Biden is set to be president. What comes next? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.
33:35 | 11/07/20

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Transcript for Biden is set to be president. What comes next? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Route sixteen teams like Mrs. Brown apple it's being. Since Hubert Allison George that'll. Stick strictly control let's say that if that's a lot of work can you be your question Galen. We gonna have a senate forecasts. Hello and welcome to the art pretty politics podcast I'm one group. Joseph Biden and Tom Harris have won the 2020 presidential election. This morning Barry's networks call Pennsylvania swore the vice president former vice president. And other networks have described his win their ask a parent and so with that Joseph Biden now adds 273. Electors in states that have been projected war where the winner is apparent. We're still waiting for results from Arizona and Nevada Georgia and North Carolina. It walks like Joseph Biden is likely to pick up Nevada and Arizona. It seems like he's favored in Georgia although that's also looking like it will grow to a recount. North Carolina it's still looks like president trump as they prepare but we will see. Of course if Joseph Biden were to win Georgia Arizona and about it in addition to the states already projected the winner and he would win 306. Electors of the Electoral College. Which is this a victory that president rob Pratt in 2016. In terms of numbers of course. It's different states so Biden has flipped that blue wall back into democrats' column. And Alter he's. Books like he could well pick up two key Sunbelt states in Georgia and Arizona so we've a lot to unpack in this election it's been a long. Four or five days. However you count it. And also does not going to be our only podcast on the topics are work aren't you talk about. Polling mandates. Policy. Indonesians. Demographic divides and all act and that kind of stuff in the days and weeks to come. But right now we aren't you mark this this new projection and talk about now. What it means. Ian Ian it reasonable amount attack but we have lots more to talk about in the days and you're with us to do not is editor in chief and it's over any. Everybody. In tears still in the ABC's Judy as you really just set up shop you must be written living their right now. I suppose you're seeing that kind of TV correspondent report on the list. All of us is in politics under Perry bacon junior Eric. And calls us it is politics editors are cross and tickets are. Originate kick us off in terms of what this electoral map looks like a lot of people sorted. Jumping to conclusions are forming narratives on Tuesday night and it took us awhile to get to this point because of the we do it and the pollution that we've talked route on the spot cast in that male votes would lean towards Democrats took longer to count those. Male votes. But where have we ended. How decisive the victory is this for our arch of art Harris. We just start by saying I think it's actually kind of quite difficult. To put things in perspective immediately after watching this call in part because like you like literally in the bubble. Right. Your concern my thoughts and tasks that you have to news selection committee for a string so it's like not always the best actor let. America and I can kind of written. The pieces are register for just after the elections. In the past like usually went before is actually pretty good and afterward. And it sucks so. You know populace and this time like there's something in adults kingdom but like the world that we use in the article a group was convincing win effort to abide. Convincing because of the geographic Brett and it where he's when he back Ruble states and Houston when Georgia. I think it probably homeowner's policy it's well but it's actually. Is gonna win the popular vote ballots have been. Million goats are about 452%. Annual more than five and where I was where guests. You know he's improved on Clinton's margins in like new England's as a kind of four cores of the country's doing. Krewell in different ways. It was not a landslide. It was not. Particularly in night at all for Democrats running for congress only. Importantly and the chants and win. The senate with these two torturous that it's a lot of Vermont I think. But you know it's a win that you told Democrat a year ago showed them a map should might mean in Georgia. You know or his own. Maybe it's district are differences in Nebraska right. I think and say okay we'll take that it's not easy to beat incumbent president truck went last time in Joseph Biden and Pamela Harris. Got some things done that and report in Tim Kaine did. Perry what do you make. The results here in terms of which states ended up in democrats' column persons which seats we might have expected but didn't get there. And some of these trends that received so far in the electorate. So it's as I was looking I met here my guess is yes last week. Biden won Wisconsin. The les you know less than a point you know get to a point at this little small expected. Michigan is clean Michigan was sort of in the rain expected Pennsylvania is closing expected. I mean. The Texas iPod tech movie a little closer looks like Biden's and that was about five or six some of the pulls us in Texas closed some of them not. You know Florida was close again that I. Think I wind of this thinking when do you want her to points either way it looks like trump won by around three of four so. Yet I think it's like him. But I Biden won he won we talked for you know for years that Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania he won those three states. As we Aziz as his has been discussed those were key states. Arizona assuming we expect that he might win and he did Georgia's adjusting so. Is spoke in mid terms of the other races it looks like the Democrats didn't under the house because it was surprised probably the most I would guess Democrats gained seats in the house. And they definitely have lost seats in the house and a little more complicated because we don't know where Jordan an in depth