Transcript for Trump is setting a dangerous precedent for American democracy
Like literally if you all don't like Cabrera threw it. Happy introduced its heavy mushy stars. I like you know means I see right. Oh. I gotta put that in a dating. What are you looking for a lead and spicy. Hello and welcome to the 530 politics pod cast. I deal and to root. Three weeks out from the election president trump is still refusing to concede and is instead making it tends to undo the results of the election. As his legal arguments have repeatedly failed in court he's turned to lobbying local elections officials to refuse to certify results. And lobbying state legislators to sand electors to the Electoral College who would overturn the will of the people in their states and vote for crop. Those efforts don't appear to be working either but they are unprecedented in modern American history and contradict the tenets of American democracy. Meanwhile corona virus cases continue to search and the country's death tolls from the pandemic recently passed a quarter of a Neil. There is still little in the way of a national plan but will take a look at how states are responding to the rights in cases. And whether the politics of the pandemic have changed now that the election is behind us that sounded like eight grim introductions at a podcast. I should also sang happy Thanksgiving to everyone I noticed your will be a little bit different but hopefully people are fighting. Meaningful ways to mark holiday. And so with that hearing me today as usual is editor in chief Nate Silver any. Did you. Are amassing a politics writer Claire won't declare again. And senior politics writer Perry bacon junior hey Perry again. So before we get into everything that I just mentioned let's ask one of Arctic questions that we haven't asked in a while and that's good news appalling were bad use of Paul. And today's example comes from pollster David Hale Brady in the Washington Post. His article is titled the dirty little secret pollsters need to own to. And he writes about how response rates to polls have fallen dramatically during his career as a pollster from around one in five decades ago. To closer to one in a hundred today. Meeting that pollsters have to call a lot more people to get a single interview. He's adds that as a result of the one person who responds to a pollster out of those 100 people. Ends up being not all that representative of the other 99 and their four polling is no longer truly a random sample. This has been an ongoing challenge for pollsters but his suggestion is that at the very least pollster should publish the response rates along with their polls to inject some sobriety he calls it. Into what exactly the poll is capture. So. I guess the use of polling here it is. Pollsters including the response rates. And we can get into that but I guess first law I should just asked me do you kind of agree with the overall premise here that. Declining response rates does pose a challenge to pollster is. And means that we're not getting as much of a random sample as we once were evil to you through Paul. For sure yeah I mean I think most versions of corrective. What went wrong the polls in recent elections to do with. The fact that some people oral and others to actually respond surveys. And it's not random could do waiting to do other things to try to improve it but it's not. You're not truly getting a random representatives. Have to kind of massaged the data to some degree. It and you know I think for a long time he believed we were concerned about declining response rates and now we did pretty years triples and 2008 for example but it slipped to the people sooner or later this is here where it might blow ironically response rates. Improved during a pandemic which may have also because she's improved more for Democrats and Republicans. Doesn't that and reliable and this is like dot question right which is like does not and reliability. College question. The importance that we should be placing on poles. The reliable and some analysts good news red meats aren't aren't well. I was in the Arctic cat it's like it's either shoe leather journalism mart polls right like. So it so I guess I'm I'm acting stupid question I'm asking bill like the balance question witches in the balance. We need actual we need actual reporting and talking to people in need. Deed to help us on the record our assumption is is not a problem and and expand out even further which is like forget like horse race poll. We also rely at 530. On a lot of pulling deep that is nothing to do with who's up who's down rates but there's like. How people feel about acts or how people feel about institutions like kind of Paul public. Should we be worried about the. The accuracy of that stuff. Well I think it's not. Two things you can mix right and excellent. You know pulling a Leno and oppositional right you've exit polling. Sure there according. Substantial uncertainty right I'm saying that if you rely it was appalling. But there's not really recording it created its going to be different so is where it is harder go. Our guys are also looking at polling rate so presented more things we say we're really sure about this we have to wait until we. Verify. People's behavior looking it. Voting for example. So greater a greater comfort with uncertainty. Greater a greater. And then there's been there's no way around Tulsa communicative. Newfangled. Alternative to polling you know. That's gonna magically be incredibly accurate right. We're just enough to make do with I mean pulling the universalist principal action the com. Less accurate that over time. When he was fairly equity eighteen was quite good race going it's debatable the first place like I'm sure it will fill the vacuum liberal groups of stuff. But. Its not like you now. If you don't know which. Groups are changing he might know we're to surrender order if you didn't know that like. Hispanics is about to experience its victory for trial right then you would note that actually. So so when it comes to actually uses of polling is that there's no newfangled. You know seeing that we're going to be able to replace pulling it. One. Are they are different ways to poll that seemed promising and then two when it comes you'd just. You know injecting some of this uncertainty into the equation. Does David tells idea sound like a good one. Posting response rates along with the polls to give people a sense of you know these are really random samples are very few people who actually respond to polls. Well again I'm Barry. As a