective one another to partner this one also comes from pew. Poll done in March 1. What share of republic and Republican donors sent their parties should be very or somewhat. Accepting of elected officials. Who disagree with their party ounce on important issues should be accepting. Yet they said should be quote very close somewhat accepting of officials disagree. 44%. Nate. Thirty 5%. Nathaniel. I actually read this article before because Mike sentiment among many things as. The preparation for podcast and it was I want sailor 72 but it may have been 62 so I'll just say. Like sixty with a half a quite there 67. The correct answer. Is 71%. A Republican senate party should be barrier somewhat accepting of officials who disagree on some important issues. Point goes to Nathaniel he's on the board congrats Nathaniel. So that was higher than than you thought Allison and they anemic annual initial response that. I mean in some ways it. It shows that people are not rated predictors of their own behavior. I don't think. Well I pushed back on that action but let's let's actually come back to that many to be that second part of this of this from from the same poll. What share of Republicans. And Republican millionaires said the party should be very or somewhat accepting. Of elected officials who criticize trop. I remember in the article had the number of people who said that in the number of Republicans who said they shouldn't be accepting and that was pretty high. So I guess Iowa saying. 15%. To 47%. Outs. 17%. The correct answer is. 43%. Point goes to mate but it's funny seven whose closet thing all of you all underestimated us. We got kind of two data points right Adam. 71% of Republicans say the parties should basically tolerate people who disagree on issues and 43%. Say the party should tolerate people who openly criticize. Trial. Does that surprise you that that there's a big gap there or that or that both numbers are as high as they are and it surprises me that the gap isn't minor obviously I. Guests you know a lot lower for the second question. Com but I mean I think regardless it shows that. Again this you know what you're seeing in this tension between Cheney and tonic is that's tonic has a pretty moderate voting record. Whereas Cheney has been mess. Conservatives and it's as conservatives used to be defined you know. Or her conservative. Credentials are unassailable. And so it shows that being conservative. Does not necessarily equal being pro trump and the kind of exist on two for taxis and its tonic as someone who's. In very personally loyal to trop. Com but the Nam the ideological. Differences. Are something that clearly a good chunk GOP voters and apparently the politicians now which is may be the the shift. Com are finally. So the the other number that stood out to mean that poll was was not only did difference between those two questions among Republicans but how that compared to Democrats. So in particular I think it was the sheriff Democrats who were okay with open criticism applied in. Was 68 person and a much higher than in niche GOP are they're like structural. Reasons by the Democratic Party is more K is that his visit. More pluralistic or more pay with pluralism why the big gap there. I mean there definitely obvious fractures within the Democratic Party making the main difference is that Democrats. And their partner had fashion revolve around one person. And like he said the GOP there's not a lot of reason to be openly critical of trump and still half a place in the party. There's always some extent been. A trade off between how broaden your coalition is. And how cohesiveness. And in general Democrats have been the broader coalition American politics for. For a long time in the GOP has been more cohesive. And that's kind of nothing new immune you know I would say that you've he's coming even. Narrower at the margins still a relative to the you guys had earlier and again keep mine which comes up any time we're discussing the GOP's long term strategy is like the GOP is not really winning very many. Majorities of anything remotely right they're able to win their fair share elections because. We have advantages in the composition of the senate and Neal for college and house where if they get 48% of the vote in the can wind up control of those respective branches of government potentially. Well yeah I mean it's kind of like. You know and their advantage finally to being. Cohesive in theory it's easier to get hired turnout it's easier to that message thing it's easier to. Unite around key priorities. Particular legislation I guess and it may be unfortunately for. The country the GOP seems. Pretty united on it variations could undermine democracy and electoral system. To put a fine point on it. The Democrats are structurally more accepting of journalism because that's how they win elections whereas Republicans don't necessarily have to be all that. Com ideologically diverse in order to win elections. There's also just the fact that I think Democrats. On principle stand for pluralism. More than Republicans do commute given that they're kind of the