being. And in that you don't get down to get the state legislators say legislative level. Democrats W did worsening once you in the state legislative races until matter because that comes and it will affect re disagreeing. And ultimately affect a house margin for the future. Yeah it looks like Republicans are Gannett control many more state governments that the Democrats and so what the census comes out and it's time to district to 20/20 one we'll have much more control over that process of drawing political maps for the next decade and about something that. Democrats were really working on after 2010. Obama was working on Eric Holder was working on it on building up democratic power in state legislature isn't that a doctor or the way that they want it. Sarah I know that you have started to look at some of the exit polling some of the demographic trends and divides in the country what sticks RT arms. Alone I guess there I want to start by echoing what Nate said in the sense. He showed me the map on Tuesday night and he showed me the map on Saturday. And had Tino takeaways conclusions. It's just it's such a different picture ray and I think that picture is only now coming into focus. Is going to continue to change. Especially to in terms trying to understand some of the demographic trends are seen you know one thing that six out to me was the historic turnout. Not just for Democrats but for Republicans to and I think you saw that in the down ballot races re echoing sad about. The senate now was you know going to perhaps come down to control in the special run offs and Georgia in January. The GOP made gains in the house despite indicators you know the generic ballot which looks at I am congressional polling. Democrats should have done. Better based on the national environment to some indicators were off right but we don't yet know what those where probably if you throw him in an average it's just what it is normally in an election year. But there'll be states where we had queues in different directions and that's something we'll look into an coming weeks but exit polls two one urged extra caution on the issue. For us we're going to be looking at results primarily. To understand how some counties changed. Just because it's the way the exit polls were conducted with people voting by mail at historic levels in person and makes it by the year to kind of get a sense of things. And we want to be careful from drawing conclusions air. Doesn't look like. Divides in the country that we saw from 2016. Taps stock or changed at all I mean did. Biden narrow the gap where non college educated white voters with wipers in general. You know teach how much to trump narrow the gap with martyrs of color or Hispanic voters in particular. Rates are so looking we have looked at prior to the election and a piece Jeffrey Skilling had done for this site easing nation's ski stayed. Was breaking down different demographic groups seeing that Biden was making gains among white voters without a college degree it doesn't seem born out and the results yet I would again caution that you know more result boats are still peaking counted. The final certified votes for some months away from that to that trend will become clear I think in the coming weeks. But we also you know in that story I mention we side trump making gains among Hispanic voters. Among black voters but again at the margins Perry actually wrote a really great piece on this today for the site talking about that where. At the end of the day Biden sold on those groups that there could be an indication. Of perhaps new trends again maybe centered around education. That are gonna continue to fighter countryman thing Ford but I he has attended this case to draw too much from that. The piece I was trying to that was basically little bit like if I had to saying what was unique about the selection or what was in part as a personality. This stability is important artists like moose. I think and I think we're that would like 42 states will vote for the same candidate last time. At least in that might get to 44 that would outlast the other and guessing a lesson or Republicans at least 42 states but Hussein or negative for. Eliminate the Democrats were. For by then. There isn't any sort of ships among like the Latino vote in Miami Dade County looks amazing in particular remind that. Surveys I've seen suggests he you know to something like two thirds of Latinos voted for. Biden two thirds of Asians voted for guidance and again 8590%. Of black people voted for by it and I'm still the results we have suggested most you know Biden won any talk won them the majority of white voters. I would assume he won a majority of white evangelicals particularly. Rural areas and pretty heavily for Tron so in substance despite everything has happened. The electorate look the it was also look not that different when he 162012. Even 2000 we have. To you really be coalitions in the country. And the democratic and when it's slightly larger. In skiing number so they won the popular vote for the seventh time in elections but Electoral College wise the Republican coalition. Can't win the election that all you know team. In came sort of close to happening this tax in some ways like all like strong is such a unique politician but there while the results look somewhat similar to what we've had when he twelve or other. Elections there recently I ended. Well depending sudden you get resentment mammy if you look you think you're asleep this. Map. We're heiress split directions working asking of us parents kind of game scramble right I mean like maternal concern for human rights and I'll this year figured out. The actors like. In Iowa. Southern Iowa shifted. We're trying to write like South Dakota. Then a competitive state South Dakota has shifted to body you don't mean in Minnesota. Apparently it's it's pretty strange. You know you might conclude it matter Euro upscale metro areas. In this now right so. Dallas Hewson. Those three. Really. Looks like a little bit of Charlotte maybe not as much in Charlotte. Certainly in northern and eastern Virginia. He did better. So those are important right. Vendors and