seller can assure you to people who single axle poll it is settler was it's wrong. Now it is true that let alone light poles to the scene. Response for disease because Julie Myers street what did problem with just refuse. Randomly at him you wouldn't. Period clear decent inner. If you. Write. But it higher response rates. Faulted to give it up so purity issues in general circumstances. Transparency right wrong. Issues here are one. At least actively response rates the people that way also works for exactly it another way right. Two is that there's little arguments about holding and you know there's these if you publicist if people use it. In a day because people are idiots enters of course. It's still be useful to do this track op. Spitzer are changing over time it would be better paper industry while. Benchmark rate at eight poor. Data as still. Individual polls. Coming one community peoples like skew. Perry as someone who uses polling a lot in your reporting like all of us. What do you think that's as is a good use of polling would be helpful and no response rates when you're talking about polar your writing based off of Poland. You know that's our question in part because I don't know of were saying that it. People respond to polls are not present and I don't know how mannerisms and they are. So I guess if the are overwhelmingly team rich or wounded when he don't work. Do you know we're got out of their homes or their own worldly or whatever they'll be one thing I don't think I totally integrate since. What exactly ever this is and that's when questioned to start went. But. Publishing and things are needed and yes in terms of publishing respondents rated it's really low I think you'll get a lot of these polls taken and that sure I believe. Point might be. Polls about who's going to win the means senate race when it's like 45 to fifty years so are one thing but I think. He's still useful to know. How will will most Republicans vote for tomorrow. Will most every American's vote by an ice pick in most polling questions not in this forty eight. He's usually don't be in the seventy RD zoning helping those. I feel that public opinion polls are useful particularly when they're not showing very close margins I think we're. It's worse separating. Are we predicting an election you know closely divided couple's neighbors are re trying to get a sense of public opinion on sort of broad questions. We don't know already is announcing a 5050. Yeah I guess that's a good greater Jose given that what we saw in this election was something. Like a four point. Error nationally. If we're looking at deed and this goes back declared your point about issue polling white. Do Americans favor shut downs war to americans' favor keeping schools open things like that. If we're looking at a twenty point margin should we be less concerned about. Terrorists in polling. Or you know how should we how should we use bets in the context of what Terry saying when things are not super close we still wanna get. I sense of what Americans that. I take me and Kerry's point that eat we'd rather have polls that not apples to tell us. You know you know where there at least think in one direction of we don't have enough information on this or this group is changing or at this is generally what. The bulk of this demographic group is leaning towards. But the other hand back have this larger. And this does larger journalistic wary and I guess this the sixth aptly sums from from this. The sort of alarming I would say early indications like a lot of Republicans. Order and I think that and pollsters piece at a lot older men in general it's harder to get in touch it and to reach them. I see that as kind of extension of the trend journalistically where certain demographic of America just kind of rejects. Participation. With journalism rejects participation. With believing in the media like I do you see that as an extension. This problem that we've been seeing an art in our industry and I do think that that's a problem now people might say while it's OK because like. The year. White male view. You know the wake me ill dominance of America is changing witches trip right in the long run but also. I find a pretty big problem that a big part of the American. Our big up a plurality. Here's the 588 term of the American population is an engaging. Is that is isn't disturbing thing it like it's just like not and sexist and Chile good to. Pattern to be on path to be a. Does this seem like something that in a different political context. Board changed do you think we're gonna continue to see. Large portions of the American public distrust the media and the report not inclined to talk to pollsters. I mean I guess it's hard to predict the future by. Visit the eternal. You'd. Sure it's totally established that that's the reason why the polls over. Off a little additional upward grouchy. But there is just where it is just won't work for the rest. I think it addresses like but because polls actually publishing numbers of these torturers polls right that you built computer actually did this. It is the result even with love if you kind. If we noted other procedure to claims may interfere let's say anything. Re entry and no one had. Stories are myself are factored it actually. Basic details wrong it's actually this interpretation oh he said he thought that. Organization working Eric conversational just factually wrong. I. I know I can verify facts around. These might actually your true or not right so easy these clothes that are willing. Just factually wrong you for a credible reporters who ought to be you know I mean it's just didn't. Disturb it makes you wonder I do hope accurate and he that is. Polling is easier to. Kind of hold accountable because their individual numbers that you can compare to other individual members and it's not the same for the broader journalistic process. Son was a plus for a while to look at like Google searches. And in use data from that's why I am hopeful other forms of need. To be used you can figure out way to do them like you know what media have. After the election we have county data we have precinct data sought other people further Grasso but if you're reading about Georgia now. Ahead of like the run off their precinct you have county. I think the problem is of view of the world where we use polls less. Maybe we use polls puts it we have we think that Republicans and arts by Nepal's perfectly. Media poll like New York City is more accurate census that many Republicans at her polling in New York City race. Maybe that response