Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The races we’re watching on Election Day 2019
Hello and welcome to this identity politics podcast on ABC news line. I'm he went through we've got a lot to discuss on her show today it's Election Day on Tuesdays are gonna look at some competitive races around the country. Who also gonna look at Elizabeth Warren's latest polling and then check in on our impeachment did appoint a. You're watching the fight dirty politics podcast on ABC news. You've got a lot to discuss tonight first of all tomorrow is Election Day and we're watching competitive races in a number of states. Second better or work is out of the democratic primary after a lot of hype at the start of his run why didn't things turn out so well for him we'll get into that and then it. Elizabeth Warren has plateaued in national polls after months of steady increase does she also released her plan to fund Medicare for all last week. So we'll dig into that and here we need to do all of that our senior politics article or more on pentagon. Happy Monday. Also that's managing editor market power of Harry and I'm very good and joining us from Kentucky is Perry bacon junior senior writer carried America. -- it you got a big election in your state tomorrow. We do this does sound or one of those lyrics states that as AM off the year and I does you know not just the midterm hero really on your election so. I will miss the TV ads that is not a cliche you've been listening spears into Election Day Tuesday the candidates I think by all the commercials during the football so I can describe to you he adds integrity. I can only imagine also leader in the show we've got a new segment for you called. Impeachment did appoint of the week or something on the lines maybe listeners can help us name it so there's something to look forward to you later on. Another thing to look forward to you we have some new. Merchandise at a 538 story which is about 530 dot com slash store the created these like new. Logo design things are a bunch of grass and Dina I don't know you're really Celanese Daylon. And also. Good news we were off of ABC news live from little bit we weren't recording. The video version of our podcast because we were changing studios were now in our new studio and we are back on ABC news live on Tuesdays at 430. You're watching this right now. You can see all of the cute nick knack behind us we've got some Lincoln logs. A mug. I literally at our company even like described feminists that. Some straws that's trouble exactly what is that. Exactly. It the helix. And it right let's audio. Let's begin to win an Election Day which is on Tuesday tomorrow there a local elections all over the country in 39 states to be exact. But in particular were focused on state level elections in a few of those states mainly the governor's races in Kentucky and Mississippi. And state legislative elections in Virginia now election handy tampers have in the Kentucky governor's race raided either toss up or lean Republican. And the Mississippi governor's race has been Republican with polls showing a single digit beat. The fight pretty partisan -- of Kentucky's 25 points more Republican then the national environment and Mississippi fifteen points more Republican than the nation. To Perry. Why are we seeing relatively close governor's races in such Republican states. Well first. Well we wrote a lot in 2018 governors races have now become. As sort of aligning the party the say senate race like increasingly presidential liking Lucas and US senate race. Just look at Lee's party wants the president you know pretty good sense that who's gonna win first governor's races you have malaria Hogan's. Unlike in Maryland has Republican you have the Lawrence Kelly and Sheehan is the Democrats are you don't it is a little less partisan. Overall also particularly Kentucky. Matt DeVon has the second or first thing on what will bleed this morning console it is. Most unpopular governor in this in the country he is. I mean he's a conservative Republican he's also like my teachers. He's very tough in terms of his rhetoric he's just unpopular maybe not operator personally a healing and I think that's dragging down his numbers in making this a close race and probably shouldn't. So I mean do we extracts. That. Either in Mississippi or Kentucky Democrat and actually win for governor is are we just surprised that these are close races. So my look at the data suggest Mississippi ID barriers surprised that. Democrat or wandered here into Yankee thing there's the holy has been. So there's not a lot of pollutants that the problem in state races particularly in his red states the the newspaper's library will fund in this model holy book. I would not be surprised this year won this race is because listen our Kentucky's because DeVon is. Particularly unpopular particularly disliked in his needed a close race I still David Evans data but I. Blair I don't think that would not be surprised at all tomorrow this year has a very good unit in the emergency insulin. He's a favorite he's not the underdog in. Trump first Hillary Clinton did the right but it's opulent. Claire Virginia is the one state win legislative elections where it looks like control. Of the legislative body could actually flip Republicans have voters from majorities in goal for the house of delegates and the senate at the moment. What do those elections tell us about the politics and Virginia are now. Well I think he'll be entirely if if the Democrats win house of delegates are to be an entirely democratic central state bank which is interesting given that Virginia. I mean it's kind of like. But he needs an interest in state always because as people are. I was obliged to point out northern Virginia's quite different from southern southwestern Virginia. So it's sort of like the new south come to coming to full bloom if Democrats we'll we'll take full control of the