Transcript for Could any surprises still affect the race for president?
I don't think that he thought. What you've told me apart. Or call and find it isn't like you yeah. This is the visit of the 538 inter office feud that much has not been waiting for. Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm deal injury. Election Day is just be days away and about sixty million Americans have all ready voted. That's 43%. Of all the votes cast in 2016. So could any surprises were new developments still affect the race. Today we're gonna talk about October surprises. Wolf look at how it'll leak developments have have been shaped past elections and also what issues are driving the final days of this campaign. We've also received a lot of questions from listeners about all kinds of aspects of the election. So let us sort through the mail back and try to answer some of those questions as we get down to the final week. And he retreated you that is. Editor in chief Nate Silver in the house account. Howdy everybody. Balls are interested in politics Senator Clinton won declare he. And cedar politics writer Perry bacon junior Perry thank you. So. One week lot. How are people don't want are people feeling of people surprise actually violate. The fact that it doesn't feel like there's a week in every day of the new cycle right now. I mean a ticket. Day by day and hour by hour half after people like. You know I wish you could kind of fast forward well well now wellness and he says ticket to get. Tentative ID. And we got a recommendation from what we should call Anthony's overs while it's part cast it's called. 5385. Vegetables three fruits theater X. Let's didn't and first. Let's define what we mean by an October. Surprise. So Claire what's an October surprise is it something that's manufactured. Or is it just like. A news development. It shakes up the race what is while U I think it's. It's something that news. Well this interest in question it can be manufactured. Spontaneity. You know so some good news so. Like if we take. Access Hollywood tape. You know it's interesting that debt pact team Lee in the campaign. I don't know the process of decisions that you know came to releasing that so late in the game but you know that that's backed up it is. Campaigns and people do opposition research and so you know sometimes they're things like that happen. I would say the old actor out October surprise that be something like trump. You know getting coded. But but October surprises are things back to back the definition point things that have the potential to. Changed V. Race's dynamics to sweet people's. From. Maybe off the fence to the particular candidate or to switch there so it's it's something that has the potential to make. An election that's been predictable lawyer summits that the chaotic. Deserve an agreed is not our definition of an October surprise. Well again we're cynical definition. I mean. I think October surprise it just. News stories that happen October. You know sometimes they affect the polls sometimes they do not often in you know when we were doing her exercise to track historically. How often their full wit the New York Times. Headlines. On average happens about once a month now usually space together big event happens to give 45 Edmonton around legal supplements without it right like it's not that a common. I spoke openly of there's lots of news that when Chrysler below full wit. War breaks out in X country near times headline it would still be considered a B development on the campaign trail also look there's a lot of crazy news. And some it happens happens ticket in October right Tom. For the most part pulls actually do not shift all that much. In the final ten days to weeks. The Karen and their sniff each shift in 2016 are relatively for example but there are lots of years where you're the polling average on October 15. Is just as accurate as the one in November 3 whatever Election Day is. Can you put more perspective like on average how much do polls actually changed between the middle October election. So far just fifteen days state shift by an average of one point eight points and a median of one point four points you know that's not. That's not a whole lot right. Now you can have these tales right I think there is lot of stuff in. You know when you have a third party candidate so with Ross Perot. There were some shifts in the polls in 92 and 96 where looked like Perot is not going to be viable and their four. So those votes went more Republicans not nuggets are to test this year right. You know apart from the Perot stuff the call me letter actually was the biggest. Shipp missed when he sixteen. You would think it's getting harder and mean we have how many people voted no to seeking only sixty some million there was more time more by the time you listen to censure. So you know. That makes a little bit harder at the merchants. For now the point where. But now people but what's not just hardcore partisans who lined up the first day it's probably also just people who are making a habit. Out of voting early or are doing so because the pandemic or voting by mail to the pandemic rate. C probably do have some votes locked in now that you know in theory could switch but now it's too late. So Perry. Need defied an October surprise just by a news event that happens in October but from the perspective of how campaigns operate. There are branches of campaigns that do opposition research and potentially dumped stories if they attacked in October is that also kind of unit usually what we talk about when we're talking about October surprises like. Oppo dumps trying to kind of swing a campaign that area and. So I think that's right it's hard to know because. I assume the Access Hollywood Tate may have been or research but I don't think that anyone's ever definitively said because they don't. Campaigns you know Dikembe please don't let there they leak stories they don't tell you we never know how the story got out within sixteen for example. I don't know which would happen in late September or October but I would say the Access Hollywood tape one. The Komi letter was sort of coming and I don't think even he can play amber was an October