Nate Silver reacts to 1st results from Iowa

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver talks about what we can really take away from the first results from the Iowa caucuses.
3:50 | 02/04/20

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Transcript for Nate Silver reacts to 1st results from Iowa
Hello over the 538 newsroom this is the second night of the Iowa Caucuses we usually don't have a second night but you know these circumstances call for one we just got 62%. Of the results in Iowa in answer we're starting to digest those numbers me what are we see so far who's up who's. So we see a split. Outcome which is something we thought was possible the port. If you look at the rot vote count which is when people. Well first preference you walking your caucus site you might be group initially. Bernie Sanders leads that count by a few points. If you look at what happens after voters realize. Which means that you can go if you're not liable for under 50% your candidate you go pick a different candidate. That count. Sanders also leads but it's very close within a point. Lead managers and these but it is not free the same cancer wanting to you might think I'm going from memory here but that's right. There is a third count so called state delegate equivalents. Which he tried explain it kind of is a little bit crazy right basically creates the weight. Assigned to each precinct. Which is based on me turn out. In the last two general election 20162000. Innate. Maybe figured something like the Electoral College where you have a popular votes that certain delegates at a almost a sense that's almost like it's weighted by population might turn out I mean there are some of their duties until college when they call this is not that bright white. In that count because he does better in rural areas and smaller precincts people rich at least Bernie Sanders by. One point eight points or something like two points rapidly as a runner he's a 27%. Understand that's the land that the networks. Watching CNN. You should change the news our network. If you're watching CNN though probably be seeking frankly. They're emphasizing that steel equipment count is that is that traditionally Iowa reports its vote again IE said. Before hands so I can see is unclear to mattress speak for candy right. I said before and I think she treaties. Metrics more equally they are all. Legitimate claims to being the winner so from my vantage point right now we have eyes anyway having co winners or work time. But regardless of whether you pick state delegates wore the popular vote this is still only 62%. Of the results so only 60% Howard representative do we think this is the ultimate vote do we have any idea you know here you little. About. You know yes you take this video for quick reaction in like even the best people in the world. Have not the kind of plugged the state and and see which counties and precincts. Is it from you know it doesn't match. When I would say is kind of other investments that we have seen right where and principles for example doesn't it's actually pretty close and by the way. Biden is doing a whole little better and maybe some of the worst case in last night you know fourth place is not good. It it's a strong fourth place not fifth place right worth saying here vet you know very to provide an iPad for work by the way but like. But like Warren is in third article concluded such campaigns answers campaign. Released data can kind of see look carefully at what you're saying. That this is Kanye and you expected. Because on their last update assessed campaign reported the first commitment to left off. C delegate equivalents right. The British memo said one Iowa at only talked about seat on an equivalence or emphasized that heavily right and so like actually this is was telegraphed by. But the campaigns if you had period. You know. Good I would keep reading comprehension skills that would different things are talking about here are well will get back once we have some care results and talk about harassment thanks for joining me from thank you.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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