regions like maybe it ABC news is calling you you live in Atlanta you that in New York City unity LA. You don't have an anti immediate things here fines I think that. There might there Monaghan there's a public and he wants here where we use alternative methods we think about is a wholly. Is Wisconsin navy's harder loophole in this environment in Minneapolis. I think it was like it was a probably are those of us column with helpful. And I think it was like buckle up and was well done I still think there's a way to. We still need managers of broad public opinion and we still need to some skepticism that they are harping. We capturing and deaths very very. Thoughtful. Great report. Pulling discourse. Like narrowly that I am in like. The journalistic and discourse promptly lit up just kind of personal well that's that's not yet know I I agree because. We talk about issue polling on this podcast all the time right like that was kind of one of the main tools that we used where and the pandemic hit to try to understand how Americans were reacting now we're never gonna find out because we didn't have. You know a 160 million Americans go to the polls to vote for whether or not they wanted to shut down liked both journalists and politicians lawmakers themselves are going to be relying on the information to try to make decisions and so for meat animals more important than why with a pulls off by five points in yeah. X or Y state. And like but up that eight like cap like. In an election year like yes a lot of our journalism at 530 is based on our streets pulling. But the rest of the time and in addition to supplemented by that issue Poland which is important. But it Jenner like that's that's what I have to. They're so one thing I do not buying I didn't quite certain that all of these people it is different kinds of know that you from if she's out right. It's very it's opposite right that they pulled that we could actually verify and validate is the first first pole since we could test all its real world. That's exactly my point made is that. I'm more worried about. Is (%expletive) hole and light. We don't know whether we don't know how accurate that is and so if we're seeing problems and horse race polling. Then there may well be problems in the issue polling but we don't really know to what extent the last. Brittany subsequent sometimes appear pollsters bitterly pollsters accountable to us. Polling. Smart journalists write you know the sale will be issuable if it honestly that's horrible that's. History you don't have to ask me turn out. So that is one thing in your movie. But you know experts that the justice should embassy issued its workers are. Well in conclusion. Would we say good use of polling on the part of David Hill in the Washington Post arguing that pollsters should be more transparent about the challenges they're facing in terms of response rates. We're spared. It averaged out there are at a news report written activities congratulations. Let's move on and talk about some of Trump's attempts to overturn the election results there are bite Mike Howell. I think former res net president trump has been trying to use some for the results of the election. The first in the court of public opinion by making arguments on Twitter setting out surrogates to news networks to give misinformation to viewers. The second way is an actual courts the third rate is by lobbying local elections officials. Not to certify results and that the fourth way is lobbying ST. Legislatures. To send electors to the Electoral College that would overturn the preferences of borrowers in terrorist states. This all is. Kind of amazing tribute purported not happening in the United States that we think I've. As. You know it developed democracy. But you know here we are it doesn't seem like any of these efforts are will be working at this point but. We have to take note of that report on them nonetheless because happening it's. So. Just two lay things out there was toward different attempts at the president as making am I missing anything. And how are those different efforts guard which seemed to believe them most successful between public opinion. I mean. He's getting kicked in the courts so that's kind of successful. The other three it's it was clear and resourcefulness originally. Trusting polling there are different. Polls that say a larger or smaller shares Republicans. Believe that op. He'd be you know elections still program president phrased the question is could be losing to think that yeah acknowledge. By one bit because there was fraud and so we really do it energy blues the Sydney Powell Craig's list. You know I mean so far we haven't seen. Any attempt Brantley and around the legislature's after fruition yet there are so. That could conceivably happen Michigan assumes you want despite actually Michael's estate weird but it is best chance of that. You know it does not seem like in those steps occur that could be successful for troops. In the long run it you democratic governors in Michigan tan. Pennsylvania for example you. You have the votes certified in Georgia on the way I might read with enough electoral votes unit for some reason. Michigan did not appoint electors then it would beat up anyway but this is really. Very successful the fact that it very likely won't be successful kind of changes. The stakes alive in different kind of complicated ways right on the one hand. It's hard to help people would behave if this really could change the outcome program to fight for being president you know. Undated if you're like Michigan or something. OK well I ask you when anyways all happens if you. If you delay this process just trying to put some. African tools who were trying to subvert democracy right. And it is actually. Effectively. Meet you here's believe in the people's that you are deluded right. You're living in reality. There's no way around. Maybe if enough people kind of fall further cuts reality that people believe you actually can't. Get support states that something changes I don't know when we get slapped by. The courts of the guys that are. But it's it's it's. It's number one hit dangerous number two. Unlikely to succeed. Neighbors reading cool office critically. Amateurish way so. As it said it seems like the efforts in the courts are failing. It seems like to some extent trump a successful in persuading Republicans not to trust the result of the election is more immediately important would be you know. Whether or not Republicans are going along without honesty and local level are on the national level Michigan