Nate Silver: What political betting markets say about Elizabeth Warren's 2020 chances

In the "This Week" segment "Do You Buy That?" FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver examines what political prediction markets say about Sen. Elizabeth Warren's and Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2020 chances.
1:53 | 06/23/19

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Transcript for Nate Silver: What political betting markets say about Elizabeth Warren's 2020 chances
On night one of the democratic debates this week, the highest polling candidate on stage will be Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren. And this week political betting markets started to favor Warren, suggesting she's Joe Biden's biggest competition for the democratic nomination, edging out Bernie Sanders. So we asked fivethirtyeight's Nate silver, do you buy that? If you go to political prediction markets where people bet on political outcomes like they would the NBA finals, these markets have Warren with about a 21% chance of winning the nomination and Bernie at 16%. So, do I buy it? If I were looking only at national polls, I might not. However, if you look at polls of early states, for example, the recent "Des Moines register" poll in Iowa showed Warren improving from 9% to 15%, and you've seen him drop. You've seen him at 25%, now 16%. Also, if you look at polls of people who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, Warren has to do better than Sanders there who is still relying a lot on name recognition from four years ago. Factor number two in her favor is that she actually has spent a lot time building bridges with the party establishment. The establishment does have a lot of influence. Number three is I think she forms a better contrast with Biden. She for one thing is a woman. Almost three in five democratic voters are women. Also, the level of deals she has to policy substance is a good candidate to Joe Biden who is trying to leave things up to the imagination. And just one more thing, Warren right now is hurt by perceptions that she is not electable, that she might have a tough time beating Donald Trump. The thing is though that electability concerns can melt away once a candidate begins to show success and gain momentum. I think she actually has room to grow there. If I were putting my own money down, I would have money on Warren than on Sanders.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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