party. You know ending. You know racial and equities at Sutter. I think that's credited wondered like if I couldn't find it if it's a question might this have never been asked like. 2009. And was that if his popularity among Democrats and in other words when Democrats had to have a kind of more. Let's call a much Kong charismatic. Leader rate I'm in any case let's move onto the next question mcdaniels stole little bit of that the infamous question. Adam in his continued attempts top undermine this game. We're gonna do it anyway. What is Liz Cheney's. Trump score as a reminder. The trump scored is a metric we launched that measures the percentage of the time a senator or member house. Votes in line with the president says the president. Opposes a bill that would mean. Member of congress votes against that if the president supports the bill would mean a member of congress but sport. What is Cheney's trumped score. Me you you may trump score so get that's your first yes and don't look it up. 89. 89. That Danielle. 92 point nine. Now act. You point nine out. Ninety carry. Off. So this is actually a top. The exact answer I believe it is on our trump scored interactive five. Please check out. The exact. Answer and there. It is nine B two point. However. However. In my notes I rounded it to 93%. And the question is do I go my notes argument over net source material. I'm gonna go with the source Ontario apologies Alex the point goes to net and mr. Okay we're not discussed that question to think and minority explained it well but as you can see. Traditional left right. Conservatism has really fallen away adds that as a driver of Republican there still Nathaniel used at that point up. So as we had in turn last trivia question here is where the race stands. Alex. York tied for first with two points. Me your type for her first with two points. Nathaniel your tied for first with two points while. Going into this fight terrorist tied. Come back it's winner take all. Nathaniel are you really have mounted a huge comeback here. A look at type 222. We're gunning to the final question. And I got news for you it's a subjective question. I. Is there room for Liz Cheney type Republicans in the modern Republican Party. I need to Yasser. And then a brief explanation. Ni Europe first. And or weekends. I didn't start and it. If gas attack and I thank diversity. Pat I think I don't know any of like modern you know I mean. Right now are no there's not that she may problem salt used to identify as a Republican. I mean you know I I think maybe you gonna see some breakaway. Conservative Party at some point. I think that would happen. Sooner than the GOP just wanted the chance and says okay we're court that's now in. Two years four years ten years I I don't know right. There yet. OK so a convoluted. Kind of you know okay passes on a question and answer from me. Out here acts. A day I was seeing now in on a safari currently. Is because being a quote unquote conservative means everything that we talked about for so this. Unwavering loyalty to trump and oblique and that is why and he is neither and however I will say I don't think there'll never be room for her and their Republican Party because. The GOP right now is primary emea older white men and the US electorate becomes more neighbors. The party will have to court more younger voters there's a color and women and Cheney and to use that latter group. And I think if the party continues to push her out urgent music which are people you know check this archery. Track box. It could lead to data climate the GOP because voters might elect fewer Republicans into the Aussie and. Federal ops is. Great answer Alex policy your car they're currently winning this round because you answer the question then they may decide not that Daniel Europe Europe and acts. Now as again answer. I'm gonna go to hell mink to distinguish myself I mean to say yes. There is room for the chain type Republicans in the modern Republican Party. On so I wrote this article a couple of weeks ago about how to turn over in their Republican caucus in congress since Strom was elected. And I found that yes for the most part so personal that and a lot of turnout over about 45%. Of Republicans in congress on inauguration day when he seventeen. Art no longer in congress or have announced their retirement. Com and for the most part and their replacements. When there's been replaced by other Republicans they have become more conservative. I'm not by the old definition of conservative action notes safety of these nominees course to to fear an apt. Com buts there has been. Some of these new Republicans in the active Republican since then. Have included some notable intention figures such as senator Mitt Romney such has rep Peter Meyer. Com and so I would argue that in certain parts of the country such as Utah with its large Mormon populations such as Michigan's third district ran Grand Rapids which is a kind of evangelical. Old Dutch district. Mom there is still the ability to elect some of these Republicans go against the green. Don't misunderstand me the party is still ninety percents