FiveThirtyEight: Will Marco Rubio Cement His Frontrunner Status?

Marco Rubio was the consensus winner of the last debate. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, Harry Enten, and Jody Avirgan discuss whether he can continue his momentum, and what's at stake for Jeb Bush.
4:31 | 10/13/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Will Marco Rubio Cement His Frontrunner Status?
Coming out of the last debate we have this nice hit Katie narrative that Marco Rubio wine. I Jeb Bush tried to go after him it did not work. But what is actually happened. In an evidence based manner to back that up is there anything out there that we can point and say yes it's clear that rubio won this debate I think there are few things. One you could look at the polls now rubio moved up a little bit from the high single digits all the way to the low doubled interest. Why I think that that thing that you really want to look at is the endorsements I mean this is the thing that we at 538 track endorsements are much more. Highly correlated with the eventual result at this point and the polls are polls kind of move around. I'm rubio has picked up a number of endorsements from representative some from senators while bush has been basically. Right on level hasn't really moved in the endorsement race and that's important thing going Fowler. Yet it push people around us they were like oh he forgot about us and Dorsey from August or something right they've had very few people publicly backed that campaign. Since Labor Day it's been really a couple months now wears rubio not going gangbusters by any means but. You know seven or eight endorsements last. Few weeks I think only take cruises gotten any other endorsements so he's getting his moment. In the sun. That's why I think the kind of term. Front runner is appropriate. I'm at least in the establishment lane. You know I think tonight might validate that order creating new crisis potentially. Okay at the moment in the sun maybe it's the moment and the like you know Sheen because. How it why is it that we can say point to trumpet Purina. And saved in the first two debates they had great performances and they got this polling surge and so they had this moment and then we can stir on the tail of the polling bomb. For rubio doesn't really matter and it wasn't that bigamy dismissive and still say that he won if the polls didn't go Fulmer vulgar. All edition of the polls only very much at this stage right effective Fiorina can go from 6% 15%. And back down to 6%. We can half later means that. Who cares about pulling search right now that might become important. Once we start voting in Iowa her what now we're being temporarily propelled. To 16% and you register that the caucus of the primary and human and that way but for now people are paying. Much too much attention to the polls. So what. Other things that happened last debate as you mentioned was that Jeb. Tried to go after rubio and have telegraphed it that they and advances that this is prominent trying to go after rubio on many tried it and I think it's safe to say it did not. Work and but now it's happening again and so today investor that they. There of these stories that Jeb is going to triangle after rubio and terms of experience. And the marker rear rubio campaign has already released the video that shows all these moments that Jeb Bush praised him for his leadership in the past. So what's going on with this like. Creed did the carrying of why are we even having the debate if it's all playing out the day up. You know you're gonna. Have to ask the bush folk in the bush super pac foe what the heck they're doing because I sure as hell have no idea this is seems to me the dumbest thing in the world because saw last time rubio was ready yeah traumatic for that attack from from Jeb Bush. And this time you sit seeing the same thing with a rubio folks are ready for so they released from. You know or that the leaking from the Jeb Bush folks I don't know what they're doing but it's very clear that bush is worried about rubio he's worried about rubio for any number reason. I don't think trying to win morning show is an attack campaigns sometimes right which certain campaigns that have people who are old hands can do but be more fundamental thing is that. I don't think bush really has. Very many may be no good arguments. Against rubio really. And not any good arguments for himself once that argument of course is hearings are happen are tied together he was running is the default. Joyce you kick the tires. On bush and I use that show room floor analogy too often or whatever. Beat you kick tires on bush and like he's not fact conservative which the GOP context is problematic. He's not that electable in terms of how voters view him now he's not on the experience is nice to be not what voters are looking forward. This cycle he kinda has money. And the name at a time when it name is in the certainly helped to run against Hillary Rodham Clinton. And not much else working for him.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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