surprising unit in October. In the third I would say with the Russian acts of the emails and John Podesta and others came out and producer in October as well and that was surprising. News event that also got a lot of cover. Like and I think about this race I would say first of all. I think trust tax returns can you not in late late September. But I think that was something it was a clearly designed to. In theory could have changed as a result a lot of media and out of your hands get tax returns but it. I can imagine somebody working out as a research was working on that particular project. I think he all the various things the New York Post did a round hunter bite in the last two weeks. Were intended to be October surprises to hurt the Biden in being a NASA they were. But I think when I look at the polling average in looks like Biden winning bid. You know from like 78 points at nine to ten points. In aid the period from like October 2. To October 10 and next year unit is a round win. I think there I think they're two events the first debate trump yet covered pretty negatively for and then he get over that few days later himself. It looks like booms are the events more than that it suited. Posing a pretty good so far there has moved the holes late in the process I was not the tax returns. I think it had some debate affect in the night being the Covert part is very important. All of that snapped back a little bit her actually has no nexus just didn't have that long via Zagat which is Tuesday you know there he had a pretty. You know low point for a couple weeks announcer activists. You know. Magnet apple. I guess. One elder. You know of that debt buys for October surprise that's all blow. You know obviously she died in the middle of September as repeater Ginsburg and as we speak three record in Tony Blair as. Likely to be confirmed as the next justice on the Supreme Court. Is a fact that that is not really an October surprise were not even something that came to mind first. Just evidenced by evidence of how much news there is and something that might in other circumstances fat tax has had counted as an October surprise. I think it's notable that not a seismic a news event because it sort of shows that the that the court is such a conservative. Un entities now. That yeah accurately is Katz's that's such a October's surprised. To order at. It was an enormous event that I have to confess I've been a little embarrassed I didn't mean soon. But I think defect and and kind of you know it's a hugely important policy event. Debts. I just seen very little impact elect orally and who are like news coverage why it like trump giving coded. Became like he constant news story people were following I sort of think. You know oddly like Barrett was named I mean. Ginsberg died we sort of immediately knew bared was picked Baird would be picked bared was confirmed this sort of news events. This is not this is an important story that hasn't been particularly exited interest in. And therefore I think it may not be being covered a lot and I don't think people are talking about it very much so I'm skeptical it's having like I even think that like. Might appearances staff. Getting coded and what that might mean for him Melinda you know being talked about more by voters in this bear. Process. So I have one order potential October surprise the at all proffer which is the fact that you know over the past several days we've I'd solemn. The the highest case counts of corona virus since the pandemic. Began now for epidemiologist. It may not be a quorum court surprised. Network carving a Turkey as people move indoors at the weather cools off at Sadr. By looking act passed peaks how the news has hovered them. How they've moved haven't moved voters Powell have events like that's because we've already seen two peaks shape the race. So initially when we had the first outbreak in March. There is a little bit of a sympathy boosts for trump in the polls but certainly ever since then write the period in June when we had a big. Kinda Memorial Day early summer wave. That was appear we're trump was behind toward the higher into the range in polls by nine or ten points when he got Soviet. That was a ringing tree was down by nine or ten points in the polls. Eleven points even in some polls. So. It seems like you know and it makes sense trucks operating on Kobe is like a net negative seventeen. Compared to what to negative nine or ten for his overall numbers right so the more that Kobe to salient issue and especially with. Trump saying things like quote the fake news media is writing to. McCovey cove and all the way to election losers. Like that's not a very effective. Message number one. And and number two it makes. It makes you the more focused on coveted truck isn't talking about eighty Amy Tony beard he's talking about. Kobe Kobe Kobe inhabit a talking back to much but Kobe is the of a controversy about Kobe it's like. If Hillary Clinton is an email nine days before but we've seen elections saying it's all email email email Weis talking got eaten all the FBI in my email server FBI FBI you know. You know I I'll also point out that. There are up ticks in the midwest. Better eating. Pretty packed Wisconsin. And view and mine. Also I think just in general parents are her. We're in the middle public stresses about. Distance learning and you know lots of school districts are continually and fox about like. You know when do we do virtual learning vs what you do in person learning you know people like Hannity and that's not so I think coordinator means just like the issue of the election and how. It's personally affecting you and those are those your Biden's most effective moments in the campaign tedious it is always talk to camera. Whenever he brought out coded it was kind of like well there's. There's the thing that China will want talk about where. Fully take ownership. Yeah I mean. Maybe. This is an obvious answer given what we've sat at our house Elliott cove it is. But why did in. Hunter Biden's hard drive be calm the October surprise that attract campaign clearly wanted it to become. I think because the media didn't. Cover it in the ways that we covered other October surprises