Transcript for Nate Silver previews the 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
Hey everybody it's Wednesday August well I immunity could meet today because we actually have watched presidential forecast and it gives Joseph Biden. Any solid but far from decisive. And damaging electro has Biden that date 71%. Chance of winning Electoral College from actually 9%. Coincidentally or not the same odds as our final or Cass had. In 2016 words that innocent person's chance when electric college try between nine. And a 39%. King now that so people I think she understands is still a pretty silly competitive race Joseph Biden's way ahead right now. But pretty uncertain raised its August. It lot of things can and probably will happen. And by lead in the polls as the president's right now is not a territory being safe yet it's humor. I am. If you go crew are forecast interactive what you think is absolutely. Beautiful. If you wanna say it can rats super team you've made us look so good so if he's all through the interact. Acted to see personally in the hour a new friend Heidi Cox you'll find first. A bunch of masks actually two maps that indicate basically 22 kind of I think randomly selected outcomes from simulations to see it there really are. District kind of branches of reality that children lineup. Manage how much different electoral maps if you want even more example this alternate route to what we call. Our pulse form we have hundred. Randomly selected snaps from the forty doesn't simulations and he managed to concede some. Pretty crazy right concedes scenario where weigh on the right edge here. We're buying actually means South Dakota and Mike Hanna on the left dead easy he's we're trump wins Oregon. For example right. Those are pretty much doesn't need that aliens of the distribution. You can assess the different combinations are mutations that states that would. Allow Biden or try to win it. A huge surprise. To most important states are winnowed to this what we call it our cleanest snakes char. Where lines of the seats in order there forecasted. Margin of victory or defeat border are backed. CC right now obviously we call tipping point state which is we're would be decisive if you start at a policy to administer the economist at credit is the only beaded 200. In semi electoral them right now is Wisconsin which is Selena was to be going state. In 2016. Another possibility it could easily wind up being tipping point. Two prominent ones are Florida has 29 electoral votes and Pennsylvania. Are basically his teammates to me. I am you can either take kind of in northern route ending that. I Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Michigan don't forget Minnesota here either which is actually another close state. Or and in Sunbelt strategy and win. Florida Arizona. North Carolina Nady Georgia and Texas he went a little bit more exotic island activists who notes. Medina repentant and of course what happened Hillary Clinton twists and as she kind of guy the worst of both worlds she made gains and it's like Texas that all along actually winning here. And she underperformed in the midwest and the Miami it. Race does. Enter Ronald thinks the liberal and an act get closer Brandon nicely growing. Dan and our models still things that Biden. We'll be disadvantaged in very close race Electoral College actually it's not quite as the gap solid Clinton. It's still. If rightful she knew that hey how about an interpreter will be basically I. Our model waiting to complete many Electoral College miss this case again we would encourage you to and it produces interactive when we could doesn't things were not just. Hedging our bets are covering our butts we're saying. You were hurled is an uncertain place anytime of coated. Anytime I'm down from and it doesn't look colloquial but you don't actually we are meant that he's playing Harry counts were what you think heard some really bust ways. The united uncertainty of the marketer. In the forecasts are historically. Polls in obvious. Don't tell you all that much about what's gonna happen in November now would you rather be points ahead like Joseph Biden. Or eight points behind like downtown he certainly rather be Joe Simpson Chancery chances it's pretty decent. But people that this election is over I think you're not paid enough attention is still pretty early people should avoid. Overconfidence about what's happened and a member there. There.
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