dominated by pro trump Republicans but the question is is there room kind of in the corner. Com you know shunted off to the side for these peoples here mean Republicans and I think there as. Some places in the country are willing to elect them. In addition I think that just the structure of our elections if you have you know clown car primary against someone like Liz Cheney or against Peter Maier. Omni could win with morality as a of the votes 830 or 40%. I'm so I don't think that that these voices are going away with in the Republican Party tents and grew. Rate hail Mary answer Nathaniel. In fact I agree. With every point you made I think and I think technically you're right I think he still policy. Some of these Republicans in the party. However. That answer was totally wrong and all the ways that really matters in the pointless now lists. Alex Norway an error of applause for Alexander line. Final score. Not even a legal Japanese thing that I would've put out. A little bit inconsistency here right where several questions ago where Alex an answer. And I agree with her she got a point. In this case the book and listen and answer I give it first and she just about the appointment I think some of you can't answer the question to alienated. A leading to the questions to articulate when not much. I mean that it's your job one is just a writer. Also your answer liked by different. Half of them self contradictory answers and then. It was an enhanced. You got to be honest and then you're ready one to party at least five it's like quality and actually be for your ports sportsmanship I'm gonna deduct a point. Which means the final score it is our our army Nathaniel to. Me one congratulations again Alex you've won this very very successful. And well run trivia games. The prize by the way. It is mind deep deep admiration and happily the and yeah. Okay next we're gonna talk about the new voting restrictions enacted in Florida and elsewhere around the country. As mentioned that the top of which the Republican governor of Florida around the sent us. Signed legislation last week that contained a bunch a changes to the State's election laws Florida is only the latest state. To make many of these changes and at some likely be the last so we're gonna talk about all of this but to start. Let's talk about the Florida legislation specifically. On what exactly was and it. The thing I know you've been doing some reporting writing about this commute can you break it down for us. Sure so. Rhonda Santos as might dimension to sign this bill into law it's kind of BP yes. Voting restriction packaged since the Georgia one that got so much attention back in March. Com sells like the Georgia law this would require. Eight proof of ID four at Steve voting so this could be your driver's license number but counselors Social Security number. -- it restricts drop boxes to being open in either out early voting sites while they are in operation which it seems kind of redundant. Or election offices but they have to be. Acts. That we fully staffed out elections offices so effectively is kind of restricts drop boxes only being open during business hours in their early voting stations or election says. On it also bans the practice quote -- ballot harvesting our I think more specifically at Tom says that you can't return more than two absentee ballots for people who aren't your family your kind of immediate inner circle. Bomb also make sets of Florida actually is unique in that currently airing S until a few days ago. Florida if you are absentee ballot in Florida you actually are requesting it for the next two election cycle also people who dated 20/20 requested for trying to point to as well. And so this law changes that and so now requests are only good for one election cycle. But of course that does bring Florida into line with a bleed every other states apps team crossed a laws. And then I think Tom one of the biggest provisions certainly that it would this was among the biggest deals after the Georgia law but on this Florida law also broadens the definition of vote solicitation. To mean quote. Engaging in any activity with the intent to influence or effect of influencing voter. And Florida law already banned vote solicitation within a 150 feet of polling places and so the fear here from voting rights activists as that this could be interpreted in the same way at the Georgia. Bill which is to be and getting eaten food or water campaigns giving footer wire two voters who were waiting in line and close two polling places I should note that. Nonpartisan. Actors such as the election officials themselves can still if app that are. And then it then no thank you for that breakdown but it generally speaking is this bill sort of from representative. Of the Republican efforts nationally tent the changes but. Yeah definitely so in an article that I'm gonna have coming out on the web site on Tuesday. I count eleven states. All with. Effective Republican control of government. That have passed the voting restrictions obviously the laws in Florida and Georgia have gotten a disproportionate amount of attention because