Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Oct. 5, 2018
Yeah. The classic version of 538 house for currently gives Democrats. For re in for more chance of winning a majority. And accused Republicans. Want. According to our forecast there are currently sixteen districts in the country that are considered Hossa. One of those is tact with the staff in west Houston. I recently traveled to west yeah. Understand the dynamics flag in the seventh. It's notable because saw the largest swing towards Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election of any congressional district. Outside of Utah and moved to hold 23 points. Giving Hillary Clinton who razor thin victory while still re electing the incumbent Republican congressman John holders. I twelve. Currently our model gives Culbertson 56%. Chance of beating democratic challenge were sleazy flat. In what's a pretty Republican leaning against the district is mostly made up of well educated wealthy some. And post election now shows that the swing towards Clinton was in large part the responsibility. Of college educated white voters moving. Now the question this fall is whether or not those people that's one Clinton are actually willing to vote for a Democrat congress. If they did that would be pretty notable in this district has been elected Republicans since in elected in 1960 cents. Future president George H. W. Bush the congress that's a whole half century of electing Republican. Visit 530 dot com to listen to our report on taxes the seventh district. And to explore our mid term models for yourself. Also he's sure to search with a fine thirty politics podcast wherever you sit.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.