Transcript for 'Do I buy that Bernie has a shot at the nomination? Definitely': Nate Silver
our new one nation government, a people's government, will set out from constituencies that have never turned conservative for 100 years, and yes, they will have an overwhelming mandate from this election to get Brexit done. Boris Johnson winning over the labor party on Thursday. We'll talk about what that might mean for the election. Here at the round table, we have analysis from Nate silver. Like corbyn, Bernie Sanders calls himself a democratic socialist, and he has been a steady number two behind Joe Biden in national polls after that sustained run against Hillary Clinton in 2016. So we asked Nate to take a look it a Sanders' chances of winning the nomination in 2020. So the democratic primary hasn't been that chaotic, but there have been a few meaningful shifts in the race. There was kamala Harris' quick rise and then fall, and Pete buttigieg in New Hampshire. Warren has spent months fighting in the polls, only to lose momentum in the last few weeks. All the while, Bernie Sanders has been chugging along at between 15% and 20% in national polls. The support has barely budged second only to Joe Biden. It's therefore easy to forget about Bernie, and he has gotten less coverage in the media than the other front-runners, but he's still in a pretty decent position. He's within striking distance of winning both Iowa and new Hampshire. According to the 538 polling average, buttigieg currently leads Biden in Iowa, but it's by about one point, but it's basically a three-way tie between he, Biden and Sanders. It's the same way in new Hampshire. His support has edged up in California which has votes on super Tuesday. Here's why that matters. Sanders is close enough to Biden nationally that bounces from the early states especially in Iowa, could make the rest of the race extremely competitive. Of course, being in striking distance in Iowa and new Hampshire and Nevada is not the same thing as winning those states and if he manages to win an early state or two and close the gap on Biden, you would expect the party elites to make moves to stop Sanders. Do I vie that he has a shot at the nomination? Definitely I do. Look. If you pick one candidate in the race, it would be Biden. He's fairly robust, but Bernie has as strong a hand to play as anybody else.
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