state. But I think what people are are largely pointing to with the house of delegates election is. Okay at this has singer Perry set a fort the super off year right. But how many Democrats feel. Engaged and will turn out and I think people are seen a little bit as an enthusiasm test but it is no I think it's significant in the sense of Democrats have in the past let's see ten to fifteen years tuition paid a little bit less attention to. State houses and that has been extinct too. The chagrin of many Democratic Party activists especially under the Obama. Presidency upon himself kind of said DM ABI didn't do enough to build the party from. The bottom up so I think that's timely and important sort of example of the kinds of victories the Democrats typically don't pays much attention to and Republicans did. And to perhaps it marks a new era of okay building blocks them stay well. At the beginning of the year there was a trio of scandals in Virginia regarding the governor lieutenant governor and attorney general. Ought Britt reports of two of them wearing black face and then the lieutenant governor is Bloch himself. Some accusations of sexual assault and it was kind of the whole state without a standstill for a second doesn't seem like. Any of that is actually playing in to these races and making it harder for Democrat. That's well they're not a pat I mean you know the executive branch is not the ballot so. In some ways it's it's interesting that those two officials have thick governor and lieutenant governor still in office they both kind of rode those scandals out which is. Kind of telling an interest Ing at cortina and in our. In the you know in the trump their politics what's kind of scandal rises to sustained. Irritation on the part of the electorate but am. Yeah I mean I think I don't really know and I think it just doesn't play a factor right now on in those in his election. Yeah Y mean want to wait a competency. But trump is also. There are used to even even if the and executives in Virginia are drag on Democrats have the executive of the country attract. Republicans may be at a whopping lot to say I you know I'll confess that between. Impeachment. And the 20/20 election I am not paid a ton of attention to. These races Adam. Which operation at. But let's not happen but what I'm interested him in particular it is. So we're all wake up Wednesday. And there will be like a plus era of TX about what all of this means for 21 Adam. And in particular in out. The gubernatorial races there are some like there are some interesting dynamics there I would be very caught you know it's like that the election is taking place in Kentucky Mississippi I'd be very very cautious. When interpreting what the result say about when he went if nothing else made to storm in the pocket and a all right. And we're actually going to have a reaction podcast Wednesday morning to those elections jewel Cobb an opportunity to talk a lot more about. There was raises once we have actual results are tuning in for back. But we're gonna move on for now we have so much to discuss and talk about the and better artworks did. For the presidency now if I were Paul when he entered the race we actually did an emergency podcast you know he has. Vanity Fair cover shoot. Hugh is new you know people expected that he might be a front runner in this race. Perry what happened. They don't look cool blame on myself and people in the media I being insane this. I think at least I don't see myself was thought Disney Barack Obama style. Persona based candidate who wasn't completely layoffs. Or particularly synchronoss will do really well I sides better with somebody who. Is keeping Texas went well they seem to be similar grounds or people looking around he was in the San decided he wasn't as old as Biden. I just thought he would do very well and I knew he Buddha Jesus and taken some of that lane blues is pretty clearly fourth place. The democratic leaders right now are three people in their seventies to pretty liberal people one pretty moderate older person so I think part of it is like. He made it. I'll put my solitary I may have missed since the democratic electorate. In its desire for a bent though style person and I think that's among the fundamental revenues we insight on what he did in his campaign my senses. Maybe he wasn't their strongest candidate from sore. Yeah I mean I think we weren't. Decently skeptical of his senate campaign in a week we kind of I was said he's probably not going to win but he is there was obviously a lot of enthusiasm. And I think the reason why he ends up getting into the race kind of boils down to two factors one he he showed a lot of fundraising prowess. And maybe that had to do a lot with Ted Cruz in people's dislike of tankers. But two people saw him as I guess you know this. I was I sort of group that's happened kind of like older millennial younger yuppie whatever group of white got politicians who sort of came of political age in the Arab Obama weathered kind of trying to. Addicts are trying to to mimic Obama's style of soaring campaign rhetoric and all that stuff while also being for the trump age. Kind of playing the identity politics of likable nice wake and I think over works campaign. I think people under sold how much. People didn't like Ted Cruz in Texas and people nationally didn't like Ted Cruz that he probably got a lot of fundraising dollars from Matt but I think he was. Crowded out in. Younger Biden blamed rightly if you don't if you liked Joseph Biden's politics but you don't want to vote for an older man. Vote for me bad over work or as has been a become apparent need to keep it Egypt's. People to judge in government talks about the magician O'Rourke were kind of competing for the young Elaine. I think what really stands out to me in sort of the wreckage of a works campaign. Is that he probably organizationally wasn't fully prepared for. A national campaign