in part because there was a line. Of discomfort including from the New York Post to published it. About whether or not it places like how bear fight it did whether or not it was like a reliable source to whether or not this. You know and also I think in general people's. Have been. Pan. Queasy to touch the Hunter Biden stuff because a lot of it feels like you know trump conflict. Calling him you know Trump's son calling him a crack at collecting a lot of just sort of like what feels like nasty personal attacks. I like that the media because the media with trepidation about. Where did this information comes from well as the support and disinformation thing you know like they've been a lot of interesting immediate debate. About whether now we shouldn't be as the royal meet you we should have covered it more but I think that voters. It didn't become a huge story in part because the media across the board including extremely conservative New York Post which just in George stopped the president. You know was that you know the author of the story. Didn't want us violent story which I think says something about internal discussions about. Witness. This is not as clear to you like have but I think that Hillary Clinton had conservatives are being. Not mandated quota quote secretive etc. so the email being sort of played into that. And then homey disgusting unity in the election cannot reinforce people's doubts about orderly Hillary dissident reinforce that. He's exactly like Hunter Biden is not a candidate. So that's one problem it's not clear there's been any kind of one clear narrative about about about by in this negative that voters Aponte. Let's roll has been saying basically that Biden is too old and senile. So I guess there was some story in which it reinforced the idea that Biden is older senile. And the media support to cover bad acne could have at them impact but it's harder by and through the kind of complicated not easy to understand being about the candidates son. As opposed the candidate I don't think the ground was lead for this to work if you disrupt camping. Also should point out that the Biden campaign. Remember what month that that that The New Yorker in this massive pro punter by but it was it exactly like. Here's all of hunter Biden's problems with substance abuse he smeared all the sort of extremely tangles. Marital sot. Dan. And like this is this is out there like he didn't do anything legal I. That was that I can't. I do think that if this where. A quote unquote normal campaign there were coded and it Trump's trump and I'm Stanley didn't have a whole host. Extremely serious. Financial conflicts of interest. Potentially abusive office hours you know like. I think that's actually. Hunter Biden and like just maybe meaning you know -- him in general that they were doing anything illegal but this idea that America that that could push harder lined up like. This Pam Edmonds making money off to what like what's mop creatures but to me in a different. You know it Mitt Romney running against Joseph Biden gaffe that would meet you need something like voter. I have relatives who relate years related you know you're the campaign. Have been like Biden makes me you like weird like why's that I let you know propping up his views. His his father still I think it there isn't universally that resonate politically but not this one. And and like I think it out. It it's just it's it's like. It also feels scout meat because it in the middle public to Canada it's. It just it. Even taking at face value I mean like to released wrestles count. Joseph Biden kindness that no I don't want any part of us. I know I mean Republicans just kind of playing their greatest hits and their hoping for something. Every player between sixteen rightly telegraphing to amuse kind of you know trump got impeached Illinois reform officer trying to dig up dirt. On the Biden's you know I mean it's kind of it's kinda crazy how much was telegraphed right and the always telegraph all the stuff in like. Removing the element of surprise and so that people in newsrooms. How the conversations and events OK well there's this thing about a hundred Biden in and you know Ukraine in this computer repair shop in light. Maybe the Wall Street Journal will. Publish something may be able how we handle it at that your time to rush to post or whatnot. But you know but they're having these meta conversations about how to handle it instead of just the element of like. Shock when you know the commie Leonard dropped randomly on Friday afternoon era was right ominous as the Friday. I mean it's also worth saying that trump urged the FBI and the Department of Justice to indict or investigate. Obama and Biden. On Fox Business news in an interview Rick Maria Bartiromo so like. Those kinds it wasn't just I guess through diplomatic channels with. Ukraine it was also just on cable television for anybody to see wanted to see it. I just a question now it is. We have eight days last. Horror. You know do you think we're done with October surprises. Do you think that there's something yet to come out opposition research from. The Biden campaign trump campaign. Obviously this isn't something that you probably know in advance otherwise you're probably off the record and you couldn't share by. It what are you expecting from the finally days of this campaign. We've had so many surprises. From the president giving Coke music Ginsburg dime that I won I wouldn't rule out being surprised. I do think the most life story is. Mike insists he thought staff as code and it sounds like he has a bunch of people around him do so yeah. I would not look the idea that might hints might have coded and even though I know believe there's a gift he doesn't but I think that's the kind of most I had anything to me is somebody eating Kobe who's a major candidate who is running rubber that seems to be evenly to the pick that back the cases are rising so much. Me it means that that is a big potential. Or somebody famous dying of code matters I think depth stories. And with the story. The that's scary thing that handing me happening in America right now. Introduces a lot potential changes and. Four election. I think that's right