'This Week': Nate Silver's Oscars Analysis

ESPN's FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver on building a Best Picture nominee.
3:00 | 03/02/14

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Transcript for 'This Week': Nate Silver's Oscars Analysis
You see an exit from L.A. Forget it, Jake. It's chinatown. What are winning movies usually about? While relationships between women are less likely to get the nod. I must have missed the passage that said all abuse is heaped on the mother of the bride. The most common, husband and wife, father and son, and then followed by a mother and son. You should have thought about that years ago and worked for it. There a doctor in the house? I'm Dr. Theyier. If so, you may have a shot at being nominated. Doctors, singers and dancers are the top three favorite movie professions come Oscar time. Followed by reporters and lawyers. You're a journalist. I used to be. A Roman catholic. Yes. Well, no, I used to be. What was the number that surprised you the most? Face slap. How often movies that have been nominated for best picture contain literally a slap in the face. Snap out of it. 31% of best picture winners involve a scene where somebody's slapped in the face. ♪ So how does all this math add up for this year's Oscar front runners? Can I speak to you about a car? "12 years a slave," what did you find? It adheres to the monumental themes. The husband and wife relationship is a core element of the plot. There's loss, there's death. Folks overcoming adversity. It does have a signature Oscar appeal. "Her," this seems most out of the box in terms of your data. Hello, I'm here. Hi. I think that's right. It involves few classic themes. Maybe that means, we're not trying to predict too much here, but the chances maybe aren't quite as good. If I make a movie in New York about a doctor and a husband and and wife relationship. She gets infuriated and slaps him in the face, so far I'm cooking. If you see a bunch of face slapping films nominated next year -- We'll thank you. I'm glad we solved that. We kick off the Oscar coverage at 7:00 P.M. Eastern followed by the oscars at 8:00 right here on ABC. We'll be right back. Text2 Test message cc1 Test message Welcome news from Afghanistan this week. No deaths announced by the Pentagon. We end on that happy note. Thanks for sharing part of your Sunday with us. Check out "World news" with David Muir tonight. And I'll see you tomorrow with the "Gma" Oscar show live from

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