Confidence Interval: Will Andrew Yang be the next Mayor of New York City?

FiveThirtyEight’s Galen Druke discusses whether Andrew Yang will win the next mayoral election in New York City.
5:33 | 04/13/21

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Transcript for Confidence Interval: Will Andrew Yang be the next Mayor of New York City?
Ellen what are we doing today hey and it today ordered another installment of confidence. Where we make any passionate case for hot tape and then we reveal how confident we actually. Are here. Ari what's your take. Today is my take is that in your Yang is going to be the next mayor and so for evolved as a municipal election why should people who don't. Well New York City is more populous than poll but it doesn't states. It also has a massive GDP and is facing a lot of challenges from cold in nineteen that the country is dealing without. On top of that it's a big democratic city and who needs New York City might be some indication of where the Democratic Party had. Stats that what are the chances in game will become the next mayor. Now first and foremost in order to get to the general election you have to make it to the rack. The chances are whoever wins the democratic primary will be the next mayor here. So let's talk about the democratic Iraq we see limited particularly limited non partisan. But the you have one or early march from politics is intriguing meetings act act or act. Second in that hole with Eric Adam an 18% its current Brooklyn Borough president and also a former office. That every other candidate in the race with polling in the single digits to varying. With 70% of New Yorkers were undecided and pretty kind of wore out. Now if you look back through history at polling leaders in the New York City democratic primary. You'll see that it's relatively rare for somebody who meetings act like him being currently is to fall off and not actually mean in the prime. We do advocates from 2013. At relatively. But according to use a number crunching from former colleague Harry ended in order to find another case of the proving your fallen off in that manner you have to go back to about 1970s. Another reason to expect Andrea Day might perform well as primary its displeasure with the current mayor of New York City don't want. According to that reason college poll. Still the law there is under water here city voters by thirty dot really backward democratic mayor Berry. And varying other candidates in this race have been working in your city government for while and this might mean that New Yorkers don't have very warm feelings were hurt your government. And might be looking for an outsider kind of candidate like injury who have been here city politics we're here. And finally another grits aren't forgetting his campaign contributions according to the campaign. They have raised funds from more individual donors than any other candidate in the history of running for New York City mayor now of course more than half. Half of those donations have come from outside of your city because after all he is and nationally known figure. Irate so how confident. I'm not quite ready to dial style but I. Yes he's leading in the polls that we've seen. But that's not that many polls right and so we will want you robust number of polls from nonpartisan polls are actually put all our trust in the second oval. There's high levels of undecided. And want this poll there were 50%. Of New York City democratic voters who act. That could lead to a lot of volatility in the poll another reason to be on or about it and that is in the race in the use of race or its. York city is going using race for voting in this primary for the first time. And that means New York Democrats will be able to pick their top five candidates for mayor. Rank them from one to find it. And then there will be essentially an instant runoff calculation. Bear if your first choice doesn't actually get 50% or above of the vote. Then your secretary. Fortress fortress and it. So the person who ends up winning this primary. What actually have to be a consensus. Now there is some evidence that especially because of injury gains high levels of name recognition he could be team shows up a lot of people lists. Simply because people know. That could help but again this is a new process and we don't actually. Finally in New York City primaries in fact in New York State primaries you can only vote in the primary here actually registered with our. It hurt me pulling support from people who independent or unaffiliated. Who made actually registered as Democrats and therefore not able to vote in the as I mentioned at the beginning right now we're talking about it. In such a democratic city is bigger city there's plenty of reason to leave but wins the primary it will go on to win. But of course. There are of the summer and fall months during which scandal current rate gap could be independent counselor and of course you know there's also the Republicans count for as well. So all involved. Those are the reasons that. I would think that that when he bought from your friends if you want to end game will be nightmare your city. But don't act it. If you like this video and a lot more like me or to subscribe to fight that he you hear that but he. Race here but it ultimately. I got. So wherever it is. Since her. Oh yeah. I can lose.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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