Transcript for Nate Silver: Do today's polls show who will win the Dem nomination?
The first thing we have to do is get rid it Donald Trump get him out of office and once that happens the rapids fire. First significant change. Now is the time. The standard with the working families of our country. And and the outrageous level. Of greed and corruption. Fear and complacency. Does not win an election is pulp and cart rage for wins Phil black check. All the top Democrats took the stage of Friday's liberty and justice dinner in Iowa now that dinner has been a turning point Hillary Clinton. Was still leading Barack Obama when he electrified Democrat back in 2007. -- Jill Biden still the front runner in our latest national poll we asked Nate Silver from 538. To examine what will lend this far out. It's where one year away from the general election let's take a step back and ask how accurate are polls at this stage of the primary campaign. Does a candidate leading in polls now usually go on to win their nomination. My colleagues at 538 took us back in time. Look at the polling and every competitive primary since 1980. There are fifteen of these in the person leading in the polls at this point in time when an hour and a I'm sure a bit more than half. That includes both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump equity sixteen plus some other obvious name Ronald Reagan in 1980. Bob Dole in 96 Al Gore in 2000 it set for a that also means there were seven upsets although some more big upsets. For example Romney had fallen behind Herman Cain of all people in 2012 but Ronnie had been ahead in the polls for most of them it's. Obama in 2008 was not that big an upset either. He was in a strong second place pulling a 22%. Instead Obama's position was more like the one that Elizabeth Warren finds herself in now. But there were hurt other bigger upsets. John Kerry was polling at only 9% at this point in 2004 before eventually over how linking. John McCain's only 16% to Rudy Giuliani's 30% in 2008. And Bill Clinton had just 6% of the vote at this stage of 1992. One market. We did not look at totals of the 1976 racist there weren't a ton of pulls back then. But Jimmy Carter clearly came from way way behind the low single digits based in the polls we were able to find. Which could be good news for mayor Pete who is polling at around 7% he could still come back and win his nomination through. Thanks a nation that you can read his analysis at 538 dot com.
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