legal and general. Western half of the country. By June Ingram it would like to win in Washington or California. Even wider margins let's until. We in Arizona are come. A long time. It is wave. In Montana grill in Latin and it's a department Arkansas in recent Hillary if Leonard where. There is maybe a little bit of love for Hillary in Arkansas and a much but there's a connection that state you know us rosary. Central Tennessee despite. Nashville excellent turning little that we were. It's a confusing map you know Ohio. Ohio didn't really read very much is more goat meat on the island will probably closer India com. You know Biden paper to ask. Us toward the united I don't United States name and it keeps changing keeping your result it's around. South Texas a disaster for Democrats. So lord it was disaster for Democrats right. That's who couldn't read write really really. The rinsing map so it's kind of a kind of a mess and about. We're still waiting on more results. The results that we do you have somewhat conflicting messages but I do want to ask if you had to start. Drawing conclusions from won this race meant for the country are far politics. For our divides and demographic trends going forward one hour. In part a couple of big notes of caution actually. I think governor out. Number one you haven't endemic. It's different parts of the country differently when ethics I don't know but explain some others. Number two you have much higher turnout but were. So. You know if for example in south Texas the most shifted. Wait for down from. We're not sure that's people who voted for Clinton or yours or going for crowned or it's people who didn't at all or pets in order to turn out. Number three and one of them laws and its people. And in some sentiment helped. Current happy hire him and certain groups are certain parties. It's sort of where we're so old but it is reported but because it actually IC variation here right it's like. Not sweet sixteen winners. And it looked like or compliance. Urban or rural most of its when everything right this is like much more complicated story and our local factors yours I think like. It requires two mortar careful. Unpacking and mayors also to the polls right. The polls were like an adjacent states the polls are ready for Wisconsin really good Minnesota understand it yet at some point. It's a weird which. Yet and to act on that I think one near it. That does make sense to me at least at this stage was it was a clear repudiation of trump. But not trump isn't just given how the down ballot races where trade there seems to Ben. It explains the popular vote march and write it explains. Why Biden. Has turned states like Georgia potentially Lou. But Republicans have made gains in the house. Perhaps will hold on to this and it. It was not a landslide election by any means and not trying to convey that but it does seem SS you know we've gone into this election I think talking about is it a referendum on tramp. I don't know to what extent it is it you know Biden will now be the president elect. Bats. Republic the party. The Republican party's still make gains and I I don't quite yet know how to reconcile that disconnect. Yet her what do you make of that description. Can reconsider the selection repudiation of trump and and then Ian under dot contacts. What a remake of the Republican game. Incumbent presidents don't lose that often so in mice and so in my view different looks exactly repudiation trough. Is it the same time heat he would units. You'll enough with. 47. Ford he forties. Buildup of probably more a higher into the open he received and when he sixteen so. Was not a overwhelming repudiation it wasn't like like everybody the polling Evers for reluctant as was. Eight to nine points that'll be the slightly less and religion. Left the rookie Jason and I expect. In the same way did I think in in the house races. The senate was always going to be was close and we're in that range of Democrats meeting between fifty. 48 PD TC's that was always close the house I have to really. CNN think about that came out of sort of nowhere to me we you know the class of two when he house members. I dog and a pretty Democrats are pretty good job of running the senator from the unity they ran it strongly to get strong campaigns. There I've bought them at the hospital and closing a good job trying to protect as members of the cease like the you know. The march and Joseph Cunningham loss by South Carolina for example to see some of the classic when he eighteen. To see the way the incumbents in the Miami area lost like dad is the part where I see is them. One I'm most curious but as like. What was the diversity what Joseph Biden did and what the house democratic candidates did and why did he do you. I'm guessing there's someplace where he did better than them and it is Terry does that's apart rebel did. And this is all district by district an errant air but apart rebel movement most intrigued by them look at the map and figure out what exactly happened yeah. The house I mean. One problem is that we have an election with the presidential election and the competitive senate battle. This house it's kind of ignored human partners. It doesn't efforts lands that their couple things which is one Democrats didn't get. In this big surge in Texas like they helped they lost Odyssey to Europe and in Texas. I think because the GOP was so. Prepared. They're. And kind of went a steep cuts such a thing I'll be wary that Texas right in their permits were not very 26 record eighteen where workers this year. There also a lot of whole senate races in new York and California. To be careful about conclusions there in New York in particular I don't think it and it any. Mail yet and that should be more democratic than. The person knows Angela and I think that extra. About various markings of New York State. But I don't know maybe things were just a little are actually like. It works nights at present the American chamber of is a bit more bearish. A number of seats and never eloquently why. Forever mr. actually some pretty red districts right on the districts where. They were often held by Republicans. But