organization. Verses I remember talking to people who did you edge. In early Toni seventeen when he's running for DNC chair and he RD had like. Kind of a big deal media person I like he was. Setting the stage where is a work wrote like. Soul searching. Tyree posts which are understandable on a human level but organizationally and you know you you want someone who's not waffling to get into a presidential run. And obviously I think. You know we can talk about any fair covering how much it may be sort of the push things over the hatch turned from thousands of them in some way as well it was a very inning it was the quick. He was the whiplash quick reversal. Media darling during the senate campaign and I think just. You know probably just really it's it's kind of rare that you can pinpoint exactly win. And there it ever tide turns again to cannon and her work its. Very pan plentiful. Miked do you feel like. Kind of arc of better his political career over the past. Two years or so and how he ended up doing in the democratic primary tells us something about the Democratic Party today terms of you know what's viable what's not what's attracted what does it. Louie that's a tough one I mean I I don't think that. I think there are many explanations for or works rise and fall that don't tell you that much. But lax punishment Claire was getting at is just that. The better shtick didn't play well on a national stage right that it. It in the context of that Texas senate race. It didn't seem that odd that he would run for senate. But once you get into a presidential race and you had this. Young white guy running against a beet field that includes a lot of accomplished women accomplished people of color. In the context of the democratic primary it just doesn't look at as good. None of that was within his control relics deciding to run for president and I am. But it just sort of like to hear what he was selling. In the context of aim of the national stage just didn't didn't look as good. There's also I mean. Overwork and Booker were kind of to me the most prominent examples of people communities Parker's words kind of preaching the politics of love rate the idea that. We're trying to be trump opponents but in a nice way. And it it hasn't really Landon and brokers. A polished accomplished longtime national figure and O Rourke. You know can I got made fun of for his like you know standing on tables kind of via thing and I think to meet the last debate threw it into such stark relief. Where. I mean I've ending for calling it the emergence of mean Pete but the most fit bits of those concise way of saying I mean. Vintage really went after O Rourke for kind of being like. Hundred squishy and realistic yet and it was and you solve works in our in our tracking poll he saw works numbers. Really go down after that night kind of attributed to a couple of moments with. With good it is just sort of you know. Cornering him in took into something and. The opposite. Batter's correct yeah well that's it that's the other thing is like. We can cling to Fannie fair we can point to a couple sort of missteps perhaps on the or campaign's part. But look like my other way to explain as just there was a so. Better when Texas did really well with college educated white voters bright. There was a con of competition in this field for college educated white voters and Mike. The hot that many people can do well with one with one group time. So I'm I'm I'm not inclined to read that much extra inning yet. I want thing I saw a knee note after he dropped out of the race for us owe it turns out this these this kind of like. Super woke cultural stance paired Wii is a neo liberal economic world views they're just not much of a market for so is that kind of like to find tune of a read on. Better work not doing well it could just be at the field in North Africa. Aha yes and yes so I tend to think look maybe you flip. That the coin flips a couple times differently and maybe does better also there was just a lot of competition there is something that to the idea that if you were targeting. Like white liberals spoken there's a lot of white liberals bully will quote unquote wool liberals in the Democratic Party right. If you work. If you were. Target Dana moderate whites there's also Tom a moderate whites and the Democratic Party. This time and young voters in the Democratic Party there's not a lot of young. And whites and moderate voters in the Democratic Party and so. Dior campaign kind of pitted away from from that a little bit halfway through. But Perry's written about this Dick you know that section young and white and moderate it's just a really small part of the party as opposed white and moderate. And finally just wrap up here Perry. It sounds like better work has decided not to run for senate again in Texas is that the right choice. Yeah I mean I think they sent us his campaign didn't even do very little campaign. I think he's probably taken some positions. That are probably to the left of where Texas is electorally. Also you know I think one that he was getting you know do you wanna run the horns and do you think the top of the ticket. He's going to be running his own campaign. Like he was running in the sense when he team he can outrun the ticket if you did pretty well compared. Other candidates and actually I don't you know I think his assessment is correct this is eighty billion does isn't. You know your results in the senate race in appraisals here are pretty much driven or highly correlated to the top of the ticket and so. Whether he ran or not this service whatever his specials uncles and when he. Yeah was not enough room. You're watching the fire could be politics podcast on ABC news line coming up next we're gonna take a look at Elizabeth Warren's latest polling it looks like she's -- towed somewhat. She also released a new spending plan through work or Medicare for all and last week and talk about the