has kind of wherever ones ours are right now. Happy you know did it would have more insight into how successful the president has being in lobbying of these state legislators war local elections officials. And the broader Republican. I mean I think that he has been. The most and it's the most noise is and the most. Most in Rhode he has made and and there's very little in that that the term. Campaign has made in trying to overturn these lectures adults. I didn't know how to phrase this you know that because it's it's all kind of wild and and not true. But trump has had the most success I think in you know calling these local election officials to particulate Michigan say to Wayne county. Republicans who were on the local elections commission's basically exciting is that davis' term campaign said what we certify the results of the election but we felt pressure and in knows there's there's sort of this odd. It like. They're trying to have it both ways and I think that we will. Mission will officially certify are not certain bank apps election results of staff and cracked retreat yesterday on Monday days. So. Yes so you know by the time you're listening to this until now probably potentially. How successful trump has been on on that route but my guess is he won't be successful I get the president's. Personal meaning on these local officials were republicans' has been most affected because he's the president and there. In a local Republican officials who peel back. Intense pressure yet and of course there's also election officials for example in Georgia the secretary of state rejected. Fall. The pressure. From the president. Perry. How is the broader Republican Party reacting to all of us the last time we talked. It seemed like not that many Republicans were pushing back on it or any more now. With a small number of Republicans who were pushing back at that I know that. Senator Portman of Ohio just campuses throughout needs eakins let Anderson go forward. So you are still in that sort of look Scotto but also more moderate Republicans Portman Murkowski Romney says. You still have. Yet the adding rubio isn't saying siblings went to your anymore Republicans a buyers to get intelligence briefing you're getting Republicans say this treasonous and go forward they're not quite saying straw visa concede but there but there's more in the congressional and Washington. Congressman resources are moving on from this tax and he's been pretty strong. In saying trump a loss you sing that at the local level I would say it's a little different I'd save you less of political level you're talking about here but. Yuck on Friday night for example. State legislative leaders of Michigan the Republicans win to the White House. They wouldn't quite say whatever they're meeting they stated the trump hotel to ignite which is useful talk but it is on Sunday they can you know he's sort of statement saying basically. Well we let are they continue we should check everything and make sure nothing's wrong basically sort of giving. You know excuse to continue. This sort of search for irregularities. John James the Michigan person who ran for the senate. Yes that it cannot habits of a civil Lincoln and questioned the results. The difference is a story. I'm Jim remember rooted in the headline is Republicans re write an old playbook on disenfranchising. Black Americans and biggest work concentrating debts. We have strong but also missiles and states. Were really trying to use you know. Create lots of problems for both to be counted in Atlanta. Philadelphia Milwaukee and Detroit specifically and I would argue that's not just wrong it's also being supported by officials in those areas so. Slump is a very unlikely you will succeed in this Joseph Beimel Mosul resident when he. I do worry we are now setting a precedent where. If you lose a close race in a purple or red state. Annie heavily black area the area where you've lost votes you find for written irregularities in voting that happen every county. You say can be certified. And it looks like there's a few Republicans and neither candidate support you. And you may be able to move forward I really worry about what I've seen. Not for the presidential and reasons more I'll covering it. Use being black and living in Detroit mean that your vote can be disqualified based on when argue silly disingenuous pretext. I didn't have massive question there and maybe the most important one it is how does. What does this all mean for future elections in America is it mayor now Republican position that. You know all elections should be question all actions are you lose should be questioned. Or maybe even the elections when asked prompted in 2016. And still you know claimed three million. Legally cast out. What does what does happen or how does this shape our democracy from Europe now. I mean we've been talking about this her five years that's I think that's what's alarming is like this level it is it is. Is at the same time he most important kind of political discourse and he most basic. Almost insulting to the American people level of discourse or were let let this is all we're talking about the validity of elections and there is aired huge problems facing the country. So it's terrible for the country it's terrible for future action and there's like that's kind of the bottom line the harder partly it's pretty easy to diagnose the problem. It's like how do you fix it. I mean that part right exit as you have people who are elected officials were Republicans say this is crazy. He's not in power in mark this is crazy these votes in the city's count. You know do better to win. People in those parts of the country are people you know. It's. There's there's not much to say about the problem itself it's pretty clear the problem is it's it's the solutions were known particulate stepping up. On the partisans and things. Is there any precedent for this in American history. And I asked a question broadly but also some Republicans have compare what's happening now to. You know Al Gore is porch for a recount in Florida Hillary Clinton's claims that trump is an illegitimate president. Or you know STC Abrams essentially at the end of her election acknowledging that Brad Kemp would be the governor of Georgia but saying that she wouldn't actually concede the election. Column. You know how to those all compare to what we're seeing. Think what Stacey Abrams it was great. But I think it's also elected order to different room. What is right and it touches will. Now that you might want but. But it could see because