for 2018 Democrats when and where they're going party I'd be in Iraq and like. OK well. Republican when a vote Republican down the ballot. And I don't know yet where is Richard Miller probably is currently is at the volunteers dispersed and ran ads so. I don't mean to me kind of mean reversion and outs and hats and shirts. About individual candidates it's much. Dia. We've been talking a lot about the data the map the trends this it is a significant historical moment of course public Harris will be the first woman vice president. First vice president of collar and black and Asian in. This country. Joseph Biden will be the oldest president ever to take office. We are also in a moment where these sitting president is refusing to accept the results of the election. There's a lot going on in this moment as much as. The race has been decided at this point. There it you know history weighs heavy right now. How are you all viewing that and thinking about the next couple months and what a Joseph Biden coddling terrorists White House. Xbox it. So I guess quality in some ways this is eight phrase return to normal that's a little bit. In some ways the bigger story would be if Donald strong. And even the way he handled coat is the way he's Brooklyn democratic values and norms times that he was coming to a second term. I think in some ways that would be. A world watching story there would be hugely. Important and how foreign leaders reacted and so on that would be like. Tremendous news in a certain way in some ways him being reelected would be the bigger. So this shift in how people see America what America is doing it think that so I think in some ways days and Biden is Ken a lot like you know Biden is not the smoke from Bill Clinton. He was Barack Obama's vice president lucky in some ways is that we're we're sort of returning to the kind of president. We used to have on some level it might suggest that the next year is also be a little less interest being. In there'll be a few list tweets we have to worry about. Like these next two months assuming it's from Lee's office peacefully which I'm hoping for. I think we might be entering liken it is what is this moment was historic terms of trouble losing. In Taiwan Harris is historically I don't downplayed in terms of him in the first woman in the White House elected to the White House that the big story some little. I do you think it in the day we might as you going sort of back to normal which scenes. Which would be which would be bemusement. Is. That is held a public it is threatened talked about because I think. Trump the biggest worry is that Donald Trump is not coming back to the light that's by units. And in some ways the election he is a you know eight people were I think my view voting for Barack Obama for this woman I think this is election while it or voting against it originated life. Yes I am. I think your great Cary and it's like. Back to normal in the sense a president who speaks to unifying the country as opposed to lake stoking division. But I kind of wonder like it feels like the Cheney's out of the bottle lake trump exposed. Some real robbed of by aids in this country. I don't know if that brand of politics is going any where. And it might not have ads you know vocal of the spokesperson who's the leader of the United States. But I'm curious how the GUP. Reinvents itself in the senate and the house. What a 24 looks like they're facing justice and finished honey to honey. I don't want to cast too far ahead. But that is kind of a question answering grapple at Galen you are talking about where we're just politics had now and I wonder to what extent. Those divisions at the last four years are still threatens to honor. Yet especially when it. I mean certainly there and present selected before we're the other party had control board vote does congress but. But not as highly polarized error right and currently. Partisan obstructionist era where like. Tenet GOP just you like from day one certain thing. If they columnist George deceived by the way I keep tree is a politically which as recently as a buy and when George. But like. You know can a GOP Duchscherer obstruction again. What is in mid term we're like actually. In the senate that Plainfield was obviously succeed rich they can agree to. That democrats' loss left the scene which means they are. Able to them have upside right you know I don't know and then and then Biden is just as threatening the GOP for various reasons like. Hillary Clinton would be calmer Barack Obama would be. So I don't I think like could you see a couple. Small bipartisan things I mean I think maybe I don't know. And Mike and certain ways. If your Mitch McConnell. Feel pretty good about this right you saw her current problem. You're gonna it. Again probably maybe not probably there probably can when favorites all listen and their worst repeat it he. I mean you know you don't feel so bad about this. It's been hard to know what you can ask legislatively governing questions we are but I in terms of policy gets past congress. But you know 20/20 he's been defined at least immunity by. To one of the corona virus in the end to the protest in due in July and the racial inequality discussed. And to me a president Biden doesn't really need congress to earnestly addressed either one of these he's that much like in terms. I think that's the big potential stories like we're having some of the biggest Kobe case is ever. In you know that this week total excellent but the reason another huge story Americans how much cold it is spreading just this week. Any president does he really advance the in trying to solve that crisis and is open to listening to medical advice so want. That's a big potential opening up president biting into this that they do this McConnell or near Tupelo to within a matter. And in terms of the racial tension between the police and black people and communities. Eight presidents trying to sort of resolve that these these could yet important figures now clear that kind of conversation that's mostly city. Policy policing policies of those those are two things aware that things that are happening in America