politics of that plan we back with you momentarily. We're back with the fact that politics podcast on ABC news lies so fire we've been talking about that'll work dropping out of the race. We also talked about Election Day on Tuesday it now we're gonna take a look at Elizabeth Warren's latest polling. And what the politics of her new funding plan for Medicare for all part. One of the defining features of the democratic primaries so far has been Elizabeth Warren's steady rise in the polls from. The mid single digits to eventually be com a front runner in the race. Last month notes she has either plateaued or declined depending on which average you look at. And she's now polling in the low to mid twenties the same house among. So this has happened as she's got an increased push back from arrivals and how she will pay for Medicare for Paul. Which she spelled out in a plan that she released on Friday. So let's start here Claire Dube what's the explanation for why Warren has kind of plateaued where she is in the race for the loaded twenties. Well I think it's in some ways. The way I think about it is. It's the it's the sort of unnatural breakdown in the primary race I think. Warren has better numbers among democratic voters as far as enthusiasm goes. But I think people are worried about her in critical electability areas and that house to do with. I think largely although not limited to curb more progressive stances per ticket on health care and what city wealth taxes. So I think you know seeing Warren and I guess nationally lighten rate vying for things they're does seem to be. She's reached some kind of ceiling for now as far as people saying. Okay is she the one for sure I want strategically this is and I want to send to the general election. And I do think that there are. She has she has good numbers when it comes to collect seconds she's someone second choice straight like those that she shows a pretty broad appeal there. But I think there's a little bit of a hang up as far as the numbers go for voters about what they're not. They think in in a general election her policy platform will be as. Palatable to general election voters in frankly certain states. Via I mean since bill most recent debate a lot of the conversations are under Warren has been up doubts health care. And he has bat. In part of this and there isn't you know there's no real way that we can towel looking at the numbers and that's the reason. That she's kind of plateaued here but is that is that a real challenge for her is that like you know press invention there. I think it's not a press invention because. You know Bernie Sanders I think in some ways and twenty cent seventeen. Laid the gauntlet down when he. When he had his senate's. Medicare for all Bill Ray which every single senate Democrat who ended up running for president sign onto including Warren and she's Alice and I'm with earnings plan. I think what's been interesting to watch is how you know I'm not sure strategically if health care for the Democrats during this primary. Is necessarily the issue that you. Want to make the issue I mean I think in some ways the wealth issue right the wealth tax. Is very pop you know that's a popular issue tax taxing arrest rich. I mean you know Sanders talked I think there's a lot more conversation about. College plans in the last election and it's really become. Police the last couple debates felt like such health care center thing and that is the point. That is the that is the policy point upon which a lot of the Democrats disagree and it's what led to a lot of kind of at times extremely sharp elbow to Intron asking conflict so. It's certainly a big issue it's it's something that democratic voters really turned out for an Tony teen but it also reveals real rifts in the party. Via. Shall we discuss the politics of health care pretty recently and her idol figuring us for that discussion but in general we noted that you know polling shows Democrats number one priority in terms of policies that health care and then there's more public support for. A public option vent single Payer. So Warren has now released its plan to pay for Medicare for all she's sticking with Medicare for all. On now we know what that plan looks like. From looking about Landry who do you think the audience needs for this plan what's the political calculation here. The plan is explicit about not increasing middle class taxes or like the waiting. Is not a direct middle class tax relief. So they aren't affecting you is does understand voters' concern about electability. And it warned that Pakistan's it probably is going to be unpopular middle class taxes. Would increase in the job frequently talk about why warrant has the heat in the polls. I think one but it's a little and as meaty. Her natural ceiling was when he there your identity he wasn't that he's gaining is that this yet does or she can kill let's get on her support as you. Homeowners who edited zero warranted a standard is pretty stable now really warrant yet or social or another explosion is like Sanders I sort of assumes. Yes and the heart attack within. He problematic is seen his numbers decline in. You cannot balance that helped by that'll get endorsements. New England enters day Sanders hasn't really risen Sanders has the state years. And that's pretty helpful to him and probably guess you declined to single digits delegate count warrant. I do think it and warrant is not lose this does not win this primary. I will ask the question of there was a moment in July. Where I would argue it was pretty clear to me. Medicare everybody who wants it is obviously it'd be more popular yet in Medicare girl so why aren't as she really wants to win this thing has its choice. This she acting out on this one issue he or other seven positions that are pretty well concede that Sanders duty clearly political on this issue in shrouded in their way. Or does he Max Sanders on what is. And in