those are major swing states. But they're also been pretty significant changes to election laws in places like Arkansas and Montana. That have flown under the radar so let's they focused. Honda on these laws more broadly. Not just in Florida but in all these other states where they're being punished. But let's try that a little historical context here. What about this recent period of voting restrictions. Is similar to previous periods in US history. And and what's. Different so but let's start with similar and I'll just throw it open to the group are their part of this effort that that. That we've seen it in in the past the new ads. I mean the obvious answer is. Yes we can and in fact they're used to get was you just. You know couldn't vote unless you are property owning it went pale right there are always been efforts from the very dominant republic. Two contests. Who gets to vote how they get to vote. The vote. Recent bills passed state searches. Georgia and Florida. Are not. Out of scope with. More recent efforts on I mean every year victories just like our elections Iraqis and what's based on. Or regulations writes if you go you kind of research brands that are reports a look at news accounts write a mean every year. Dozens of states. Change their voting laws in all different types of directions right. The differences now are you know number one it's getting a lot Maurer. Media attention and number two the motivation for it seems to be again for his use earlier like that big lie the nation like. The election with stolen unfairly from. Donald Trump. By mail ballots are ballots cast legally here without you voting or whatever else right so it's that it's the motivation. It was successful in nations that we can probably debate later. Whether that's the real motivation it or not rich personal motivation was that. Republicans thought that if you kind of make it harder for like minorities to vote that they would win more. Elections I mean that's kind of the fairly. Straightforward. Frankly motivation and how much is rooted in. Racism or save vs. Electoral gain they don't believe necessarily need to sort out because they kind of are compatible from the GOP's point of view. But you know what the difference outside of the motivation for it and not that. Like these laws themselves are all that different than. Than what's been done historically he backing off. What it's sad you know when these bills are brought up it's not uncommon to a year Jim Croce point origin crowd the 21 century which I think it's to let. He said earlier about pills. Centuries ago just making it harder her back and people cast but. You more recently. Since 2010 seats have sorted and on this street restricting voter rights and better access and I was and Republican controlled. State legislatures began passing that are idealize and other provisions that made it harder than it. And when the Supreme Court added that voting rights act in 2013 to even more states. Made it hard to vote in ways that were targeted and count disproportionately on people of color young people Amylin people. Is there anything that's different about. That the recent spate of changes but you know compared to as Alex's as Alex he just said. The Republicans have been pushing some of these changes. You know as recently as twenty tax rate is at but is there anything. Different about this this current episode compared to Danner compared to Jim Crow. Some correct me if I'm wrong. Historically here I think the push against mail in voting it's pretty neo. And this comes after several Republicans Lindsey Graham include it called. Mail in and out in a nightmare an essentially sad that it. Republicans would not be able to win presidential races so long as that play. The Florida case it seems that's traditionally. Florida Republicans did very well what they're. With their absentee program rate. And in there were some like. Q takes about how Georgia could backfire in various ways right in Florida at some more. Straightforward case like pandemic the GOP did very well with on. The absentee votes and older electorate right. And that you're an eye for an epidemic not when 20/20 four then. You know might revert back to being a program that Republicans would it take advantage of and so you know. I mean ironically it's it's different is now. The GOP is doing it when it might. Electoral haven't haters and baskets in the sticky territory right like. But it's actually like the Florida one is not getting as much. Not causing as much outrage I think a because again. You know Florida has become a red leaning stay so ordinarily you would think that hey if if you're winning elections. Then why tinker with that rate why take a risky. Uncertainty. And again the fact that like. You know I don't any electoral program in the country in the early part of the countries when it takes to help that the GOP more creep coat. So let's put the we and a lot of other people have been looking into this Sen and there's a lot to discuss their but I do want to just talk quickly about. Tenant voting has an issue. And what the public thinks about these changes then