of voter fraud ever and that's. Much less serious trying to persuade state legislatures are elections officials. To go about it you know leaves his didn't end. While this court case totally wild theories right I think it's much lower severe. Need to repeatedly made earlier it is hard to know different actors. Behave differently. If the election is actually. Wouldn't it be true. These efforts word they get to a point where they seem to have some daylight due to success rate exceed. Much bigger public it is protests. Job. You know this is what is it world eligible to instill in people to scope out. Their business. Communities like. A lot of here reversal of American life which which. There'd be protesting. Speaker that we saw this spring summer. And you'd hope that it would not behaviors stable country I read that use. I Clint Smith in the Atlantic basically. Comparing this 1864. And I know that seems like me acting. Eight in the country and 1860 I've read more pieces he's he's he's more on I think he. Comparison about the election procedures. You know 2000 controversial as was its weak acting like they're acting that divide and industry and he sort of on acceptance particularly right now the Republican candidate. Democratic victory in years and a lot of Republicans just do not believe should be legitimate I think that's a different case and I do worry. At the right parallels are too. Are we increasingly we have two sets of group two blocks of people. Whom cannot work together and I went together to have different values and I want looked. It's it's it's that it's the compare the civil war comparison. Is the one that I think everyone is afraid to make and which I remember hearing for the first time I'm like Presley. Podcast meet. But I think as you as you watch things develop over that the you know the course of the past couple of years this pretty alarming. I mean we thought we are divided during the Obama administration we thought media. You know fox we thought Fox News was a really malicious force during. You know the other Obama there at the bush share right but then if you if you spin it forward to now where we're talking about people. Question the legitimacy of American elections pretty openly pretty publicly everywhere. That's Edward extremely little evidence or just no evidence whatsoever like made up out of whole claw. Wright came out credence given that the you know it it is an uncomfortable comparison like we do you have a extremely bloody. It stints with in our history. People being incredibly divided over here. Mean you know in the case of the civil war. But staff single issue. And now I don't even know what I like it states you know it's the party slate of issues but it's Patton. It did just it's the disturbing comparison to make but. You know. It's kind of crazy one. But in terms of the actual like you sit eight rooms Clinton gore. I'm trying to think blew it and I got the would be different is like we've not had any of the cases a person who we know. It does not abide by any rules or systems and is willing to overturn a minor and then he doubtless these animals would. I don't think that two occupied. Occupied state capitals he wasn't becoming governor like. I think strong believer in January when it but I are divorces or because. You know we've had five years of him behaving differently and never any doubt that Al Gore people like debts I think that's. Huge differences trumps record of that eight year bit this I don't the president terms of like I think in a Pennsylvania county today. This sort of fight over certifying the results I don't remember this previously. Partisan fight over whether there was a county in Pennsylvania where the Republicans voting in certification. Dates from Juan. So that that's right to the point is like you were now point we're Democrats win election. So Republicans rule opposed certification states in counties it's from want and it's really dangerous territory I don't see an obvious presence that. In some ways like. A lot of the conservative Democrats express pre elections over the courts will current news. Steal it for trump right and that's been quite wrong. But these older. People the process right secretaries of state a disappointment George it did not attempt. Still to her to write. But you know canvassing boards and and other kind of elected officials have been whatever like Perry said thought about very much right. And of those people start acting like partisans than. Then you have to issues where's the court seems to be kind of a little bit more grounded and you actually have to have some theory you. The case right and not just make things up kind of. Claw. And he could gaga on this our residents and Georgia isn't Clinton this opposition where. He was saying the election was not a fraud was a has become like he's taking the liberal side and as rumors about and facing a primary like you don't ones. It reelect horrible decision the in this context where your Republican. And orbiter Democrat in the other party wins in your area it becomes so will you be crying Neary if you look if you accept the result is a really. Terrible precedent we have I think the primary yet. But the secretary of state of Georgia I would argue this sort of enforce the cannot come out parents seem like he's taking a gory action should you rate actions saying Joseph Biden won George. We pay what you're saying is that actually. Whether we live in a democratic society has become a part in that whether or not the votes cast by the American people to determine what government they want. Whether we accept that or not. Is parts. I mean that's that's like what sat. Bay let me that in threat isn't as cleanly as you just didn't or its. Orient has the potential to be in right now in this moment that you don't look media's anywhere when it. Biden walks into the into the Oval Office these issues do not look like what we are good decertification. Votes are not comfort. There are weird and unprecedented like Biden won destroyed nobody really. Who thinks Biden didn't win Wayne county by overwhelming margin the fact that we're debating this is is insanity. The one thing that I guess at for talking about. Historical comparisons during the 2000 recount. A sleek and slim majority of Americans thought that there was not they work they didn't trust the vote count going on in Florida you know people were sort of divided partisan they had their horse in the race. But when. The you know when all was that done and Georgia B bush was. You're going to be president they did polls that reflect do you