May be you vulnerable to heat and by the way they are also be. Easy all it was a hard all Tinder and she made the wrong one electoral this little defining moment you ain't easy. Alina this is a great questions like if Warren had come out for her for Medicare. For all who want to. What would have hurt support done clearly mark campaign sorry thought okay. The best electoral thing is what Paris that is it is weak we state that left and look she kept climbing in the polls. Long after they came out for that so and sometimes I think there were proven at least so far right. But like. Did she picked up in during that time a lot of very liberal voters who. Maybe wouldn't have come on board if she had not state that laughs audit Perry may be weak maybe we disagree here on that. Health care you know poll shows the most important issue except for being trump for democratic voters in the. It's an interesting question but I think and I think basically what you geyser are envisioning is. And Elizabeth Warren campaign where she's running as Elizabeth Warren and all her sort of trademark issues that everyone kind of knows her four. Kind of remaking the financial system but on health care she's basically running like repeat this huge edge asked campaign. In order to kind of compete with Biden on a practical level. And I under she would you guys are saying from the electoral strategic point of view because. Yeah like those plans that are more popular. I also think it is. The one thing her campaign has done I think largely to its credit is have a pretty coherent. Ideology. And Warren's. Reputation. Is about systemic change right it would have been weird it would have been discordant in some ways. And I think you could have seen this weird what happened parents frankly which is like. You know I am. I am doctor Frankenstein mean this. Campaign and I'm gonna like taken it here and there are gonna build the perfect. Thing but it turns out to be a monster Anglican kinda crashed and burned which is what I think happened a little bit with Harris so I don't know I get I get you mean from. From a strategic point of view but I wonder if that would of kind of fallen flat on. To use this word authenticity for a rate. It was a hard question but I do think it's worth noting. The wealth tax in her increasing the original idea somebody who will be. Are very popular with Democrats and the other end and pretty popular vote Republicans with the general election oh well actually not a bad position your electability. A list you're worried about losing donors and lost was his problem but that's different the Medicare are all positions differ ended. Warrant you know to her she's a politician and art in general. It's happens if taken in bull strayed explorations of the whole way. The evidence that she has Platt food. And maybe you can fall on the look fall and a little bit in the polls. Is pretty conclusive Nam are quantitative Laura upon our. Calculated an average. M. That adjusts for house effects as part of this other project. I'm. And it shows. Warren and Lee's plot towing and maybe maybe dropping a lot of so like there was a little bit of time there. Well I think a lot of people work with colon of the front runner or co front front are. And that even at the time that seems like a little much. But but now I think Biden has a clear lead on on March. You're hinting that this is about is this about health care and terrorism scrutiny like you were anti porn and he appears to be going up in some holes ability to lie but has he been incher is just that our earth is that each candidate who rise in the polls. Yes it's an extra media scrutiny anything that comes at the next week and used in civil. Yeah he's an obesity or Arlington. Or something that is coming to me but is now why aren't the media. It's you are eager to run and this is what happened while. It could be about okay could be health care it could be about health care as a proxy for electability. Or it could be a it could be about just this was loathe her she got her low hanging fruit this was always her kind of natural Paul's point. Or could be about. Mean yeah media cycles like we do not know. But to to be fair argues that might do voters even care about health care I mean you then later on said that when you look at polling Democrats tell pollsters that they're number one policy priority is health care so there's got to be something especially when you considered a primary voters to people who were repeat again but we will probably clear care most policy. Maybe but but again it goes back we'll just talking about like why do they care about. Policy do they care about policy because they'd like want to make serve the math in your health care plan adds up and if not then they think you know like but I didn't hit. Hit. Bar and for sort of like being. Misleading with the numbers. They care about policy. As a proxy for ideology as a proxy for but Claire was getting earlier how how transformational. Going to be. And also by the way. As a proxy for. Authenticity. Like one thing I wonder about what Perry was getting at earlier of like OK if if one had come out. With a more restrained health care plan you know Medicare for all who want it. Early on in this campaign. There are a lot of warrant Clinton comparisons right does have largely gone away. And I wonder if jaguar in. Made a more a few more time me acutely political. Moves I wonder if the debt gender dynamics of the campaign. Would have like. Came together differently. Adam to keep that. Gender sexist compares. More at the top of people's minds because Clinton was was. Thought of ended in the general process like tactician and tactician and somewhat lacking authenticity which warrant has now. Bobby Harrison the same problem exactly exactly and only with the yes Paris suburb eating hair and large but I read we're while Y and media that they did agree. Out to wrap up here I do want you mention one