Transcript for RNC Night 4: How Trump used his 5,680 words | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Mean you know people might not like your murder parents that house to tape the pot cast but like. Some people might like its students of. Hello and welcome to this leak night reaction addition of the 530 politics podcast I'm game under. We've just wrapped up of the fourth and final my the Republican National Convention capping off two weeks of conventions. We did it. I'm sure everyone is tired we'll try to keep it short tonight. President trump formally accepted the party's re nomination for president. It was a prepared 5680. Hours long making it the second longest convention speech by an incumbent since World War II. Was a wide ranging speech touching on lots of different policies which we can get into was also preceded by a speech from a pocket trumped his daughter of course. Aimed at softening the president's image so let's discuss at all here at me to do that our editor in chief Nate Silver any. Wait they're related if vodka and channel. I know I just wanted to make sure that I clarified. Excellent battery market for applause for anybody here who might be confused you know whatever. I believe her real name is eve but he pocket is did me. Maria inhalant back to trappings of knowledge and on the promise name Obama correct. Posters she's the first each named for the island that payment bond. Interest. Well as wild cards. As we've heard senior politics writer Clara Malone has also announced a corner he. And managing editor Marcus Allen him mica a Keylon. So we are going to have of course a pod cast out this coming Monday and we can reviews a more. What happened at the conventions and work or not we've seen any movement in the polls since so try to keep things kind of concise this evening but I just want to hear. As damage it was a very long speech touched on a lot of different things what were your general take aways from the evening Micah kicks off. I think might take away is that the east. Inventions will go down as being largely. Not influential law on the campaign and not one of the more than a memorable convention sets in election history of modern campaign history. Nothing. For kicker really stood out in in either convention and I would include Trump's speech tonight. Actually was a fairly fairly boilerplate. What's it before saying and I agree kind of state of the union me. Speech. Like his state of the union speech I think in terms of policies but also in terms. Lines and attack lines of attack on an by Dan. You saw just to talk campaign throwing a lot against the wall. It was kind of all over the place so it to it. For someone like me who's mostly interested in like it what we learn from myths about the party and that about how the charm campaign is gonna pursue the rest of the campaign. I don't know I came away pretty. News. I want better writing for the American people. Policies aside which she will talk about it was just terribly written speech calling it can steer the speech is even getting it too much credit. It's hard to write law Yates structures the peace and structure. And no quart thematic elements. It was not engaging it was indeed delivered. It would support ending to be fine. Otherwise like fine Knight of television but I think over all. I'm glad that these conventions workers. Revelatory about the empty form that is the American political convention. We saw. We saw no cargo don't do. Any hits we saw what it is which is an infomercial on both sides. And you know it was. In some ways acting. You know I think people. Deserve to you as we discussed deputies podcasts he that way at the party's think of themselves. But ultimately I'm not sure that there check believe. Useful as you know eat nights. Oh view. Oh. Thanks for joining us leave I don't usually ending. If there at the long alternate for you I think it was boring. Like it's the headline is African boring Trump's speech. It could not pick the team. Which Mecca as you are saying is like a little bit increasing given that there's not that must undergo the camp Amer going from like. Early to late in her here in a kind of still doing like to grab bag. And laundry lists. Positive arguments and negative arguments right. He and declares point they kept kind of circling back and it really feels like win years. Walking around some trails are driving around to see you know we like oh I remember that 7-Eleven from the floor right. We saw that before or duck from the same angle but we saw that before that laundromat and whatever else like. I think it was like kind of this. And almost like inexplicable. Anti climax. You know and I mean. Like what will especially compared to 2016. Right. I am your stories Iowa and can I think I think I did here. Can vastly over rating how effective is we've distance between Greece which got very little to mention bounce out of right. But like that like it just like there is no reason. Not to pare this down because even like make the same. A near they're being repetitive who was he militants have like a long laundry list here we're saying everything twice. And they were seen everything and sing it twice and so like I know I mean look I thought the kind of nine primetime. Our was actually pretty good tonight. Alice Johnson was good I think they've done I think its may be cynical but probably Smart to feature a lot. Everyday Americans and nonwhite speakers I think elected