consider voting administration. More generally. Alison where our people on invested to date. To they have strong opinions do they support these changes today not know about this any thoughts. I was looking at Reuters news if it since they had a poll that can happen late last month. That found 81% of Americans believe it's important for the government to make it easier to. At 74%. Also think it's important that new limits are set to protect collections from fraud as well. I think is wrong is the Republican Party continues to push this message that these boots will combat voter fraud which actually knows it. Previous this theme they're no widespread reports of and it. But as line is. Did politicians keep saying in voters keep believing it in that are a Republican voters at least will be pre supportive. The Lhasa have been passed. Yeah when you look at Kohl's specifically asking about like. These laws in general they tend to be pretty polarized it's about half and half and Republicans tent sport than in Democrats tend to oppose them. But it's marching I think if you break it down into the specific provisions and a consistent pattern I think emerges which is that. American voters. Including plenty of Democrats are on quite supportive of voter ID laws in particular including requiring. Proof of 94. Passed you noting so. A few weeks ago argument a couple of months ago at this point I wrote an article kind of running through. Bunch of these polling numbers hand account Ugoh poll that found that American support. And ID requirement traps teams owning 53% to 28%. And so I think that that shows that that particular provision which is also under the provisions that got a lot push back in the Georgia law. Com. Didn't the Democrats who you're arguing against that are very much in the minority on that sent other restrictions. On voting tend not to be popular so. The the ban on food and water. Getting out is opposed by American 169% to 18%. I'm Americans also are generally supportive of Dropbox as a low opinion of soft lot people don't have an opinion that. That again the polls I found compound that 44% of Americans support 24 hour drop boxes. And 33%. Opposed obvious that he a lot of people who who aren't sure. And in general you know having access like kneeling vote outs to people automatically is a step too far for most Americans but generally Americans are quite supportive an option to vote absentee. Is there anything Democrats can do this. These changes in some of these things. So I think a lot of lawsuits have already been filed. Against the Georgia on particular and I think that lawsuits that have already been filed against the Florida law. Com. I ran an article com where a lot of people com kind of voting rights advocates expect X expressed skepticism about this approach is because a lot of these laws. Com are there so wide ranging and so to. File a lawsuit against them as just. There herculean tasks and you have to address each part of the law on things like. Com but but those lawsuits do exists. And and there are at least trying on this map. I'm and then the other course speaking make it to you is federal action there's been a lot of talk about him about the fourth people act which is the date on an election expansion. Long HR one that that of people have been talking map. And then there's also the new voting rights act that's named after John Lewis com that protects him right voters in particular. So for example. Or one guarantees people the right to vote apps team with an excuse it also gives people work around to voter ID laws where they can sign a sworn affidavit that says yes I am wise man. Com so it's about something that Democrats can do news but of course as we're seeing in DC when the senate filibuster going anywhere in a factor mansion not. Coming out in favor HR one it looks like those laws at least one town paths. OK and to wrap I have kind of 22 meta questions. On this issue acts seem incompetent this. Of these these voting restrictions kind of a lot of debate about what the right frame for amendments. I am. Since you know he's. Are these changes and twirls Storey house but they changed results. Is it a political story is it should be cover issues themselves and how they poll we talked about that. Should be covered this from the frame of the motivations behind the measures frightening let's talk about this that are there. From a historical frame right how does this defer. Or resembles past efforts. Knee deep do you feel like. One of those should be prioritized. Or is it just hole of them matter. It's all of the above I think where maybe differ from. Some. Journalists and maybe even people internally writers like. I think it's okay to huge. Try to it bite off different parts of this. Complicated. Hope right I think it's okay to say. I 88 Silber and Gannett focus in. The electoral aspect. It's the most important aspect but because it's kinda what I study. Or i.'s announcement focus on the historical aspect because that's what it study right. So I completely kind of in morals and my guess is one way to put it. Including on this topic. Yeah I think that's