we should note that like on the Sunday issues. You know I think was it mark meadows that was on it ultimately was so maybe death of actor with a Rydex and maybe then. Yes there are well my mark meadows was was basically pushing the line that. You know the White House was right to withhold information about who's infected with Kobe because it's at. It's a medical privacy issue. Its soul its. It turned out at the White House were withholding information like Penn had coded. Yanks right but pan in out wealthy. That but I thought that was notable the chief of staff was was absent agents trying to push that line. The statement also became a take away from that interview with mark matter saying court where an operator control and are back. And then later we are going to control the fact we got vaccines therapeutics and other medications. But essentially pleasing to the theme that Americans already believe with that net negative seventeen approval of candle in corona virus. That the top administration is it. Appropriately. Containing mitigating. The parent. We're down to sing like you're explicitly kind of saying we give up now it's also worth noting that you know we don't usually talk about foreign affairs. Honest podcast by just an artery in the prime minister New Zealand just won reelection in a landslide. Based is at least in sub par often have. Dealing with the corona virus crisis and mitigating and so like. There isn't just political downside to the corona virus it would seem there's political upside if the public view YouTube use you as having dealt appropriately. We have the virus and he does it do you think that's like a fair take away from this bit like the corona virus didn't necessarily damn whatever sitting administration. Was in the White House right now it is something specific to trump. Look there are a lot of countries. Around the world. Then it handled Covert. Poorly or gotten poor results from co regret with this huge. Second wave in Europe with all of the Americans basically. Having been hit pretty hard right. You know. More of the world made up population wise is Asia's a lot of population has been compared to a merciful East Asia. But you know a majority of the countries in the world have got bronco right. Including a majority kind of pure countries the US. But you don't have other leaders saying a look just give up right. You'll have leaders saying these lock downs or really awful but it's an emergency so we have to. Do it for a few weeks right you know you have to make a small sacrifice Italians and eat meals at home for. A few weeks right which you put it that way you know it because it would have been a sacrifice right reluctant when you have like these very rapidly rising Covert cases. But there is messing it is empathetic that recognizes that scope of the crisis are recognizes the cost of a mitigation measures as gonna probably also. Fund stimulus and bailouts right. Just kind of basic empathy here and acknowledging. The reality of it right this week cases this high. What happens is that like in New York when we have the big operate in. In the spring right. I knew like ten people like that coping right. You start knowing people your candidate Kobe then you kind of take it pretty seriously right. So I don't know its its basic kind of thing that you know you really can't. You really can't wish away. Any. Final thoughts here on October surprises Maurer you know wait breaking news that will define the last week of this campaign. Spook using the right. Think this is a time when like a lot of people voted it's a little late to be sending out op now. I mean even though like. You know usually kind of treated. Early notice kind of surrounding air yet technically some votes get locked in by it's kind of exaggerated because it's mostly strong partisans. I mean the stutter around here anymore right effective sixty million people already voted. And will be presumably at you know eighty million or something ready and of the week. That makes it tough to drop something in the final weekend and other October many surprises like. The Biden campaign has and a lot of money. And is entering a lot more add some battleground states. Included is expensive answering a World Series in and whatnot. So you know. You're trying to claw back at six point deficit Pennsylvania than being out spin on the airwaves. 21 or three to one is is not something you'd want in your paper. Yet he told me last year will be thinking eyewitness. Joseph Biden will be huge Georgia don't we but for the election like on a Tuesday. I would have said that seems insane to me maybe Joseph Biden to campaign in normal states like Pennsylvania Wisconsin. The Joseph Biden's and George tomorrow which is also very surprising. In sort of a broader sense of where the campaign. All right well obviously will have daily podcasts for the rest of those weeks or we will keep talking about. You know final movements in the campaign. And as well let's move on and reap some of our reader mail. We have received at least hundreds probably thousands of Russians during the final weeks of this campaign and we do try to answer some of your want your forecast related questions in model talk. We have also asked as a lot of great questions that don't have anything to do it coding or even necessarily statistics. That is great questions that we want to answer as we get the wire here. So we're gonna dig through some of those and do our best to answer and how to say off the bat that you so much to ever on Q is. Listening and engaged and and curious and sending these questions. So. We'll see how many of these we can get through the first question comes from markets and it is. What state has been most competitive that you were expecting and what C hasn't been quite as competitive as you thought it might be. Right boxer. I would saying. Minnesota. Is probably the state that I was probably looking for strong to use. More competitive in. It lose surprisingly close in sixteen. It has a lot of it's very away probably working clay you know on a white what do college or without college degrees. So that's probably the state I was looking to tip into the and a truck went there and pianist sixteen at popular