I think you're providing key. Could really shift with a Joseph Biden presidency and that's something that things. Important and I'll be here is even like even in these next two months my guesses. He starts talking about who will be in a different way and people knowing that he's on deck to be president might affect Tel you know help he has some ability to sort of see. How America react handles Kobe even right now. Yeah one question I hop art forward that I don't know that we can answer right now is we've talked a lot over the past four years of power. Howell president trop rates democratic norms and values. And I think that one of the secrets from this election had he lost in a landslide would have been that. You know those things democratic norms and values are democratically popular and motivate voters against an incumbent win. They don't respect democratic norms about it. I wonder how important those things are you American voters are obviously recovered Camelot in a league media or whatever you want to call it. Blight is a take away from this election former. Politicians that they do not necessarily have to respect the things that we think of as being fundamental to democracy in order to be popular bars. And to me. That's a big question. I mean to me that's an important question. Well the deal and here's an objective I think you can Attica for at me as biased and you can actually say it is is an example. Norms being respected because trump lost and because like no one seriously entertained. Basically and in his plans to steal the election right the court. Well I don't mean I don't really yet that I just mean a lot of his behavior throughout his presidency not just in this election. Any any attempt to stop counting votes and over her in the result of something like that. I mean I need more you know things like tried to get rid of oversight for what he was impeached for were violating the hatch act. I com. Things that we think has. Raised the democratic leaders behave. I think if there had been a landslide victory on Biden's behalf. That people would walk away saying you can't do your practice now I wonder if there is an open question. Now one term. Residents are producers Jimmy Carter. Juror Joseph W bush. Donald Trump I'm sorry. What your presence or losers. And remembered as losers like answered I'm not making the claim about there. Presidencies and oppose presidencies but it you remembered as the winter present as a loser at least for the immediate future. And I think because like people have an eighty election and being called either items phenomenon catharsis. I think people are underestimating. How much I'm kind of to someone like person you're like the stench of losing an election. Right. And Travis going to be probably sore loser. I mean it's hard to wipe that's cents off. I suppose you can get an underground monitoring or. Erica I don't agreement out certain veterans. Near Paris this is a tough question so. I mean this is Nixon's. Terry dribbled a complicated but. Our resident had violated. This need democratic norms getting 48% of the vote. Isn't that something I wouldn't yes would have happened ten years ago the media it was wrong and maybe that's mine. Expectations yet like if you read the media coverage of throng including some of the coverage I produced myself. I was like the way he fired the FBI director of the way you investigate his opponent I was. And I've deeply uncomfortable with some of the things he's done. And the fact yet 48% you've lost and he he's gonna lose pretty clearly to the back yet disclose any need. Is is a little with his striking union will be surprising ice not what I expected this announcing that other Republicans to emulate him he did. As an incumbent presidents lose a native write about it he lost pretty clearly. Death said. The effect tying runs yeah instructed he did he got 40% I'm not release juror cannot what to make it and deals Wednesday voters not care about this. Now I think voters I think that what more ignorant of who does care but it was what Joseph Biden won it. The number of people who may need rest of society is bigger that I would have yet to news. Britney and just to the larger question flake do we suddenly then you know pick it back to make 180 where all norms and democratic values are upheld. Yes maybe it's a cornerstone of the Biden presidency but I still don't think that brand of politics is going an air made camera that I'm that's something I'll I. Persons. I personally very curious bird the 20/20 four Republican primary. And workers. Hostage incident this DR Lester was needs we've corporal. But I mean you know after V. 2016 primary to what extent do you meets with in the Republican Party try to take more control the process and make sure you know there isn't. Eighties crops dial. In and meter is no one other. Meters and articles. But you know obviously the establishment of the party didn't want to win primary. Do they try to take steps between now and when the next primate begins to act more party. War as the top part of the party to fully on the most dominant partner and part of it questions from. In the calming yours. Anyway. Allyn art criticism I'm gonna cut it. Eight. Ever gonna have a lot more coverage this election and its Brussels this coming week a regular Monday. I know that the president elect Joseph Biden's plan giving a speech primetime tonight. Not to have podcast right after you know. Watch the speech if you if you'd like to know what happens. And we won't be human any emergency action. Op so that's it for us now for this weekend it's beautiful outside. Get outside and operas from five days. Clustered. In front of the television in front of computer in front line Claude. It's been it's been a lot. But I think you Mary Kate answer. Think the thing you you do it in particular listeners. Yes indeed thanks to our listeners four hour house. Throughout this election. My team. As the electorate Tony Trout in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show as the rating or new apple podcasts or more tell someone about us. Thanks for listening. Oh. I.

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