poll yeah one. A pull out of Iowa before we wrap up last week a New York Times CN. College poll came out from Iowa showing that Warren is leading there are still bleeding infection rendered pretty well in Iowa. But that Sanders and booted jet had gained ground and so there now bull within four points she's 22 you. Sanders has nineteen but it did each unit and by and at seventy. So when we have talked about Warren's path to the nomination in the past it looked like. You know doing quite well in Iowa New Hampshire in the first two states and at that time she had been doing well in Iowa New Hampshire clearly better than art. If this be climbs like a four way race in Iowa what does that mean for the trajectory of this primaries Clark. I mean this question or answer that question this is the question most frequently asked. And it is the question. To which is hard to give a clear answer but I mean. I was battling it. Out and helping going. But what I what I mean to say is that switches. Biden as we've been talking about here. Has obvious elect coral advantages in the general election as a SR's policy goes as far as. Identity politics go he I ID he appeals to. What he like it or not the key voters white voters in. So certain states may I think it becomes this four person race in Iowa New Hampshire. It does throw things in two. A weird chaotic period. Because. You know. Voters like a winner right voters are kind of simple in that way right. It's if let's say the same person wins Iowa New Hampshire. Even if it's not Joseph Biden who might be that the strategic to choice the time as many Democrats want. And that person has been you know the war and are the booted ditch who winds that say Iowa New Hampshire. Becomes all of a sudden like hey look at can I can stomach that person. What about this for take. Okay. A judge probably has to win the Iowa. Writes he thinks he es not. Not in it I like no he couldn't and I have yet Fisher. Moran. Does not have to win Iowa. Dish you have to win Iowa or New Hampshire price yes Fisher. And she's gotta be like looking strong if she doesn't win Iowa because Iowa is like her nasty out of the first four. The. Maybe. I. Yeah and sugar and sends them but yeah yeah. She asked she for sure have to when one of those I mean booted jets definitely is right because like those those white. Voters are like his people elect orally and he's in its. If you some weird I think you know to go back to. Will Bhuj ages campaign now get like the other cycle of intense criticism I think your -- starting to see percolating and the criticism will be. People who did you edges not appeal to black voters or people who did you do is campaign has a weird antipathy to buy it whatever you're sort of party sorting deceive those. Those fights line. Among CoBiz to a political operative yeah. I think is he also. And how the national numbers that the other candidates have so he would have to do well in Iowa to get that liked or Tina as being a winner and then. Is he's asked he is still ala Jimmy Carter right. He is still being. Intraday stick I think that's again I think to be reminded not keep it Egypt is still think he's known. But I don't think he's well known adults you know people who you know more more people will tune in Bob I'll mop the same old lines. Come but there isn't as it is as. Finally drawn sense of who pieces yet. Let's say an agreement and huge. Said the national policy items are clearly it is weird to be the front runner nationally and so clearly the EE you know. He could very recently finished fourth in Iowa. And third in New Hampshire those who. I assume that would change that an actual numbers of those things will happen salute. That would make the nationals different is let me it would be strong. They wouldn't. He being so strong Iowa and so weekly last residents and particularly. Those little. Dynamics I don't recognize his campaign and the fact that hernia Lauren. Each year. Bernie warrants that in a similar kind of old united the lanes to New York but I think there are some voters are looking at the process of our other. If you're a person and Bernie dated march 7 eight and guess that you might use birdied it's he can win and he's let you. Well I am a little extra fee on top in the state here only is I don't. Adding the front runner finished the front runner running his ability to win state. That it is 41 or an excellent is weird dynamic yeah I think it's young guy running at an Obama who noble work here. I think it's going to be interesting Perry to that very point and we I think we talked a lot about this which is like the order operations of primary states makes a difference in the awful. Like we don't have a national primary that the order matters. I am kind of into deceit Howell campaigns. It's been this to the public I mean Biden's campaign as RD done a certain amount of ground work saying. He doesn't need to win Iowa you know elect. Enough you can we don't need to win until June you've got yet again that it look like that is that is. Most certainly a line coming out Biden's campaign. I think it can inching to see how like how is yet like how has been edited his campaign squaring the fact that like okay. These white people midwest like them perhaps the people in the woods likened to a New Hampshire. But like what about everyone else right like. I think and there's I think there could be an interesting dynamic here because more and more democratic. Primary voters perhaps American voters in general. Are okay with the idea of institutional change in government. My block know totally and Mike. Look dim the mess in Iowa. I think Perry like confusion is absolutely the right response to that because the math because it's sequential was clear said the mass and I would just adds and certain. To everything. You're watching the sanctity politics podcast on ABC news lives. Looks like the democratic primary race could turnout pretty interestingly