officials except for Nikki Haley and Tim Scott and it won and that's was actually fine last night. But they're mostly pretty boring or Tom cotton and it really see that charisma factor people peace between 24 nominees right. I think the Fuller trump got up to speak it was the theme that I could generally. Glom together was. America's cities are burning America's cities are run by Democrats Democrats are back America. Look. All of these people of color speak just how about their lives are democratic cities and that was the preterm. I think trump liked to the comparison trumpet and sixteen trapattoni twenty I was at a slacking like about this. IAE. Think that trump in 2016 what's ago. New and too many people alarming an unconventional. Even if you know we viewed as 2016 piece speeches in 20/20. And we might think you're outsmart the same. When we saw them like I remember being in that convention in Cleveland and being like what just happened. That was kind of crazy he said I alone can fix this I remember. Being struck by that and tonight. ID like. Get it was a long but I think some of it is also we have. Tuned tuned out but it's it's just been columns so. Repetitive the kind of things that he says that even if he had like a couple of lines. That were like supposed to Zain. In part. Yet ceased Egypt cut out the chaff around the week by. It's just eight were used to it's it's Los and its. Impact. There's very little here that you don't see in a daily basis in the presence Twitter feed. Like I'd I'd I do not think it would have been why he's. For the president just have had lived for an hour it would have been more interest Singh had more upside I suppose right but like. It just kinda strange I mean I think beaten to predicaments and I think wanting Democrats did effectively is like they kept things pretty short and tight. You know they may be a dispatches here which was more virtual in the GOP's we haven't talked yet I'm sure we will everybody about like the setting up the White House which is. Striking in several different meanings of that term right on. But I don't know I mean the sun a campaign that is confident. About it strategy I agree with clear that like if keep pare it down in the theme is kind of there all these Democrat run city is that are burning in triple restore order there wasn't that much about Biden there is some stuff right. But like you have to be some work to drill down of that team. Yet you'll some work I guess if you wanna say what attack was the most consistent on by it was more like he's a Trojan horse for Bernie and AL CB have to do some work the drill that down. Let me play doubles let me kind of halfway play devil's advocate there. Even I accurate that's so one is. You know it's it's hard to write short. Summon his edited. Aaron Oklahoma had you whip there. The home and got. None in a bit so. This speech I wonder if we're expecting too much from a convention speech. Com. You know try what would it be they convention speech have to look like that would have been more successful. Am. It would have been more focused I think you are right it would shorter I think that's right I think the trump campaign's problem it is. Focused on one. Maybe they would have focused on on this the cities are burning team. Is that their best line of attack to proceed the press in this campaign. Maybe they don't know that and maybe maybe this speech was an exercise then let's try a bunch of different things see what sticks. And whatever sticks that's what Walt that's what wall grabbing carry. Sources its citizens and the next two months. North of being that but all those older than it here. Under. Not so yeah. Yet so let's mention it was about IN 19100%. Of that reportedly on the White House lawn. Of course using the White House as the location in general it is nor rating. Considered and that. People don't usually use that workspace from the president the people's house as a campaign tool worked for Mondale and all of or so homes and then time. It is the work from home while if you're injured and I've clearly broken some norms and near Khost and podcasts from my pepper. But. Also you know we're in the middle of the pandemic people are wearing masks or quite closely packed. I questioned early on in the night you know if this speech doesn't end up being. Newsworthy either for being re re good in saying something highly controversial. Is the take away from the night that. And it's a cool pandemic where almost a 180000 Americans have died the president hosts and year 2000%. Now some distance event on the house law. I guess what to see hot lights tomorrow. He put it like if you put it like that. If you put like that you know you can't be much and what I put it I'm Julie the Smart ass but like. I mean they're they're two separate things here. Because they're both. Arguably important right. One as is in the White House as a prop in ways that like Singh who you want about. Money term speech on Tuesday and then when he states that in the Rose Garden I guess it was right but that was like. Fairly tasteful. Within the bounds of like plausible deny do we relate circumstances force us. To use of White House where I can never go party is completely will be discreet and fairly elegant and us here. Right this was the literal exact opposite of that right this is like the leader little caricature. Of wind Brock about it was like trying to gross trumpet. I'm west responsive in 2011. Have like