if they be more competitive of these calls it isn't really that competitive. And the and so and it's this state I think are surprisingly competitive I'd probably say. Georgia and Texas looked competitive based on when he eighteen and in. Those swing we've seen more Democrats again this year to. So promising Ohio and other places I was not looking. To be competitive and Biden looks like he has a decent chance of winning there and that's not to be expected. Do people feel similar and our other races that stick out as surprisingly on competitor competitor. I mean the swings are pretty uniform so Biden is up by nine points you've basically expect the list distaste looks are elected it is right. You know ice in addition to it. Minnesota you know Misch again. Biden has often these big 810 point leads in polls has not you know I mean a deceit that was almost two points to eight in twenty. Sixteen and unlike Wisconsin Pennsylvania where Biden told it's pretty good with exceptions mission has kind of never really been that close the tipping point this here. I'm. But yet. I mean I guess maybe I'm surprised that like. Iowa has been revitalized a swing state. Some recent poll even two and Biden had diabetic and if you're waiting NASA by nine points and but you can be pretty rates stay he'll be 5050 in a in a toss up. She could defeated in a democratic landslide election. Sue this is a very. Relevant question toward just mention all throat Claire as the expert on Ohio. The question we got is why is Ohio so much brighter than Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin and I honestly don't know the answer to us that something I thought some curious. Why boarded it. So Ohio as it certainly has like a big portion of it that's apple action right so there are a lot of these. Dees white voters that. I think where were energized by trump and and sort of patents have stayed that way like southern Ohio lake. Kind of Columbus on now has a very he. Like southern tinged feel I'm trying to think of like comparing it to Wisconsin sailing why that makes it different but also I think that. The focus that trump put on the states and places that were sort of psychologically felt. Like people were making fun of them and this is that I'm thinking like. White communities rate in these places that felt kind of put upon. Economically. And then from it certainly. Lose your point of view like Youngstown and Cleveland. Certainly had a underdog mentality I agree answer about why that's different than other places Adam. Well on the audio you know one reason I'd say is. Is Philadelphia. For white Pennsylvania's more purple. Material through Wisconsin which is just like it has its labour progressive streak crate I remember reading a toughness right there in Wisconsin. In most states Trappist and better with older voters and that's to mitigate this year it was constant kind of very flat right because. The old people might be more in this kind of progressive left he kind of tradition in Wisconsin. But Wisconsin is pretty girl but like you know that it that it. Northern kind of parole. White areas are places where trump is doing worse and he was four years ago if polls are to be believed. I would use it should to hear what like a scholar like. What news would. Mean a political science and witness would say but the that white ethnicity in Wisconsin. Athens. Ohio might he writes a Wisconsin might seem more like Germans in the needy in. Protestant roots or Ito pop you know Catholic like there's a different it's like German and Scandinavian vs Ohio might happily bar. Scots Irish and like eastern European who were more. And only actively pursued by Reagan I don't know. So little it looks like say the percentage. White voters who were written evangelical. Protestants. Eased when he to receive no. 19%. In Michigan. 60%. In Pennsylvania so fast thinking it's not like apple. So that so that might eaten yet. Ohio is also quite a bit mortar. Religious than Wisconsin. And secular whites were group that trump made a lot of progress with in 26 scene. Dog in Maine for exemplary mean his white rural but never religious at all. Those voters seem to be some of the biggest. Trump to Biden swing voters given that compass polling poorly in Maine and New Hampshire. Compared to poorly in Alaska right it's these kind of secular. Rural white areas that seem to be rare that trump Biden voters are concentrated. All right well thanks to. Our listener who sent that in it was a very good question mean look and activists after. The election when we out more to aid as well. Next question you read out it's we heard a lot a few years ago about the trump team building it's an easing voter database that would dwarf anything that anybody else running against him could do you. What happened to that we're will have an impact. And so I wanna brought in this question out slightly because we got a couple questions are campaign tactics. And we can address that specifically but also. The broader question is how much do campaigns matter because we also heard about how the Democratic Party under Barack Obama had built this you know digital strategy. That was also on rival. So when it comes to reading elections how much of it is this kind of work that determines the I think. It's an overrated factor. I think it's over it because like people that work for campaigns want to kind of tout themselves right people who. Are journalists are good sources and candid at least after election he mentored election. And they like I told inside mechanics at Mina he is visible sit. To the every day voter. But I generally think you know in. Major presidential Jimmy you know probably suffered at the turn it AOC ran a campaign. Probably helped to win that primary couple years ago right in that house race that would be. Pretty off most people's radar. I'm not sure that a presidential campaign. Matters. That much really. So much since wasn't sixteen after the wall on. Jarrett Kushner and ran Hartsfield particular suggested that thrown want to yet use FaceBook well in the Al these ads and so. I think the evidence that is somewhat weak I think it is more the more important factors were Clinton but he told me Lerner. General Democratic