particularly when we take a look at those polls in Iowa anyway next we are going to talk about our impeachment data point of the week. We found a meaningful number number gonna penalize for a year and see what it tells us about the politics of we're back will be 530 politics podcast on ABC news line. And we've got for you are impeachment data point of the week an interesting number doubt impeachment that tells us a little bit about the politics. Were back. And we're going to be talking about impeachment plenty over the next couple months so from time to time we're thinking of spotlighting its howling data points in the news and for now we'll call this. Impeachment data point of the week but listeners again if you have a better idea for what are called us you know how to get in touch Abbas. And our impeachment did appoint for this week. It is. 232. To 196. That is how the vote broke down last week on the impeachment resolution. Laying out the rules for the public part of the inquiry. Perry what is the significance of that data points 232. To 186. What does it how to tell us. About the politics of impeachment. It just tells us a lot of things we sort of aren't new go where no more partisan environment that you in 1999 that is appearing partisan environment basically had. A lot of evidence that struck and not great things involved Ukraine if you can assume that maybe should be investigated like but I think. What I saw was. Republicans treated the should we have been in peace I guess everybody there. All the politicians like they treated should we have an impeachment investigation and has 63 truck be impeached and and I think the answers the the boat yet basically Republicans. I think the members conceded that I didn't Republican members proud spell correctly that it apolitical the impeachment inquiry. Straw when attacked the winner they can be chosen primaries and that it expected the result of I think we saw. It is this the environment so partisan that Ian yeah idea than Eastman inquiry which acting. Probably needs to happen if not then you get two dimensional world with impeachment inquiry and he's learned not the same question. In that was not always a list so must remember we had that the data on the podcast about. What what the political strategy that Republicans would employ it to most like I was right Matt today and that they would hold the line at all costs. Lucky yeah add to clarify there were two lawmakers who broke ranks it was two Democrats who voted against the inquiry all Republicans. Voted against the inquiry. I mean you should we just assume now that that's what the final blow is going to be in the Arabs I think that should be the. Strong strong strong starting assumption and then you just wait for strong evidence to the contrary. Used you saw a little bit of reporting that there were some moderate Republicans who Wear. Where there are some Republicans who were treating. Who who. We're would vote on the substance could vote on the substance articles of impeachment. Differently I think. We all have reason to be very very skeptical that plan. Yeah Terry. Many had to conceal what was media Democrat excuse looks at the hole in their district. And Canadian shows an impeachment in the urine maybe one of these particularly riddler you know trump districts may be sort of say all the investigation was strong impeachment is too divisive I could see my biggest well you'll see that the democratic team split to vote against impeachment I don't know gave Eldorado for I think that's like this episode. I can I guess higher Perry with Perry and I talked about this for an for an article were working on before that. And Perry Luke Perry predicted the vote almost perfectly. I was a little surprised. Republican members who had announced that they were retiring that there weren't any. Defections there. I am so what you know what's the reason for what will hurt for example he could have voted for inquiry he's retired he's pretty moderate and he wanted to three bought makers whose in the district Hillary Clinton won. Some remaining Republicans who is an district Hillary Clinton won what Y Friday. Fairly cynical period and was applied an article I'll give it more directly knows is that. If you're will hurt you wanna work US since contractor acts and make a lot of money after this race and being very cynical here but I happen and being. If your Republican and US joint lobbying firm you want to make a lot of money yet in this have to assume that sticking with your sided easel. Truck might win a second term in this really useful that so I. I don't wanna say they put money over over conscious of ratings I think he might have been within the issues to but I do they. There's insists is a mistake with the team even if you're honestly leading. Congress look at I think it was the boat over like weather disruption of sin. EOC should go back to her country that I think will remind them differently but I think a pure vote unlike. Basically she's strong presidents should ease to easy bid for president. I can imagine we'll earnestness and has the vote against that kind of a. On the flip side you had Democrats heated and pretty red districts districts that are you know. Fifteen or so points more Republican in the country as a whole order to our partisan mean. Who still voted Reid the Democratic Party lines to open the impeachment inquiry. Why didn't we see more Democrats kind of just hedging their bats especially this close to an auction. Fully stubborn to hedge their bets placed on him to say. I guess that the the two tiered nature of the vote keeps them kind of some political cover. Polling wise opening and it an impeachment hearing is. Decently popular. Voting for impeachment is not as popular. And so those people still have a way to say listen I felt that we should investigate the president I thought we should look into this. Once I was present with the evidence and weighed it I decided