Transcript for Confidence Interval: Will California Gov. Gavin Newsom be recalled? | FiveThirtyEight
Anything what are we doing today well Tony we're here to record another episode of 530 eight's hit series confidence interval. Where we give you a hot or not so hot take and then tell you how confident. Look at what's your take today. My take is that California governor Gavin Newsom will not be recalled from office later this year. Activists are currently gathering signatures to try to force statewide vote on removing Newsom from office over his handling of the code in nineteen him. His handling of vaccination policy and reopening schools has been controversial. But what really got me some in trouble is when he attended a lavish dinner party with up to a dozen people at a fancy restaurant in Napa Valley. In violation of his own code in nineteen protocols. Tapping into the outrage over these scandals nieces opponents already gathered one point four million out of the one point five million signatures. That would be needed in order to put it recall election come out later this. There her how confident are you in this despite all that opposition and actually pretty confident that news and we'll survive a recall election. I'd say about twenty dollars. Need some actually isn't that unpopular with Californians. The only reason that this recall election looks likely to make the ballot. Is that a judge gave them almost double the normal amount of time to collect signatures due to the difficulties caused by a panda plus. Nuisance approval ratings while not great. Aren't bad either they're around 50%. By contrast when Gray Davis the governor California 2003. Was recalled from office his approval ratings or in the twenties. In addition California's just a lot people who are today and was in 2003. In the 2000 presidential election Al Gore won just 53%. Of the vote in California. Last year Joseph Biden won 63%. So while I think it's likely that recall organizers will be able to gather enough signatures to force a recall election it's really hard to see news and losing that election given that he's a Democrat in California. If you like this video remembered subscribe to factory on YouTube.
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