the Dottie trump hotel sign of over the White House records kind of what it looked like Gregory of these giant. Trump and signs you have liked it literally a fireworks display over Washington monument that spells out trump 120 right like literally. It was satire almost. End. You know I think usually is like a lot of like media pro clutching over though the hatch act. Bomb tests which you could almost match the term campaign saying. OK let's distract from the pain of its 280000 people in the racial protest whatever else right and involves people going about that. Hatch act. This has visuals we're like. I don't know how the average swing voters at home was GNU feel about that. It's a little charter has its tack if you think they don't wanna see the White House and a political. Tacitly sick. So it is it's what's tacky it's. Hatch act doesn't matter others are probably. Even though it mattered. At its side and not lawyers I. You're saying just because this year tacky it's not that a lot of people think. Might think it's not tacky disgusted us right like. Mean you know people might not like your murder parents' house two to eight podcast it like. Some people might like adds. Up. I think you have this not fully backwards but I Catholic backwards so. I think that hatch act is is important and is not pearl club Chang although I agree I don't think voters while well care about it. I think the voters won't care about either. And it will die because that's it's getting with dramatic. It made them look good if we don't Saudi liked Matt. Yeah. Natural if you took more than five wedding books. Use you'll experience the range. A relative range of human taste things at some people think art tacky some people think the greatest thing in the world let I don't. But I think. Prince home and ocean intricacies in the White House and a wave it. Is very political right so the sub theme it only a satiric journalists here about right now your actually a test that proposition for better. Check up I appoint you call me S detectors. If it. I hear it live so let's just say we're gonna find out what Americans think it. But my young organizers of the house yet so I think the actual problem. With Trump's address. Isn't that it was long is in doubt it was at the White House isn't that it was all over the plays I think it's that. Trump and Republicans still not. A Cogent story that now on the coroner buyers. And that's. The bites by various polls the pan am I you ask the number one issue in the country. People are still dealing with it. At every moment of every day and they just don't. Have. Have. Story to tell that that is politically compelling. And there is any resemblance to the true and that's that's a big problem. And when he talked about it he was not very. Yep he wasn't an empathetic. Way way of talking about the pandemic and I think maybe if there's a visual that couldn't make news and could batter it'll be the this lack of social distancing I've not struck atop my head what what protocols weird. Followed you know. Everyone there was tested but people aren't wearing masks miss that I mean this is that this is out this is outdoors which is a little better that's the nature. Not not allow mass which is bad I think the signal it sends though what. OK maybe giving him a suffered a little bit. Of trouble here with certain people the audience right I'm still kind of mad about the messaging around the protests. And public health people being kind of Blase about the fact that you're sending a very different message on. Social distancing now we say this is worth coming together four or in yak ho it's important but you know. I mean. We saw wrestled to the C decline in the US after that and trumpet his own version he had a Tulsa rallied around that time right. So I don't know when you have a signal that we're gonna pretend like it's all normal. You can not only gathering crowds. With a lot of clapping and screaming you can also not Wear masks right. When I'm gonna pretend like it's an issue mean apparently tested people that were like. Sitting in the immediate orbiter VIPs were not anyone else right you know I worry that the signal that senses like okay. We can forget about Covert again and now we're just the point in our cases have come down enough where it feels like hoping to getting back to normal right. I think there's some chance that maybe not the rally itself right I think people have often been wrong when they try to pinpoint exactly how many k.'s heard this or that event right. But if the signal is now in this back and foresee sought that OK you don't have to. You know worry as much a vessel to the scenes stuff that could still send code case up again. Which is bad for America and frankly probably also bad for comps reelection campaign. Because there's still plenty of time for there to be. The third way we can be net vocabulary wave and in other peak. Where rising cases before November. Might I agree with that name. I agree with all of that I guess what I'm also saying though not to be not to be just Pressley political but is that. OK let's that you had not seen any polling data for all of this election and and you just. I just sat down in front of both conventions. Had you watch them you know beginning and what you infer from each convention about the state of the race. We view at all and for her. Dat trump is trailing by a sizable margin national late and a meaningful margin many swing states. And that