Party that he Clinton's individuals and things he did wrong something's trump did writing that campaign. And one point it make is that part skills meant to enact you know basically three years bragging about. House Marty was in the end when the Paul when he was down when chug it down the polls. Strong fire part steal from the campaign so. So I think I'm skeptical of parts skill in Yorkers in particular. At any sort of re weave the about the campaign when he campaigned once. Does not necessarily mean to you our campaign team. I think that the thing that that the trump campaign in 2016. Did that was notable and I'm not sure how much of it was a news. Luke that caught on how much that was planned was that those rallies which. Where played on TV and cable TV over and over which you know doesn't happen in 22 when he. Didn't get him a lot of that. We called it earned media since the air time. Just trump saying crazy stuff whether you liked it or you hated it. And it did get it you know that. That reach combined with the fact that everyone in America hurt you know I it's almost like Ike came out of the womb knowing who Donald Trump was right. And like you note that. That had had an average and the facts and I think that was the innovation that campaign was reached at they had. Through immediately they didn't have to spend at dollars but yeah I'm not sure that they did any sort of super refined. Turnout I mean he certainly did have a goal to reach what it what they called inactive voters people who were outside the political system. But I'm not how I'm not sure how much there. Campaign where verses. Child's rallies being broadcast on television did work. And did campaigns matter is missing question in. I don't generally skeptical citizens being changed style analyses of Al. Campaigns work I guess I would say a during the primary. Front it's in the inundated things some Smart some things did. Build a wall Muslim man. Those things probably were useful tactics in what he sixteen. I think Biden sort of so emphasizing and abuse and present when he when he was in that you in the primary fairly useful thing. In the general election. If Biden wins I think it'll be hard to Newton or. I mean. You know in win the protests started in June July there was a lot of cannon centrist Democrat advice that basically you need to. New you know sort of triangulation between the protest and down. The between protesters and the and then in the not protests that he really didn't do like you know he. Really big he sort of smoke pretty talk resonant racism alive he didn't sort of moved. Unions to go go betweens I think you're actually do you get into the protest and apparently. Interesting way the public heiress Cate is was probably like a new downside. All upside case. So I think and they mean little they've sort of focused on the midwest states pretty intensely. In terms of their so. I think it's like they're not you know and we and I don't think they've made a lot of mistakes they were maybe they were hit by six. The whole time and that's true I do think they've run a pretty good campaign and trump himself his. You know and made a lot of mistakes in handling coat I think you're talking up campaign tactic to be not candidates messages on not being answered right. Questions are so next question it is from Tyler it is. What would be your early sign that this election point one it will be one very close or to a blowout for Biden. Does a state during a certain rate indicate that or anecdotal evidence like lines at polling places or exit poll data. At starter. Certainly not. Anecdotal evidence of that nature. Yeah I mean look when you start to see. States and even counties. We're the complete county vote is again and we're sure that has mailed multiples early ballots plus everything else right. Then you can start to make some inferences a few different types attorneys that virtually diverse and replace in the US and Biden's outperforming. Clinton by you know the net of seven points each one and you could say oh those polls seem that it probably about right parents can win by eight or nine points right. That's pretty by an area right I'm you know people are looking her. Certainty. And you're just not gonna get it until. The very least large numbers of counties are finished counting right. I know I guess a flight. Even have to say oh well what if what if the Democrats are to have more turnout and some of these states and they had between sixteen which may happen soon. Even then doesn't really matter because it was a big Republican turnout Election Day that mitigates that was just it's just not much you can really have. And happen accidental certainty about until we actually get complete sets of returns. Art here is a fun one I guess or just a very hypothetical speculative one. From Colette she asked. Gut reaction on who will be the Republican nominee in 20/20 four does of one of those questions that we could do an entire podcast on. But I. Just not a week away from 20/20 eight maybe we can garner and in this circle and it's you can voice your priors art. Brackets in pants. Opted to not do Mike Jensen two Scott. Are nay. Nikki Haley. I think I got I guess I'd say yet. Now I get around. On I'm gotten trapped Tom kind of Brian and that every time he C. We are you like my cast. Please and nice list of people. Who deftly. Who know me. There expression is also a kind of theoretical one and comes from the UK. The question as I mean treat to hear of views on how biting can get beyond the division and go about human aiding the country. If he wins. I'm a Brit by the way it's or nothing to do with me really Justin during the show and interested in US politics. So if Biden were to win that's torture and he's campaigned heavily on this idea that. You know America being an American to orbit and a partisanship and he can unite the country. Is that like hope and change kind of thing that fall by the wayside as soon as policy happens or is that something that's achievable. IA. And think that the country we'll still be very partisan. It's even Biden wins. I think he certainly appeals to a broader swath of Republicans like I'm not I'm not saying that's not true. Still think that we'll