Transcript for Nate Silver doesn't buy that Trump's fate is sealed, 'a lot could change in 100 days'
As we've been discussing the covid pandemic continues to spread here in the U.S. One big question -- does anything matter more for the president's election prospects. Fivethirtyeight's Nate silver weighs in. I'm putting our finishing touches on the model. There's an extra come mri case and that's coronavirus. Right now the numbers on covid are bad both for president trump and the country. We're averaging around 70,000 cases per day and 58% of Americans now disapprove of trump's handling of covid. A number that has been climbing since the crisis began. But it's tough to know exactly what the world will look like in November. One covid model for instance predicts a wide range of possibility. We could plateau or see a decline of 80%, 90%. Other models forecast it getting worse with a possible second wave in the fall. A paradox, the more worried people are the more careful they are. That can lower the spread. Good news can make people complacent. There are a lot of unknowns. Probably too optimistic to expect major progress on a vaccine and people's behavior around issues like mask can change. How do you account for this in a election model? Basically you add more uncertainty. We found historically when this are lots of major news events, an election becomes harder to predict. While he's clearly in trouble, I don't buy that trump's fate is sealed. A lot could change in the next hundred days. A turnaround in the covid situation by the fall could make the election more competitive. Thanks to Nate. We're looking forward to his forecast and ABC news is out with a new interactive election map, where you can create your own map on how each side can reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes. We'll be right back with the
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