he was trying. Any thing. To close that gap. You know what let you get what I mean. It just Americans to connect our Gannett wake up tomorrow and they're not Angela doing their job if they still have a job. The main populists and acted to school the may not be able to the toward their college football season depending on where they live right. The basis is they rely and the restaurants again to you may be close permanently right. You know this kind of sort of disbelief around co lead like doesn't really work very well by the way you know master subtlety and I guess making. In yeah that's what a marketing guy and that and that that combined with. We know I think. That debt that that pandemic is having an effect on the election it helps explain why trumpets trailing pretty meaningfully. And so. I guess I'm just surprised declares point that like trump didn't at least try a more empathetic route or frankly like. I thought it pontiff's speech for example was with pretty effective. She had that a couple kind of empathy lines in there. But it wasn't a team really throughout most of the convention I'm surprised they didn't. They didn't try that. On it Trump's speech. Was them yeah it was the most in line with with frankly the reality of the country right now. Witches frankly pretty sobering reality I think that's what was out of whack for people intently is that. Cold it is the thing that drives our culture that drive our economy the Dresser politics. And the lack of engagement with that reality on most of the themes in the RNC once directing and might strike. Voters. I mean did a really daring thing they could have sent. Repeated to some version of like. This is an unprecedented challenge. We made some mistakes. We just as some things well but now we've turned the corner right that's a bold message that is. Kinda half. True. Or something like white. Setup piece of bitterness about on the White House lawn go like set up all of the different vaccines that are being there are under trial right now. Go talk while also upstate it is Eric and that America has to look forward to talk about all the things you got you backs are in a fighter and an exaggeration and isn't leader of Yuba pharmaceutical companies rightly. Why not talk about like these all of the things we're doing to try to meet your wife and you'd be better because we're going to fix Coke violent tactics. I think I think you can try. What dates that Detroit with cancer and honestly I think you could eat then. Just going hard on and and and emitting no mistakes and it's just empathy empathy empathy. We're gonna build it back. And and that would better. Bill we're gonna we're gonna build it back I you just I think I think you just did I can't. Well put that out front campaign should be built act passed. Bill back that's. Built that great again and again. So Corey commercials are just two final questions the first one being. That being told roll the Republican National Convention did not seen. Completely baster and it seemed like there were a lot of black Republicans making appeals to you know we are just driven by a culture wars or racial resentment or whatever in fact Democrats have made not. You saw lots of women you saw what seemed to be appeals to you. You know the called educated white borders that have been a challenge for Republicans over the past forty years. I mean. Nate you've often criticized trump as making too many plays to that base wasn't this kind of an indication that. The campaign they plan to run now housed may be broader appeal. Note. I think it was a Smart shoes the connection it's certainly not a mean Galen we have watched this president for three and a half years now right. To assume any correlation between strategy on day one and strategy and day U one plus and is foolish. I think I think that punishment effective precisely because. The adults and I hate that phrase so you know you constructive and podcasts are not like but clearly this is not like. Trump's strategy I don't think right senator people who were like OK to do a little bit of more conventional outreach to the center. Despite Trump's best instincts are worst instincts would probably be Smart person just because they did that I think they might get. More announced they would otherwise are now I've no idea and we get an anti down spending the get a bounce right. Duet any. Confidence at all pet that will be the theme. Even three days from now even tomorrow. No right. So. It's like because it's so unorthodox from the current campaign where they may actually get like some type of dead cat down spotlight but like. They're gonna commit. Applicants in a period for the next seventy days or diverted in semantic it's pretty unlikely. Claire's done with conventions. I. I mean someone it is also dislike. Say about some of the stuff you know like like I think particularly. On that the the last month. Coded acknowledgment. Or is the I mean. Really really misleading if not. Baton. Not factual. Talk about. Course of the virus students in in America. That stuff is. So died in at least I didn't I didn't reflecting. That it's been like five years and I've been a 538. And it's it is cereal that mrs. The presidential election that worry and that this is that campaign recovering so it is like. Yes I do like yes we talk but the White House lot of stuff and yes I've and dignity TV show but there is some level that where it's just. Really I act kind of can't believe