have that divided as it will have places like fox that will still V. Up whole represented another poll American opinion. Says this person is asking like will Biden unite America and the way his campaign rhetoric says he will. And all will be well and the world will be restored fairy tale like to let it was. Before. You know there was trump. The answers now like the answer is that you'll probably have some pretty contentious in Republican. Opposition although you know if he wins probably more. Hewlett registered Republicans will will be on its side and you're gonna get into in 20/20 Juan. Lots of news stories about. Super progressives agenda is that are sneaking into Biden's moderate administration and then you know you could almost see it playing out so. I don't think we're fixing partisanship in America I've acted. Such as a trump has been basically 42%. Approve 52% disapprove there is it mistress so. Q zero. Is our path for Biden to be here to approve 42 disapprove basically flipped those numbers. I think there is and that are not predicting it will happen but I do think in one sort of advantage he has is. I think it says and that is lesson that I think is so the truth like in some ways the feature ALC warrant and so on. I think are going to be positioned to constantly complain. Did Biden is not liberal enough which might play into the this if he can continue to be played cast as the as the part of the adult in the room between the two warring factions beach party. One article I think it's really part of the right part of his partner obviously Parnell. I think the path for him. To maintain. Public and you know who already know to be present as they have. You know the two parties are divided and even as the country's very polarized between the parties. But Biden has been able to make himself seem like a little bit tenant not totally with the Democrats. And I wonder decking continue. In on some low lying if I were him my mate you DOC to criticize me. Sharply every ten days or so. Yeah I mean Biden's whole message was pay out when he unify the country submit beavers her take that literally up to point in time. But I not a member Obama won in 2008 by a margin that. But frankly is pretty similar to the march in the polls predict for buying policy that comes true or not it was big event first black president has grew reading chapter 73%. Or whatever and then. The GOP voted unanimously it's a stimulus package write a homes and they've got whipped in the 2010. Mid terms. Saw you know here's a honeymoon that may last a little bit longer if you in a landslide if you're burning any unit message to covenant that much longer. Yeah just I don't want to discuss much longer but I using that like when I've been talking to people they've been bringing up the parallels between now and 2000. Crisis. Figure who says he will unify. And then like immediate. Reacts like that let acting air parallels to look at those V Matt election this. Our next question. It is turner expect is expected to be higher in this election but how much overlap will there be from 2016. Will just be an additional ten to twenty million voters. Or is the electorate significantly different this year compared to last auction. I mean. There is some evidence that younger voters are turning out in bigger numbers a river the electorate itself is getting older countries getting older. So yes I mean I think younger voters seems to be where you have the biggest increase potentially. May be in the sun don't you have more. Hispanic. And lectured other member of that truck is doing actually getting a larger share apparently of the Hispanic and black vote. But yet. You'll have new people electric and 155. Million people turn out. Arts of those that's question also comes from across the pond. And is another one at which it's not a whole podcast on but the question is as someone who has only ever hired to stroll into polling locations in England and and Ireland to vote in our elections what's with all the -- to vote even two weeks before the election. Lack of polling stations act of staff complicated voting procedures. Or all these just isolated cases that get coverage. You don't so does this plays into Adobe kind of debt that has been playing out. On the Internet and in in the media which is like how much of of this is about the way we structure our elections and voting and is this voter suppression. Order is the fact that there's like a five hour line before polls open on the first day of early voted eight. More about like record high enthusiasm and not necessarily indicative ports. York say for example gives people a lot of waste a vote email everybody a valid they have. Was it like seminary days early voting which it is not enough but as you know they never had early voting. Before any Cuba on Election Day right if you choose to. Attend early voting the first day it's open that's of one method of securities can take little bit longer. I mean you know you probably would want. Mower. Poll workers and a few more polling stations open right. But like. But you look at the yes look at the totality of options right I am less bothered. By long lines in Manhattan or in Georgia if they offer a lot of early voting in at some point in the process you'll have a shorter line or you can vote. By mail or you can go on Election Day. You know I'm more bothered by a weighs in a can are people who vote at all. But yet a sign of enthusiasm I think obviously. You know New York is also not known forward. I shall we say highly efficient election administration. Fact that I kind. Yet. I mean in my view you should be able to vote in person ideally in less than thirty minutes and is not clear reason why that's not the case in acting. In. That's not the case in Georgia or rather until listeners in New York either so I think it's not necessarily it is. If we had we and a parliament into the making it easier to vote. They're probably requires more money in the voting system more as a zone on the beach and there are polling places everybody to do devote. And so on like if such a bill or. I have a hard time seeing the Republicans in Washington signing on to subsidy proposal right now. So that is the problem but I don't