rain you know like. I in my coverage I ain't trying to be I don't think I try to be more toward the Vietnam. Just kind of fundamental voting rights aspect of things I attempt totally take. Knicks point I think he's right that there is a place for coverage about how they will affect the results. I think that that is meets daily work and will that kind of would it be that I've kind of calm. New taken from south is more about com just you know voting restrictions matter in and of themselves in if there is now part of an impact. And I think men but canyon I gave her story just looking at. Baseless. Putting restrictions being pass nationwide we. Arguably looked toward the motivations for it and how that thick lie was. Encouraging our beastie legislatures to push spills Chris to mean one could argue if the -- I was not rap on me even when we're seeing now. So I think looking at it the gulf war. Things that you I'm Erica is definitely important I think looking at the motivations. Is probably the way I'm tackling him. Yen that actually sets up nicely my kind of final meta question which is. I think there's also been some debate about partly some back and forth basically that comes down to like. How alarming aren't these efforts by Republicans. Is this age five alarm fire for democracy is this two alarm fire annum. Two people have opinions there how how freaked out should we be on democracies that. I think pierce kind of elephant in the room as an elephant we talked about in the first segment which is like you know. Could Republican officials actually. Try to deprive a duly elected Democrat. Promised in the office of presidency if they win the election right. If it would happen then. That is clearly the you know I without trying to exaggerate too much the greatest at a breaking point for American democracy since like. The civil war at least you know. And so you know I think to the extent it's a popular fighter expect is. It's because it's rooted in this nation and a big lie. And you know and that's why it's more urgent Reich has again like every year lots of laws or pass these laws or are. Not especially. Draconian their roster more efforts by liberal states to make it easier to vote right everything's under code with network and an active network. Meant to be temporary reserves and some states set lapse in some states are permanent. But you know I mean for better or worse. This has always been. Part of American. Democracy and it is one of the reasons like American democracy is flawed as that you don't have this necessarily. Strong enormous shed word where you know for the right to vote. But like but it's to stop steal. A big lie stuff that I think is that by. Five alarm fire at least you know report alarm as his arms. You have Mike and that's ended and it clarifying question for mean I angry with me I think that it's. A five alarm fire in terms of the motivations. Com and so maybe that is the you know if there is all all of the frames are important to talk about that maybe that is the most important Amy has. Because Alec to take me the elect coral example you know there is debate about whether these laws are going to actually hurt Democrats the way that many of them fear. Or whether they might backfire can also what that magnitude. The team is our I think most. Political science finds that the you know it that. Even kind of major voting restrictions are major expansions have him honest facts and so yeah I think you know if you're comparing to. That's an idea that Republicans made outright denied any team to the elected future democratic president lacked calm about it certainly the. The biggest possible problem yes I think right I would give it a five star. Alarm here is because if trump has and continues to dominate the GOP I mean this is really only the beginning I can't imagine greatness he. In years down the line if that they're quiet so pervasive. And the show hero. Switch from coast to my normal role as. Panel members to say that. I do think that the intent behind these laws is the main thing because it betrays. And anti democratic streak and a willingness active doers say anything. That. Makes you know. Denying. A duly elected. Democrat the White House. Not at all for facts. And so yes I did rate these questions that the law to that conclusion that does it for us today. Thank you for joining I think you listeners and viewers I hope. Did not butcher this too much as your Finland host. Knee thank you. Thank you Alex thanked him. He can I sorry let me take that trivia game winner Alexander Ellis congrats and thank you. NG so much it's truly an honor and pilings it definitely thank you so much. Thanks Mike and my name is Mike to comment ton each house in the virtual control room. Claire but again Curtis is on audio editing you can get in touch by email and asset podcasts at 538 dot com. You can also of course tweet at us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show please keep us a rating or view in the apple podcast or rappers podcast. Tell someone about us thanks for listening embassies. And I. I.
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