FiveThirtyEight: Trump's stakes in Michigan

Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Harry Enten preview the primary and caucus contests in Michigan, Idaho, Hawaii, and Mississippi.
3:37 | 06/21/18

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Trump's stakes in Michigan
You're missing it pays your favorite I'm Kyle for Michigan. Michigan's. Michigan matched an issue matters for a lot of reasons analysts agreed say. No matter it has the most delegates on the line it's the one state where you have. May be three candidates who are competitive with. With Cruz in case it. Behind from but both closing in recent polls tell us about child supports the most important part right is that there are a lot of states like Michigan notably Ohio. Which have yet to vote which will vote which have lots of delegates the first big. Midwestern industrial state to vote. And did kneipher Donald Trump it's not just about winning. If infinite. It is an. It's also about what your margins are how much of the vote you're getting because their questions now that. Kenny kind of break out of this mid thirties range in fairly diverse states like Michigan so a good effort on from the 40% of when he Mississippi. Without sweating it. I think extra night very simply put is either losing Michigan. Or losing Mississippi or having to sweat while devotional very tight finish in Michigan heading. Having to sweat the special just a case that because you figure he has to sweat to K sick in Michigan and then he's probably gonna lose Ohio over the border in. In a week. And I was a place where he's actually gonna slack because Casey is pretty strong. A you know I'm not sure what exactly Marco Rubio needs I will say yeah I know he actually needs a win I think if he can copy of enemy either in Hawaii bottom. Well betting markets in locker room you could win who easy he wins island he wins islands and Puerto Rico. Winning Hawaii dealer and archipelago. I think correctly now we violent and mean yeah results but. You've you've both hit piece but the point is that if you can go to Michigan rubio and come above the 15% threshold of when some delegates there. That would not only be you know sort of even that would be a good back at least to be face saving type of thing more than that it would keep delegates away from trumps a mobile. I went and yet and his campaign I mean they were sort of rumors yesterday that people some people in this campaign are worried that he's not gonna do well tonight. That he's gonna win Florida next Tuesday and that's going to be embarrassing and there was this hoopla over him may be pulling out before flight that's probably. Ain't gonna go highly reliable anonymous sources you said I'm Biden was hosting the race and Michael Bloomberg will run for president. But anyway but of course your guess not in great shape he's you know 200 and what. 220 votes delegates behind from yet he's he's. Yes yes K they but he's not going to do. Probably probably famous last words. Adding yet maybe he does surprisingly well in certain kind of voted you have gang violence in the. Probably Michigan had its liberals street is a state. Where there been some upsets. Historically. It's merely big ups that Clinton is up by 22 points in the polling average and believe there's never actually and that they miss so if if she were to lose to be the biggest myths and history of whole.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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