think so that is in when we that the partisan problem with the Republicans. In another way it's not in the peak in under the current funding we have now. Election administration is not very good in Blue States or in red states at times. How bad is like the data suggests across the country if you're a heavily black or Latino area you have to wait longer to vote and that's. In line and that's I think that's across. That's because again Blue States in red season and there's an inequality. Based on race and income without voting disabuse rest Canada wide spread win it looks like we. Don't currently have the interest of the infrastructure to really. The interest from politicians to fix the infrastructure is not at the level I wish it. Yet and I think it makes it really good point which is like some of this is. Partisan and racists like in Georgy democracy tons of polling centers where where shut down in the past four years. But you know after the 2000 election there was a big push to OK we need new voting machines. Unit we want to refurbish the system. But now you know twenty years later the machines break down a time right like that's one of the reasons for long lines is just like. Paul Porter. The quick rate select some of mrs. Just like not experience it's just add. Bureaucracy. Which is. Are so let's wrap things up win this question and it's an important one. It is. What do you think the role of the media including 530. War in its last should be. In a scenario where the president refuses to concede despite clear data that he lost. Well I think we emphasize the clear data can pick. I think there's also a flip side in this winner. If trump wins. And he wins legitimately. And I think Libya lot of experience accusations about. Stealing the election or were not there in between cases right there are cases where. Trump wins because a large. Percentage of mail ballots get thrown out or something in Pennsylvania. Which is not the result of the courts should per say but just the law that about the naked ballots in Pennsylvania so they're army which have to like. Not be running around. Screaming in you know and kind of provide. We just don't we isn't yet yet instantly super easy answer. Our job as the media has never changed it is to say what the country's. And you know see clearly. And that's our job this in this role is like is is is to do and you'll probably get flak from. The right if it and it from the left of trying to win it and you know I think it's just. But it not been so it's not that complicated answer it's like to tell the truth. And to tell you when people you know. To the best of our. If trump does somehow still the election and I think I thirty -- Business becomes little bit different you know what I mean. You know it was make a disclaimer in our forecasts that. That this assumes her new kind of shenanigans. Beyond the usual voter suppression which experts sniffed at by the way. But like. You know I mean be it seminal. Event that we we we kind of are at this point now. Me deals will be better thought for our last model talk whatever right we kinda are at this point now weird. Forward trump to lose something. I would be very careful high priestess write something has to kind of go wrong for him to you the polling is really run. Order. Something about the administration election was wrong right we're look at the polling on its not that hard to make up but it. Six point deficit Pennsylvania it's hard it's very hard it's not impossible. But we're kind of now giving the point now where it seems like these latest polls are not drifting toward trumpet techne neglecting. Away from him it's hard to say. There's got to be a really big pulling air something really weird has to happen for him to win right. Different than 26 team we're just a little marginal pulling there was an African to win. But the porn warns us question is. Into the media I think fact it is a good job this in general I think really important. Four yes. I think it's more likely that trump is likely Hussein is leading things and questioned legitimate accounts of the election in question was adamant calls and question legitimate facts of the elections and in some ways. He most important thing will be for the immediate soon. The taxable not bowl site this and that's amendment or four years it's still important. Stroke Olympics yet you run a Twitter account for a New York is not necessarily to. Repeat what's front says word for word even if the president's words are usually important. If the words about the election. Pennsylvania has you know you know Pennsylvania has headed and 20000 new fake voters like the key is not to repeat debt. But he's a ball straw also accuse. So and so making it both I think as I think that's the big role of the media here he soon can we. Figure it out collectively or individually. How to be factual errors both sides and I suspect that's work. Readers uliassi here in Kentucky for example we had. Actually did us something where. Governor Matt bed and the Republican ran against this year the Democrat. Or governor. Denton. Laws I doubt the election night he started making some claims about boating you irregularities he would never specified. And media here that are pretty clear jobless saying okay you say their ability learned it varies. We haven't found any yet if you Green Zone to us. Will be capital into them and otherwise it appears that this year won the most votes and there was a clarity about saying let him Clara saying this. These used to be factual. Not you know to negotiate between various critics on each side and I think that'll be important next week as the. Art well that's I think a good place to leave things so thank you. Neat. Thank you. Thank you think that we'll. Clerics. It and and thank you are they asking. My name is due enters to reach out as in the virtual control room. Claire editor courtesies on audio editing you get in touch by emailing us at podcast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show rivas a rating or review in the apple heart test score or tell someone about us also remember to subscribe on YouTube. Base or lessening and Wilson's. And yeah. Yeah.
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