accept the results of these you know this election and people say yes right that was the overwhelming. Am response of polls the people sent OK I didn't think the vote count was there. But I accept bush as president and he can you imagine that happening today like that's the thing I keep on going back back to its its its level of yeah act its detachment from our. System of democracy. That that lack of common they and it is you know is disturbing like people like people in America. Arts genetically. Disposed towards democracy right vs autocracy it's it's that we teach these things generation. You're not you not inherently born. Yeah I think as we have all ended archer mrs. A challenging discussion and yet democracy is not decade ago predispose condition it's appointment takes institutions and quiet from. You know all the different political parties and actors and it seems like for now has the converts its orders continue having. And hopefully you know as you mentioned was the case where Florida and the recount in 2000 once has also been done and Joseph Biden is president. People will have faith in the process Harvard you know worked appropriately. Because there is no evidence eyes so without let's move on and talk about the search and rotavirus cases. And Beatty how the politics of congress have changed this past week we surpassed 250000. Deaths from the coroner virus pandemic in the United States. And teases our continuing to search around the country. Seats are still taking rather different approaches to dealing with the virus and trump has done little during his lame duck here heated in order to address the challenges and national level. So I want to talk about. One just putting this moment in our you know and our process in contacts. But then also to weather the politics have changed at all post election Cindy can you pick a software. Kind of the data and putting us on perspective of how bad is it right now compare to where we were in desperate earlier this year. So we're out detecting generally around Kong. A 15275000. Cases per day. That is why some margin. Or worse than previous peaks would which came in the spring when which. It is summer. We are doing more testing now. Which accounts for so. Those. It's believe now detecting around. One in three actual actions we use it every day. About 500000 America to co anchor up front with Corey Myers 3.5 million people a week. You know see hospitalizations. Are rising as a reaction to that there is inevitable result of that guests are rising it is true that. The death rate is a bit lower than it was in the spring which candidate still pretty high rate it lower on a very large number of cases that means. People are dying and Republican and I hate to say it but it probably. Get back up to Pete give. To douse your word deaths per day unfortunately. There are a few states where things are slowing down. A little seed kind of look at the second derivative right on the frontiers of states we're. Where North Dakota South Dakota where some people got it. That there is some degree of community immunity. If 32 people to stay have coded and or your people tuned for that so it's bad enough like you have. Some states are wittingly kind of getting this you know. Strategy where we're here partial immunity might produce numbers but we're in for. But it really long. You know few weeks I think it would be questions like will this keep getting worse. For another few weeks we're will like the previous peaks Libyan peak and decline again. I don't know right but this period with Hong. With the weather turning colder with holiday travel right with. Just people scoop it fatigue. I think is good news bureau reports. From the beginning of the pandemic we have tried to summit set to discern why outbreaks happen. When they do you and whether or not it's related to politics. You know partisan identification and whether or not people are following the world's also whether. There are greater restrictions in one part of the country or another but also whether there's you know there's density. There's all kinds of different factors but we've been able to better discern why outbreaks happen. When they do you. So I think people miss at times is that relatively small changes in behavior. Accumulated over many weeks and make a lot of difference right. If you have so horrors how fast. The disease for which afflicts how many people do you transmitted to what you get it right if errors zero point nine. The disease decline to the orient your it would eventually die out. It's one point one of and it grows the Easter to have really severe problems after appeared time and like and that's what we're talking about race and seem to be able to get. Are down to wind so that's one point two wins and subtleties that you big difference right but you know so clearly. We see now potatoes and more ridiculous story they did in the spring. Which is that in red states where people are taking fewer precautions. Then there's more spread right you'd if you adjust for different. I'm protecting more cases now where in the spring right. Even if you adjust for that. Print record numbers than. It's clear that states like north Dakota's echoed Iowa. You know. Earlier this summer Arizona and Florida have to have worst outbreaks that in the most Blue States New York City being an exception. But now you know north Dakota's corn pops that particular probably as head. As much who would even as New York if you're. So you know it's kind of what the scientists said right if people are less cautious then. It will spread. With that's I mean look thinks Imus is just trying to. Human nature right people. It's awfully hard for people's that it. Isolate themselves from other people there bird you know it's now in attendance right. And I think. A lot of medical advice a lot of the kind of school takes. On the left like David Miller human nature and downplayed the importance of in person socialization. And could start remote places more active the understanding. You know is complicated could argue all day about this you could. Could it truck administration's response to disasters and exits are very important exception. On the other hand. You know most European countries have had roughly equal problems. To the US. So I go out all the all the outtakes. Feel like beauty some world history. Yeah. Maybe one question that region trying to add to last year is whether or not the politics of all of us have changed after the election for. Months it's like there is a clear divide between. Democrats were more in favor of restrictions