not to vote you know not to vote for impeachment they have a couple months to. You know stick their finger in the parents see which way the wind blowing in their district and I think policy knows that. And Lee has you know accounted for a little bit of a cushion within within that go with and that caucuses votes. This will also now marks kind of the public the beginning of the public portion of this inquiry I think. As soon as next week they could start having public hearings. How do we expect that to change. Do we expect bitten. Public hearings are gonna change public opinion. There is some polling that shows that that my. Opinion on. It's okay Democrats. But think what trumped it on Ukraine is horrible I'm want to impeach him right. The Democrats aside for a second. Everybody else is more lukewarm. And impeachment. M. But they are pretty split on the actual substance of what prompted and so I think if you have. Weeks and weeks of the let's let's for the sake of democrats' argument let's say. Well coordinated hearings and messaging. Hammering away. At you know. Multiple instances of a quid pro quo and and I do think there's room there. Not for like Jaco C Republicans wholesale. Become pro impeachment. But what if you know independents who were at like 5050 right now or thereabouts. But if they get to 6040. For impeachment you know that guy makes a difference I think yet Timmy it's not about it's not a congressional Republicans changing their votes. The televised hearings are about. The potential to. Either. Suppress the votes of Republicans who were reluctant trump voters' right. Or two yes convince those independent voters that like in Libya should vote for again I think it's contingent on who wins the democratic primary. But may be etched consider voting for the democratic nominee if it's someone more moderate. But I think you know it's not gonna change trample likely be impeached in the house and will not be will likely Napoli said yeah yeah will likely be acquitted in the senate. But I think it becomes a factor in the general election certainly about. You know being AE. Not just a character test to trump because obviously that has been something that that failed rate in the last election that's what Clinton tried to make. The last election about a character test of trop but I do think the idea that in of people see him as being. Unpatriotic. Using a power corrupt as national security store and there is there are I think there are threads. That could be convincing ten to the swing. None might look like. Trump was elected in the first place very very now currently so like small margins matter here if if the senate a quick Strom. And polls show that. 58%. Of Americans support impeachment and trump has today. 39 or 40%. Approval rating and hike might that would be we were all sitting around this table in the podcast and say. Things look very bleak for trump. Item in regards to 22 money. If on the other hand the senate a quits trop and 47%. Of Americans. Support impeachment as approval rating at that. 4344%. Just say 43. Then I think we'd say. Oh yeah Democrats had a really good start to impeachment kind of petered out a little bit maybe and and towed. And it certainly didn't help trump. But it it didn't doom him as regards to 22 when he does Earl margins of just a few percentage points. The level quality Midas mine Mike does seems very unlikely. Yeah yeah who is 80% popularity. I really got fifty for a couple of days Perry. Yet but it isn't it either aren't. Really there for you eat is almost sixty I assume. You got to get to 25% of Republicans are. B block it and it and then I think that level there. Impeachment is now basically holy what you would a general election yet it was basically only adds it's possible the graded by mystery. People who don't like throw in the east the other don't. The idea that you get to the eat would be sort it is you know went and making my little business. The variance in people's views out eating in her I didn't you somewhat. Limited beyond partisanship aligning our meeting in peace. Going up as democratic leaders and reached its end Democrats keep outward that was that he enters. But beyond. Variability. Republicans or Democrats. Are switching sides and small numbers I think. And I think. Prediction in the quantity prediction being IC a lot list area and political outcomes and I horror. I ha right now. No Republican removal. No Republican rule upper east news in the in the final votes. The very few Democrats changed they're going to steal eased I'll take it assets apparently it is. I'll take that bet I'll take the other side at that. Not UF zero. Anyway and we of course well we of course we'll see what happens and just to back up a little bit I am looking at Trump's approval tracker. Right now and his disapproval we even in the worst early days in order to promote it never hit 50%. It got pretty close it was only 57 point five. But there was never really hit his date there is never a time where it actually at fiftieth and of course it's been a lot more restricted. It would take like. Did this somewhat argues you guys point but like child set the child separation policy. Hold her a bully. And and sort of split Republicans in the way parity. Was described it. Two I think that the Ukraine scandal could be sort of that uniform the morally repugnant to Americans. Maybe now the dominant most of that are of course we will see what happens and if listeners see any impeachment data points for the coming weeks or so. And you'd like to here is discuss them send them my way and we will discuss it here. That's different Arab think you Claire thinks gear thank you Micah thank you and did you Perry. My name is Gail injury each now is control room are in turn district Carlo. Get a touch quite emailing us at podcast at thirty dot com you can of course investment any questions or comments. 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