Transcript for GOP Debate Winners and Losers
Statistics bureau's. Harry Antonin Claire Malone are there are guys what you think we checked in with you before the debate. What are your takeaways now. Claire taken. Well I think. I think we BO came out of that dings from this. And I think you nice it is before and we've been sort of live blogging calling people around him trying to live blog this week. I'm and it it's really starting to be sort of a scramble a scrum for that sort of second third place finish. I think that's right I think the main thing that we shouldn't lose track of is that Donald Trump was favored if you look at the 538. Models for instance Donald Trump was the favorite heading into this debate and it between 65 and 75% chance of winning depending. Which exact work history look at. I didn't see anything that happened tonight that makes me think that Donald Trump isn't going to win on Tuesday he's still a heavy favorite. Right I mean either people like K sick people are saying there is a little bit of bump at some polls who knows battle there out but. Christie was going pretty hard at Christie case ticket bush olive a certain kind of establishment plane or the New Hampshire Elaine if you they're kind of appealing to that sort of independent voter. I just remind everybody we are down to nine candidates now on the Republican field from seventeen. Originally I'm curious who you think. Might be some of the first said Nady bow out in the days ahead. Based on their performance tonight. You know. I was thinking before the debate that. John Kasich and Chris Christie and Jeb Bush one of those three year two or maybe all three of those might drop out. After Tuesday's result. But tonight actually really muddled that because that was based upon the belief that Marco Rubio was going to be able to coalesce that more mainstream conservative vote. And it backed Marco Rubio file flatness face the night and Chris Christie came at the very strong performance and John case against right there with a real plus I'm just not sure. Yeah I would still say that case it in and Christiane eat more likely to need to be to drop out it force a jab. Bush has a lot of money. He's got Lindsey Graham operation to sort of pick up on the South Carolina lot of connections there so I'd say you know it they've definitely been made more interesting tonight. But I still remain a little bit skeptical about whether or not people stay in the past. Passed Tuesday it Hampshire. And I want to ask you guys about about polling and there's been so much chatter about getting too much into the weeds of the technicals appalling but what got me going into the Iowa caucus last week. Almost every poll had trump had trump when he met that guy ever you guys projected him to win protector is one. Are we in in New Hampshire Abby do you see any potential for big surprise that kind of defy the polls here beat Tom. I would save a few things first off in fact every single poll like trump winning it wasn't just must and they all had a morning. But in New Hampshire historically I mean look. Eight years ago Hillary Clinton came into the democratic primary trailing Barack Obama by five plus percentage points every single poll. And then she won by three percentage points Election Day. New Hampshire voters are fickle. We can't be sure from these polls what exactly is going to happen yes we believe that Donald Trump is favored to win. But still he's only 65%. To 75% chance of winning. That means there's a 25 to 35% chance that somebody else might went so we just don't know we're gonna have to wait to read the results. On Tuesday night as they comment. Critically ready and there are now. Extra surprise and certainly from the experts at 530. All right we'll wait and see along with you guys thanks Harry serving them alone for joining us tonight.
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