that this is like the connection. Well it the did the sheer number of false it's. During Trump's speech and during the artsy ones. It's amazing also I had I sent us on the live plot but there was this moment where. Now during the DNC. You saw speaker after speaker after speakers today. It is just a decent guy decent guy like but that's the far right. And then during the RNC it was. Like ascension like trump trump does not mean basically. He has shown me Imus and it feels like. That is very telling now. About the moment worry that that those are the bars. But it's also so like I mean that's perfectly put it it's also sell emblematic of the under. Three incidents. Of these campaigns I mean these are systemic problems they're not just like. US systemic problems that world health systemic problems so the fact that we spent two weeks seeing light. This guy's a nice guy in the skies and nice time pride it's like. Great so two weeks later. It's 12:20 in the early morning and it's like they're still. People dead and wins the vaccine coming out and you know so so on it looks just like. Well won't an area is write it now. Yeah and and and I think that's another way in which the conventions being mostly virtual and taped actually. Made them even less useful and meaningful. Than eight typically are you know a lot of reports saying including. I think guys said few months after saying Mike that the most compelling moments probably it but both conventions. Were moments. Whipped with actual voters. Telling their stories. Those were also the most produced. And and contrived moments like the most commercial they're essentially commercials right. And so. If if you're trying to just use a convention to learn about party. That campaigns to learn about what party. Thinks of itself and its voters then than everything being virtual hate. Doesn't help you if you're just trying to learn I mean it would have been very very revealing that thing. Two. Have seen the trump campaign and the Republican Convention. Respond in real time of the shooting objective plate and protests and riots and Kenosha. That didn't happen. Now do I think Burke you know the convention would have would have. In meaningfully different than that pre taped version. Probably not you know I don't think. Number Republicans fundamentally don't think. Police killing black Americans is is a is systemic problem right that's not a position. But anyway everything being virtual on pre taped I do think made. Meet both conventions. Even him. The last meaningful and then they typically are typically. That meaningful cell. I mean there's there's a real. Suspension of reality with all the other news going on ranging from Kenosha to the hurricane. To the Covert endemic to even you know. The NBA season getting. Canceled none canceled apparently Petersen Lister pouring on. The so an economy obviously right. So get like I cannot as part of me has an Jessica like trump might get a bounce out of this because like because like you are suspending. Disbelief for eight hours or government ten hours of programming right but then like kind of viewer sent back to reality and then maybe it's very ephemeral. I don't know but it's like it's like. Com. It's awfully. Confident that if you the net America some I forget about all the stuff. Until November or that thing just a kind of objectively better. By November which may be as possible to their lot of fronts that you're fighting on right I don't think they did eight time in a defining. A Biden 'cause one of their. David versed alliance stretched releasing is OK just your your opponent down you know. There is some evidence that even though Biden didn't get much of a head to head poll bump although there have been many polls we've sought totally shirt his crew ratings didn't Kruger. He really ratings Biden's improved is image and proved so Biden's image was. Bolstered I don't think trump. Had that coherent and attacked it. Tear it down. One issue with this like Trojan horse attack is like your kind of conceding. That Biden himself is not a bad guy enemies it Trojan horse for Nancy Pelosi would ever. That's an anchor a concession right betrayed a little bit of Hunter Biden with him by and even a kind of came and went right a little bit of sleepy Joseph he sent up to the job kind of Giuliani was saying that right. But like having had trouble landing punches on Biden you've that part of it could have been. Quite a bit more focus. All right Walt we will see where all of this takes us in terms of the polling of course will be back on Monday a regular podcast but. As we've mentioned it's late it's already Friday and released things that are sort of think you'd need Claire and Micah. Ballots are now bouts bouts are now about c'mon down to no doubts Rivera's. Now small balance balance. It's a path. As it. If if if he doesn't get a balance and he's in trouble. Our fair couldn't like that. We'll leave it there and before we go makes an attack now 530 store reading go all kinds of 530 work we do not yet have clutch. Stuffed animals a fighting fox maybe Sunday at 530 dot com slash store. My name is due entered each count as in the virtual control room. You get in touch it emailing us at pod cast that I thirty dot com and greeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leaders are reading a review Apple Store. Also one of us. Thanks for listening and wells. Yeah.
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