and quite critical of the top administration. That was tractor quarter or reopen the economy open schools etc. An and Republicans on the other hand coo who wondered fewer restrictions and to keep the economy that's. How those politics change at all and now that the election. Behind us it's it it's a good question I mean I think that on the issues. Unfortunately and this is this is in the thing about it most disturbed by you know Terry that the the plan. The safety missed this bit whether or not sought the vaccine mist would be safe. Hindering a presidential election political issue and I thought it was pretty irresponsible. But several high profile national Democrats to kind of cast aspersions on. A vaccine that would be released on it a trap administration right with the obvious you know education like. Yes trump was also trying to push forward an axiom trying to save lives in new vaccine at a time Election Day election it rules. That the politicization of the vaccine was passed. I do hope that. On the vaccine issue more Americans. Are more Americans will. Trust. A vaccine over over the next six months that there will be a lot of them. Public policy you know private ad the ad council is trying to roll out these trust vaccine. Advertisements particularly in. You know black communities were obviously there's a long history. People eaten. Afraid of vaccines because. They have reason to be because of things like. Tuskegee syphilis trial exact so. I would hope that that. It's steady. Equalization. Of vaccines trust will be a good change. But the locked stuff has always been so those. Acme knee point out a lot of the tricky nets about people's personal risk. I think the school and advocate about how you deal with personal risk right that's kind of what it is at the end of the but by meeting our. Partisanship on to that. It's become this really sticky issue probably had fights within your own family right your listener. About what is the safe way to do things around Thanksgiving for instance. And I don't think that stuff is gonna go away like I think maybe. Maybe we'll get a little bit more air push back to kind of hard core close everything down. But I'm not really share and I do think for one thing I know for sure is a lot of people are upset at the lopsided. Public policy response when it comes to focusing on. You know reopening businesses verses reopening schools are making schools priorities at something that I think a lot of Americans probably again. Both sides of the partisan does divide are pretty upset about. You couldn't tell a lot of complicated. Should we have supplemented you know such and such aid workers and such and such industry in order to make sure that schools open safely. I don't think the you know that the political fight and that stuff for going away but I do you think you can you could probably make a good argument that a lot of people here feel are. Policy priorities for a bit out of whack back. Are hard to separate the timing of the election we had the election. Indeed election now. Happens in this fight happens to them in the same timetable but so it's hard to solicit it is didn't the last few weeks we've seen is. Like the Blue States are doing more restrictions like you know states that have already got a problem going back to sort of sitting down restaurants after 10 o'clock or no indoor dining but had him barred. That's an o'clock and a winner the hurt of going back to more aggressively. You seem so he sort of more conservative states. At least close may pass into the what push socialism and they're being more sort of probe mitigation work in other times as well I think you seeing. There there is a partisan divide it's like he liberal states are more aggressive in the conservative states are but I think in Italy plans to beat. You are seeing more governors and leaders taking this seriously as a whole and I think that is significant you know and I think that might be where we need to be his light. You're sort of mid sort of I'm not surprised California where Clinton in Iowa over the fact that Iowans be more pro massive network two months ago with import. Take and it reemphasizes that clears right. I think partisanship can kind of use used to standing. It is part of a person just this right. Take this kind kind of complex range of issues relatively few about you what you might actually have. Particularly strong intrinsic feelings are eligible right. And use it to develop. What you can use the correct behavior policy response and a host of related pain right wrong. You know because I think with Cuba coded. It's very tricky and there's nothing that irks me more than like people literally just aren't asking how can we just be patient for a hearing I mean like. It doesn't understand. Human nature people want to get together physically beat Houston learning is a lot better physically beat it's can you see classroom. Together right job. And so they're really difficult decisions the vehicle for lots of reasons apart because if you do you need to push case leader Amin now. There's a much work O'Hair case reluctance. Because of these. Vaccines right now. Then there's so much we're lucky we actually are doing something with their time region Steve offered it merely delay these deaths right you know. These are ethical decisions and it when he thinks like. There's obviously correct response to the next US but. Around the world we're in Europe was very reluctant. To impose new restrictions but these are getting very clear now how bright those countries will probably policy wrap things right. But you know people and people use partisanship is excused it ignored it we kid. Difficult problem lewis' right if you severely disrupt this child's education like the year just you know people people should be happy. Ashamed to say that eight. Being able to socialize with other people it's not like in Lawrenceville optional its reach people. It's pretty essential and to kind of deny that I think kids is. Maybe horrible there's a disconnect between kind of the way people signal how they behave. Popular social media and yet you want eight. Any block with civic group restaurants in New York they're totally full indoors outdoors whenever I. That the district nutrition. Point. To not point it does seem a little bit like the politics of this has changed in Blue States. Because earlier in the summer there was a big part rack against the president's. Kind of urging to open schools race. Now that. You know basically to Bellagio and the teachers' unions have shut down schools if Selig are a lot more