Transcript for 'Things look a little better on the margin for Trump': Nate Silver
leading in many of the battleground states. It's interesting that Joe Biden has spent 600 days outside of Wisconsin, a battleground state, I think they ceded wisconsin. They don't have a ground game, there's not energy on the ground and the president absolutely has a swell of energy and we're starting to see this in the national polls finally. There you see the RNC chair. Our latest poll shows while Biden supporters have become more enthusiastic, trump still holds a sizable lead in that category. 65 to 48. We asked Nate silver about he makes of trump's chances as the GOP convention is set to start. Will are some high-quality polls that show trump's position slightly improving and others don't. Here at fivethirtyeight we're all about the polling average. Our average does have trump's approval rating up at 42%. But it's less clear whether his position against Joe Biden has improved. In our average before the conventions began, trump trailed Biden by 8.4 percentage points nationally. A tiny bit better than his all-time low. So maybe there's the slightest hint of improvement. But let's zoom out. Let's think about the big picture, Democrats tried to stress at their convention last week -- covid, economy and the protests. Covid cases have begun to decline a bit, but Americans are still living with disruptions from everything going back to school and college football. The S&P 500 just hit an all-time high and employers added 1.8 million jobs last month. Estimated 20 million people participated in protests. There's some evidence that views on racial issues like discrimination have revert back to before the protesting began. So I buy things look a little better on the margin for trump. But there's one number that should really worry the white house -- that number is 51% which is Biden standing if the poll before the convention began. Hard to be a challenger already at 50. Trump will have to hope that polls are wrong.
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