parents in New York City. Who want the schools to stay open and feel frustrated by those measures whereas earlier in the summer you overwhelming it seemed like democratic position was that the president was being irresponsible by urging people there. Keep schools open. Evidence strip right there's evidence that schools lose disputed evidence right most of it seems to detect it. Number one and schools are huge source of transmission. Number two kids can get it the theory theory rarely actually get severely ill room. The current virus and so you know name. You know it's one of the cases where an equitable it's right we just don't like up in your activity is it is. You know it is a source of his twenty we're dangerous eating at restaurant indoors. Developers are. And so maybe you would permit everything to be happening. Of course much as possible restrict indoor thinks it is possible to be the kind of all evidence kind of theory right. I mean to say like. Almost all the happenings I hate to say it like for an illegal order Thanksgiving gathering. Really checks off like. A lot of the boxes for her for things that are gap or spread right people of different generations. Traveling to sheer ill in the worst days of tests because you're eating right there really is unfortunately like. Quite bad outwards to reduce your risk here. You know so so that's one thing that people are appropriate. To school I wish there it is much school around like the beaches joggers wearing mask does that stuff is really that. Hugely significant ours are. Yeah I can and cannot just go back to like what I think is the means. Problem facing America which is like this the approach to schools vs the approach to businesses. I me. Try to put this but I think you know I think back to the conversations that we are having promised podcast in March and April which were really quite dark and Eddie that's nine way to describe and they were dark conversations and he spent a lot of time talking about how politicians in America where now feast with. How do you make policies. That have to Democrat Republican. Factor in a certain number of people die basically we're talking about like the ultimate moral choice of politics ticks which is like. The acceptable risk to have. You know how society go on. To know that at certain number of people will be infected because of these policies which is that you're making. And probably a hopefully small house you know but that's a subset of those people will pass away. Right that's that's the conversation that we are hop rain which is about like. How do you manage those risks how do you make responsible choices and I think with school reopening you obviously have teachers' unions are getting fairly acting. Some of them didn't sign up to be you know Frontline health care workers right which is you know we have we have some people on staff who has you know. Spouses who are teachers Pacific music teacher you know those people are also afraid for their health and for their so their there's understandable. I am. Apprehension on their side of things. But I just think that that. The politicization of all this has made. Our debate so dumb and on new wants and hasn't served the American public well to hit them over the head with the recognition that. There will be deaths in this country there have been far too many deaths in this country. But we tenth but this that no matter what we're in the middle deadly pandemic some of the choices we make. You that you might look back and say like that was the wrong choice like acting nears it comes right like Cuomo looks back I think they'll be huge part of that is inimical Agassi you know. Which is that like a kind of made the wrong call him. Locking all of those old people in nursing eight. But that was a that was a policy choice that can meet in the midst. A lot of things happening I think the dominance of the partisanship over like. Cheating on social media as Nate says like beaches and things like that overshadowed the real. New wants frankly I'm comfortable and Nolan will be happy. Conversation people have to happen public. How do you picture that millions of kids don't get setback and life. For years. Over not going to school and how do you accept the fact that like yeah our society was already deeply divided. And like some people like frankly all of us here podcast sit at home every game. And can work whereas like a lot of people in America can't you know like we it's it's it's increased. It increased our awareness of the divisions but frankly I think a lot of has gotten papered over I like people whacking their fingers and saying like are you wearing a mask outside. These are critical tradeoffs and what we kind of like and tried to operate. Bicycle and get these people die we cancel slightly down. Right so let these two mutually exclusive things you know and you have to pick some combination of those right hand like me you'll unit to be or. Explicit. About this compensation. It. I guess part of the lesson here as would many things is that it seems like partisanship has not served well. A year or rigorous discussion using evidence and Europe. Trying to get us to a place where we're talking about the actual issues verses. Signals and Coulter and things like that of course the two parties felt that they had very particular political gains or losses based on the way to frame that pandemic for most of the year. You know I guess we'll continue watching to see if any of that has changed now that the election is over and of course lawmakers. And you know. Future president Biden. Our guard to be talking about how how to deal with us now what kind of economic relief for stimulus. What kinds you know if there are anti national nationwide efforts to combat covad and then of course. You're basically getting ever so we will keep an eye on this and power politics tracts of that but I think that's it for now so I figured eight. Thanks Clark X. And thank you. And just as a adds up to our listeners this Thursday of course it is thinks giving. We are going to be taking a break from our second podcast this week as a result. But I hope everyone can enjoy whatever it thinks giving their people to have during these tough times. But until next week my name is Gayle hunter Toney chow is in a virtual control room Claire editor Curtis is on audio editing. You get in touch right emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave us a rating or review apple podcasts or or tell someone about us thanks for listening and. And yeah. I.
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